Positive Signals from Iran Ahead of Diplomatic Talks

On the radar: Larijani talks monitoring, fuel supply; Ross on diplomacy; DPRK Launch in April; Budget realities and nuclear spending; Warheads getting expensive; Engaging Iran on Afghanistan; Perspective on Iran’s nuclear program; Preventing nuclear terror; and $6 per gallon gas.

March 16, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Larijani on nuclear talks - Mohammad Javad Larijani, “a high-level advisor to Iran's supreme leader said his country is ready to allow ‘permanent human monitoring’ of its nuclear program in exchange for Western cooperation but also warned Iran is prepared to defend itself against military strikes.” Christiane Amanpour interviewed Larijani for ABC News.

--From the story: “Larijani said the West should sell Iran 20 percent enriched uranium and provide all the help that nuclear nations are supposed to provide to countries building civilian nuclear power plants." http://owl.li/9Hpas

Signals and serious diplomacy - “I think there is time for diplomacy,” Ambassador Dennis Ross said in an NPR interview. “When the president says...the time will run out, it's another way of signaling both the Iranians, don't come into negotiations and simply play for time...”

--”But it was also a message to the Israelis...The diplomacy will be serious. It'll be real. We need the time and space to pursue it.” http://owl.li/9HmEZ

Nork Rocket Launch - North Korea is planning a missile launch to put a satellite into space. The announcement creates a dilemma, given North Korea’s Feb. 29 commitment not to test long-range missiles as part of a deal with the U.S. WSJ has the story. http://owl.li/9HmYK

--As a reminder, the North’s last “space” launch attempt in 2009 put a satellite into “subaquatic orbit in the Pacific Ocean.” Via Arms Control Wonk. http://owl.li/9HmXg

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Quote - “Realistically,” in that the Obama nuclear spending pledge was made “nine months before the Budget Control Act became law, falling 4 percent short of the $7.9 billion target is reasonable given the fiscal reality facing us today,” Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) said at a recent hearing. h/t Nukes of Hazard. http://owl.li/9HmIl

Nuclear spending analysis - Despite steady reductions in the U.S. nuclear arsenal since the end of the Cold War, funding for stockpile maintenance has increased significantly - by 58% since 2000.

--A new report from Robert Civiak and Tri-Valley CAREs debunks common myths about the need for modernization funding and offers recommendations for cuts that total $1.5 billion in budget savings.

--Read the full report here. (pdf) http://owl.li/9HmKQ

”Engaging Iran on Afghanistan” - “Engaging Iran as one of Afghanistan’s key neighbors as US and international forces withdraw would enhance prospects for a peaceful exit, and for productive Afghan-Iran relations once foreign forces are gone,” writes Ellen Laipson in a new report from the Stimson Center.

--Laipson notes that US-Iran cooperation on Afghanistan is worth doing for its own sake. While it could build confidence for engaging with Iran on other issues, policymakers should have modest expectations. There is also a risk that continued tension over the nuclear issue could adversely affect Iran’s willingness to engage on regional issues. Read the full report. (pdf) http://owl.li/9HmVo

Report - “Iran in Perspective: Holding Iran to Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Technology” by Barry Blechman and Taj Moore for the Stimson Center. (pdf) http://owl.li/9HnpC

Committing to nuclear security - “Nuclear terrorism is a real and present danger for all states,” write Kenneth Brill and Kenneth Luongo in The New York Times. Preventing it will require a global framework convention to fill gaps in existing voluntary security measures.

--Such a convention should “commit states to an effective standard of nuclear security practices, incorporate relevant existing international agreements, and give the I.A.E.A. the mandate to support nuclear security by evaluating whether states are meeting their nuclear security obligations and providing assistance to those states that need help in doing so.” http://owl.li/9HmMp

Event - The Atlantic Council’s Iran Task Force launches their latest report, "Iran's Internal Politics: The Supreme Leader Grows Ever Lonelier at the Top," at a panel discussion with Yasmin Alem, Suzanne Maloney, Alireza Nader and moderator Barbara Slavin. Monday the 19th at 12pm. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/9HnPC

SWIFT cuts off Iran - Iran is about to be further cut off from global commerce, as SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, said it is severing ties with Iranian banks. This further limits Iranian banks’ ability to conduct global financial transactions and trade. AP has the story. http://owl.li/9Hn23

Economic effects - An Israeli military strike on Iran this year seems less likely now than it did earlier in the year, but it’s worth keeping in mind the effects such a strike would have: gas prices of $6 per gallon, market analysts told The Hill. http://owl.li/9HmGk