Obama's Signals to Khamenei

On the radar: Back channel diplomacy with Iran; Obstructing breakout, shaping decisions; CRS on SSBN(X); Sanctions cost 25¢ a gallon; War of words; U.S. trained the MEK; Science on not testing; Gallucci on fissile security; Next steps with North Korea; Iranians and the regime; and the bomb on TIME.

April 6, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Obama to Erdogan to Khamenei - President Obama signaled to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei that the U.S. would accept an Iranian civilian nuclear program if Iran Khamenei could back up his claim that Iran “will never pursue nuclear weapons.” Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan conveyed the verbal message. David Ignatius at The Washington Post has the scoop.

--”The challenge for negotiators is whether it’s possible to turn Khamenei’s public rhetoric into a serious and verifiable commitment not to build a bomb.” http://owl.li/a7vbz

--Followup question from Politico’s Austin Wright, “Why does the administration want us to know this?” http://owl.li/a7vcL

Policy options toward Khamenei - “The challenge for the United States is to devise policies that would make it as difficult as possible for Khamenei to retain domestic support and international sympathy if he were to go for a bomb,” reads an issue brief from the Arms Control Association’s Greg Thielmann.

--Recommendations: Stop threatening a preventive attack. Pursue negotiations nuclear and other issues where security interest overlap. And “Challenge Khamenei to act on his moral condemnations of nuclear weapons by agreeing to interim steps” toward a WMD-free zone in the Middle East.

--Full report, “The Breakout Option: Raising the Bar for the Supreme Leader,” here. http://owl.li/a7vDu

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: “Via @FAScientists, Congressional Research Service report on the SSBN(X)” (pdf) http://owl.li/a7vPW

Sanctions at the pump - Sanctions on Iran raise the price of gas in the U.S. by 25¢ a gallon, reports The Christian Science Monitor. The effect on global oil supplies from sanctions on Iran is estimated to increase the price per barrel of crude by $10, which transfers to prices at the gas pump. Lesson: while politicians usually act like sanctions only affect targeted countries, economics suggest otherwise. http://owl.li/a7ved

Turkey, Iran, and nuclear talks - The “war of words” between Turkey and Iran might mean trouble for the next round of Iran nuclear talks. Iran ruled out Istanbul as a venue for the talks because of Turkey’s position on Syria; Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan responded by accusing Iran of a “lack of honesty.”

--”Erdogan’s comments suggested that Iran, which has few allies on the nuclear issue, is becoming even more isolated...Cancellation of this round of talks would not be totally unexpected.” The LA Times reports. http://owl.li/a7vfF

Sy Hersh on MEK - In 2005, the Joint Special Operations Command began training members of the Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK), an Iranian dissident group on the State Department’s list of foreign terrorist organizations. Training ended sometime before 2009. Hersh quotes a former intel official who says that targeted killings and other operations in Iran are “primarily being done by M.E.K. through liaison with the Israelis, but the United States is now providing the intelligence.” http://owl.li/a7vgY

--Kicker: MEK members were trained in to subvert Iran’s nuclear program at the Nevada Test Site - where the U.S. has conducted 1,021 nuclear detonations. (DOE pdf) http://owl.li/a7vi0

CTBT - Summing up the latest National Academies study on the CTBT, Science reports, “it would be possible to keep America's stockpile of nuclear weapons safe and reliable without testing, and that treaty-monitoring technologies now make it impossible for states to hide a test big enough to be useful.” (paywall). http://owl.li/a7vje

Fissile zero - “The threat of nuclear terror is not just possible, it is quite plausible; if effective action is not taken, over time, it is probable,” writes Robert Gallucci in The Huffington Post.

--The U.S. should take the lead in improving global nuclear security by forswearing production of fissile material, Gallucci concludes. http://owl.li/a7vmo

Quote - “No GMD (Ground Based Mid Course Defense) tests against a true intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) have yet been conducted.” Dr. Michael Gilmore, Director of DOD’s Operational Test and Evaluation, detailed some GMD shortcomings in a recent HASC hearing. h/t Nukes of Hazard. http://owl.li/a7vnQ

After the satellite launch - The U.S. has two options for dealing with the current situation with North Korea, Morton Abramowitz writes: denounce the launch and apply sanctions, increasing tensions and the risk of another nuclear test, or continue with high-level negotiations.

-- “A high-level negotiating effort is not likely to go over easily here or with U.S. allies - and could backfire with Pyongyang,” Abramowitz writes. “But this new approach offers the only way of moving the whole issue to a more conclusive stage.” http://owl.li/a7voB

A wedge between the regime and the people - “The West could score a major victory over Iran’s nuclear program – and the regime itself – by improving relations with the Iranian people,” writes Meir Javedanfar in The Diplomat. He argues that doing so will require the West to ensure that sanctions to not deprive the Iranian people of food and medicine. http://owl.li/a7vpB

TIME and the bomb - The bomb has made a lot of appearances on TIME’s covers over the years. Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data lists his favorites. Included: Einstein, Oppenheimer, Ivy Mike, “The Missile,” and a cubist representation of the U.S. arsenal. http://owl.li/a7vqA