Questioning the Value and Cost of the Triad

On the radar: Gen. Kehler sees triad for now, dyad a future option; Bosworth out, Davis in; Tauscher on missile defense; Hints of US-DPRK bilaterals; Careless rhetoric on alleged Iran plot; US-China strategic dialogue; and Iran’s nuclear swag.

October 19, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Kehler on the triad - “Sustaining a triad is the right thing to do now,” STRATCOM Commander Gen. Robert Kehler said yesterday. He left open the possibility of a dyad someday, however: "As you look into the strategic future, the answer about whether or not we're going to need a triad...depends on the strategic situation we find ourselves in."

--"And, of course, there's a budgetary dimension to this," Gen. Kehler added. "As we look to modernize, in particular, can we in fact spend the resources to modernize the entire triad?"

--”It's worth noting that those who embrace it tend to be those running it, while the nation's top military officers -- who have to juggle competing demands, and not just the nation's nukes -- are beginning to weigh the wisdom of the Cold War-era triangle...” says Mark Thompson at Battleland. http://owl.li/729OU

Bosworth stepping down - U.S. envoy to North Korea Stephen Bosworth is stepping down ahead of the upcoming round of talks with Pyongyang. Glyn Davis, U.S. Ambassador to the IAEA is expected to replace Bosworth. AP reports. http://owl.li/729bd

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

Tauscher on missile defense - "We cannot provide legally binding commitments, nor can we agree to limitations on missile defenses, which must necessarily keep pace with the evolution of the threat.” Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher said at the Atlantic Council briefing yesterday. “But through cooperation we can demonstrate the inherent characteristics of the system and its inability to undermine Russian deterrent forces or strategic stability." http://owl.li/72afT

--”Cooperation” includes written assurances that the system is not targeted at Russia, as well as an invitation for Russia to use its own equipment to measure US missile defense flight tests. http://owl.li/729Hs

Tweet - @PJCrowley: “#RickPerry said tonight he wants to defund the #UN, which includes the #IAEA, its nuclear watchdog. How is that in the national interest?”

White House hints at DPRK talks - The Obama administration has been hinting at a new willingness to move towards bilateral talks with Pyonyang. The Christian Science Monitor editorial board sees a chance of success: “If China plays along, perhaps Obama can also find a way to talk seriously with North Korea, while avoiding a repeat of past failed agreements.” http://owl.li/729SV

Quote - “They’ve been itching to go to war against Iran for a long, long time. This is exactly what they did leading up to the war in Iraq, and the danger was not there...People are suggesting we go to war over this. That is such a careless attitude,” said GOP presidential contender Ron Paul in response to questions about hawkish rhetoric surrounding the alleged Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. http://owl.li/729QL

GBI contract - “The Pentagon has delayed until December the award of a contract that could unseat Boeing Co as the current prime contractor for the U.S. long-range missile shield,” reports Reuters. Value of Boeing’s GBI contract since 2001: $18 billion. http://owl.li/72aiO

Event - “Making the U.S.-Chinese Nuclear Dialogue Effective” with Li Bin and Gregory Kulacki. Wed. October 26 @ 9:00 am. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/729W1

Better than a bottleopener - The Iranian delegation to the IAEA general conference last month gave out some swag. Instead of the usual corporate key chain, pen, or coffee mug, Iran handed out centrifuge-shaped laser pointers. Jeff Lewis found the swag, Laura Rozen has the story. http://owl.li/729Xs