Nuclear Spending Protected, Despite Excess Capability

On the radar: Why nuclear spending shouldn’t be off the table; Prospects with Iran’s pragmatists; Rough spot for US-Russia relations; UK paring down arsenal; Dick Garwin makes things work; and That time atmospheric testing almost kept NASA from going to the moon.

August 13, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Nuclear budget - The Pentagon is struggling to find budget savings while looking to make cuts in areas it has excess capacity. At the same time, President Obama and his military leadership have determined that the U.S. has more nuclear weapons than necessary. This seems like a perfect place to cut, but, as Tom Collina notes, the Pentagon has said it won’t touch nuclear spending.

--”Clearly, the Pentagon has yet to accept the fact that, given the depth of its budget hole, everything must be on the table. We cannot afford sacred cows. Nuclear weapons, inherited from the Cold War and poorly suited to today's threats, must compete with other, higher priorities. If Hagel takes nukes off the table, then every dollar not taken from excess nuclear weapons must come from somewhere else,” writes Collina. Full post in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/16f2IXO

Critical moment - Iran is ready for “serious and substantive” negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, but only if “the US shows goodwill and mutual respect,” said Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s new president at his first news conference today. Early statements such as this, “could signal a new course, somewhat different from the bitter confrontations of recent years.”

--The West should therefore “resume negotiations soon to explore the depth of Mr. Rouhani’s seriousness and whether his election has come with room to maneuver...The Western powers should swallow hard and show up ready to talk. Mr. Rouhani’s demand for mutual respect is not unreasonable. Talks should proceed with urgency,” writes the editorial board of The Washington Post. Full editorial here. http://ow.ly/nSYll

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Chilled relations, stalled agenda - President Obama has said his administration and his military advisors are ready to reduce the nuclear arsenal, while Russia’s also continues to decline. What is preventing the two countries from going to lower levels of nuclear weapons? Joe Cirincione talks with MSNBC’s Ezra Klein about the politics - domestic, diplomatic and bureaucratic - that are impeding further nuclear reductions. Video from “All In.” http://nbcnews.to/19qnPsf

--”When Obama says Putin is trapped in Cold War logic, it’s true. But so is Obama and so is his bureaucracy,” said Joe Cirincione to Ezra Klein for The Washington Post. Full interview here. http://wapo.st/13hoVno

Playing nice - Last week’s meeting between Secretaries Chuck Hagel and John Kerry, and their Russian counterparts, appeared congenial and productive despite disagreements over Moscow’s decision to grant temporary asylum to leaker Edward Snowden. The two sides agreed to continue to work together on issues such as the civil war in Syria, Iran and North Korea’s nuclear programs, and further nuclear reductions. http://ow.ly/nSVIW

Last chance? - Iran’s nuclear crisis is indelibly tied with the country’s domestic economy and politics - particularly the historical tug of war between rival political ideologies. Ahmadinejad, aligned with the principalists, drove the regime into the ground. Rouhani's new government of technocrats “represents the regime's rebalancing,” writes Alireza Nader. Though Rouhani’s “opponents are waiting for their chance” in the spotlight again.

--“Even a hint of failure could bring out the knives, not only imperiling Iran's stability, but also a peaceful way out of its nuclear crisis.” As such, the window for opportunity presented by the election of Rouhani may be narrowing. “The United States should recognize the opportunity before it, for it could be the last,” writes Nader in U.S. News. http://ow.ly/nT0PS

Tweet - @Reuters: U.S. should hold confidential direct talks with Iran: think tank. http://reut.rs/14t7dHI

Tweet - @AlMonitor: #Iran has an experienced president with a clear mandate to initiate talks with US - Obama should take advantage - almon.co/byu

Sizing down - The UK is slowly and quietly paring down its total arsenal from 225 to 180, removing about 3 warheads a year from its nuclear arsenal and dismantling them or preparing them for storage. Rob Edwards at The Guardian has the story. http://bit.ly/147ol6y

Profile - “Indispensable Outsider: Richard Garwin has helped advise U.S. presidents, IBM, and secret agencies on how to make things work.” Article by Ann Finkbeiner in Science. (pdf) http://bit.ly/14JryiN

Tweet - @CarlRobichaud: My first dispatch from #Kazakhstan: Hearing stories from some of the last living survivors of #nuclear testing #IRPKZ http://t.co/oa2EgryS5D

Speed reads -

--“India Activates Atomic Reactor On First Nuclear Submarine, Navy to Deploy Arihant in Two Years” at the Huffington Post. http://ow.ly/nSUBI

--“How to Save the Middle East from Nuclear War” by Prince Turki Al Faisal at Defense One. http://ow.ly/nSUSG

--”Edward Snowden in Moscow: A Case Study in Diplomatic Mismanagement” by Steven Pifer of Brookings. http://bit.ly/14Htsh4

Events:

--”Challenges for Congressional Action on Extending the U.S.-Republic of Korea Nuclear Cooperation Agreement,” Mark Holt, CRS. August 15, 2:00-3:00 PM @SAIS, Rome Building. Details here. http://ow.ly/nT74p

--”Extended Deterrence and Strategic Stability in Northeast Asia” Brad Roberts. August 26, 9:00-10:30 AM @ Stimson Center. Details here. http://ow.ly/nT7nA

--International Day Against Nuclear Tests. August 30.

Dessert:

Apollo and Starfish Prime - In July 1962, the U.S. tested a 1.4 megaton nuclear warhead in the upper atmosphere (248 miles up). The test, Starfish Prime, “created an artificial radiation belt that enveloped the Earth and intensified the Van Allen belts, fallout NASA quickly realized could threaten its Apollo program in the race to the Moon. For a brief period, it wasn’t clear whether manned space flight could continue at all.” Full story from Amy Shira Teitel at Ars Technica. http://ars.to/147pPxL