The Opportunity with North Korea

On the radar: Gov. Richardson on talking with the North; Sec. Donley talks bomber, budgets; Turkey and BMD politics; A call for U.S. ratification of CTBT; Guinea just ratified; The problems with missile defense; and a Proposal for a mil-mil hotline with Iran.

September 20, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

An opportunity with North Korea - Today “we have a diplomatic opportunity with North Korea. Let’s seize it,” writes Gov. Bill Richardson. Richardson gives some perspective and policy options as envoys to the six-party talks move to make progress on nuclear negotiations with the North.

--Among the policy proposals Richardson recently offered in meetings with top North Korean officials: IAEA monitors at the Yongbyon uranium enrichment facility, negotiations to buy the North’s fresh nuclear fuel rods, a North-South military hotline, and the recovery of the remains of American soldiers killed during the Korean War. Guest post on the Ploughshares Fund blog. http://ow.ly/6zqXW

New bomber in the face of tighter budgets - Speaking at the Air Force Association conference, Air Force Secretary Michael Donley said, “There is no question we face difficult choices, but with these priorities firmly in mind, we can still advance Air Force capabilities in important areas, such as...a new Long Range Strike bomber...“ Also on Sec. Donley’s lengthy list of things he wants to help escape budget knives: the entire nuclear triad.

--Noting the uncertain budget times, Secretary Donley said, ”It’s safe to say that every single line of the budget is under scrutiny.” http://ow.ly/6zpPZ

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Complicated politics for Turkey and missile defense - Turkey recently signed an agreement to host a U.S. radar as part of NATO’s missile defense system, in what is being billed as the biggest strategic decision with Turkey in the last 20 years. The move is catching some political criticism from Congressional Republicans. http://ow.ly/6zxx8

”Everything is on the table” - including the nuclear weapons budget, according to top DOD officials. Defense budget cuts from the debt deal could affect nuclear modernization plans, including the next generation bomber and submarine. “We have to recapitalize all three legs [of the nuclear triad], and we don’t have the money to do it,” said General James Cartwright, former Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chairman. http://ow.ly/6zt31

Ratify the CTBT - Failing to ratify the CTBT “means that we are not reaping the full security advantage of the treaty that the United States worked to achieve,” write Susan Shaer and Kathy Crandall Robinson. “Put simply, we don’t need to test nuclear weapons — we need to prevent other countries from testing.” http://ow.ly/6zpDg

155 countries and counting - Guinea has ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Only two African nations - Mauritius and Somalia - have not signed the treaty while 11 have yet to ratify. http://ow.ly/6zvlu

More than just sanctions - A New York Times editorial argued for “tougher sanctions” on Iran as the only way to get Tehran’s attention. Eli Clifton calls for “more nuanced discussion of the various diplomatic levers available (PDF) to the U.S. and its allies.” http://ow.ly/6zrbX

The technical and strategic faults of missile defense - “The central conundrum of midcourse missile defense remains that while it creates incentives for adversaries and competitors of the United States to increase their missile stockpiles, it offers no credible combat capability to protect the United States or its allies from this — increased — weaponry,” writes Yousaf Butt in the International Herald Tribune. http://ow.ly/6ztpM

Joe on the Bill Press Show - Joe Cirincione discussed Palestine’s bid for statehood, American hikers in Iran, and Iran’s nuclear program on the Bill Press Show. http://ow.ly/6yJAN

Close calls - ”A series of "near-miss" encounters between American and Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf is pushing U.S. officials concerned about a broader conflict to weigh establishing a direct military hot line with the Islamic republic,” reports Jay Solomon in the Wall Street Journal (paywall). http://ow.ly/6znMr

Early Event - “Securing the Benefits of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty” with Michael Krepon, David Koplow and Daryl Kimball. Sept. 22 from 3:00-4:00 at the Stimson Center. RSVP and details here. http://ow.ly/6ynDk