Rethinking Nuclear Strategy

On the radar: Matching strategy to threats; What the Iran report really says; Iran responds to sanctions; Donilon: sanctions are working; Joe talks Pakistan; Perspective on BMD tension; And Don’t believe every poll you read.

November 28, 2011 | Edited by Mary Kaszynski

Nuclear Strategy for the 21st Century - “The American nuclear arsenal is badly mismatched to the nuclear threats we face. We face rogue states that are seeking to acquire nuclear weapons; materials that go toward building nuclear weapons in unsafe areas; the potential for regional conflicts to go nuclear...But none of those threats necessitates a massive nuclear deterrent of thousands of warheads ready to launch at the drop of a hat,” writes Joshua Foust.

--”We can maintain a deterrent with a smaller force, and we can spend the money we save on other programs elsewhere that are more responsive to national security concerns.” ”http://owl.li/7Hdpk

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Iran-UK tensions - “Iran's parliament on Sunday approved a bill requiring both Iran and Britain to withdraw their respective ambassadors from each other's countries,” AP reports. “[The Iranian] parliament's decision is seen as a reaction to London's support of a new U.S. package of sanctions in Iran.” http://owl.li/7HdTI

Donilon: Iran increasingly isolated - Speaking at the Brookings Institute Tuesday, National Security adviser Tom Donilon said that “the administration’s pressure campaign had left Iran’s leaders economically strained, diplomatically isolated and rent by internal divisions.” Iran’s support of the Assad regime in Syria will further deepen Iran’s isolation from the Arab world, Donilon predicted. The New York Timesreports. http://owl.li/7Hdtw

How the media has misread the Iran report - “The IAEA's comprehensive report [on Iran] is a strong indication that US intelligence in 2007 on Iran's nuclear program was based on solid evidence that has not been upended by the latest information,” write Greg Thielmann and Benjamin Loehrke in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. “Pundits and politicians who use the latest IAEA report to attack the 2007 NIE are distorting the information, at best -- and, at worst, are playing politics with national security.” http://owl.li/7HdSf

Risks of nuclear Pakistan - The NATO airstrikes that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers has racheted up US-Pakistan tensions. Further complicating the situation is Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities, which make Pakistan “ probably the most dangerous country on Earth.” Joe Cirncione says. For Joe’s take on Pakistan check out his interview with MSNBC’s Alex Witt.

War drumbeat fading - “Because Iran's progress has been mostly in the form of research, rather than any actual infrastructure, Western states will likely only take economic and diplomatic measures until Iran makes any decisive moves – such as expelling international monitors – that hint at an "all-out bid" for nuclear weapons,” reports the Christian Science Monitor. http://owl.li/7HduU

Our troops deserve better - Our troops deserve better than spending hundreds of billions on outdated nuclear weapons. A new TV ad from the American Values Network and American Security Project calls for effective defense spending and a nuclear strategy for the 21st century. Watch the video here: http://owl.li/7HdQE

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Sen Ayotte (R-NH): "As we make difficult budget decisions, we must have reliable financial data." bit.ly/vck753

Medvedev and missile defense - Dmitry Medvedev’s announcement that US-Russia missile defense negotiations have reached an impasse and that Russia will take retaliatory measures against the NATO system, should be seen in light of Russia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, Amb. Steve Pifer says.

“Russia holds parliamentary elections in ten days time. Just as one can rarely go wrong criticizing Russia in American politics, taking a tough line against the United States and NATO plays well with much of the Russian electorate. Note also that Medvedev said...that the door remains open for further discussions with Washington and NATO.” http://owl.li/7HdLd

Public opinion on the military option - Over half of respondents in a new Quinnipiac University poll oppose military action against Iran. But half of respondents say the US should take military action if economic sanctions fail.

--While the poll results are disturbing, “the pollsters may have seriously misled respondents by suggesting that there is conclusive evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program or that a military attack could be effective in destroying Iran’s alleged weapons program,” writes Eli Clifton. “Such assertions, and the resulting polling statistics, serve to tilt public opinion toward preemptive military action when intelligence reports paint a far more complex picture of Iran’s nuclear program.” http://owl.li/7HdnG