Returning to Strategic Engagement with Iran

On the radar: Zarkaria on reengaging Iran; Advantage - US; Virtual diplomacy with Iranians; Defense and the jobs argument; Panetta’s take on North Korea; and Tunneling into China’s strategic challenges.

October 27, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Course correction with Iran - “Obama should return to his original approach and test the Iranians to see if there is any room for dialogue and agreement. Engaging with Iran, putting its nuclear program under some kind of supervision and finding areas of common interest (such as Afghanistan) would all be important goals,” writes Fareed Zakaria.

--”Iran has its own deep divisions, and many in the regime feel threatened by any opening to the West. But that is precisely why the administration should keep searching for ways to create that opening. Strategic engagement with an adversary can go hand in hand with a policy that encourages change in that country.”

--The administration’s pressure-intensive policies have “paid off in some measure”. But sanctions are also having a perverse impact, notes Zakaria. “Their basic effect has been to weaken civil society and strengthen the state — the opposite of what we should be trying to do in that country.” http://owl.li/7aPE1

U.S. keeps major lead over Russia in nuclear weapons - Both the U.S. and Russia have made slight cuts to their nuclear arsenals, according to new data on New START. But “The U.S. edge is secure for the foreseeable future,” says Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. The U.S. has the advantage in both deployed warheads (over 200 more) and delivery systems (over 100 more), Walter Pincus reports. http://owl.li/7aOa6

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Opening to Iranians, challenging the regime - “The United States plans to open a ‘virtual embassy’ for Iran that will give Iranians online information about visas and student exchange programs despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday,” reports Reuters.

--Speaking with BBC Persia, Secretary Clinton said, "We do not want a conflict with Iran but we do want to see the rulers of Iran change their outlook and their behavior." http://owl.li/7aOf1

Defense jobs and opportunity costs - ”Preserving high levels of Pentagon spending at the expense of other programs results in a net reduction in jobs, not an increase; and the Aerospace Industries Association has cooked the books’ in an effort to scare us into spending more on the military than is needed to defend the country,” writes Bill Hartung. http://owl.li/7aOjP

Panetta on North Korea - Sec. Panetta is skeptical that diplomatic talks will convince North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program. Speaking to reporters in South Korea today, he said “There is either going to be an accommodation where they decide to make the right decisions with regards to their future and join the international family of nations ... or, if they continue these provocations, then obviously that’s going to lead to the possibility of escalation and confrontation.” http://owl.li/7aOcF

China’s tunnels and threat perceptions - “What does make the article worth engaging with, however, is its inability to even try to understand China’s strategic challenges and why it might go to some fairly extreme lengths to try to solve them,” writes James Acton of the WSJ’s recent article on China’s nuclear forces and its underground tunnel network.

--”Given the extent of Chinese [strategic] fears, the idea that Beijing might build 3,000 miles of tunnels to protect a small nuclear force should not be beyond belief. After all, it’s not exactly unprecedented for China to try to protect itself from external threats by building a gargantuan defense line, it is?” http://owl.li/7aOlV