The Self-Defeating Military Option

On the radar: North Korea hints at nuclear test; National interests and not striking Iran; DoD not asked for a 300 option; Gen. Kehler: opportunities to reduce further; Brazil’s chance to end the Iran standoff; Sanctions impact; Congress pushes for Iran sanctions; Call to ratify the CTBT; and Touring a Soviet Sub Lair.

April 4, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Warning - “North Korea could carry out another nuclear test if the launch of its long-range rocket leads to the expected suspension of US food aid, a pro-North newspaper in Japan said on Wednesday.” AFP has the story. http://owl.li/a4L8T

Winners and losers from any Iran strike - “An Israeli strike would make matters much worse for the West. Tehran, on the other hand, might arguably reap some benefits from an Israeli strike that only inflicts limited damage on its nuclear program,” writes Trita Parsi for The Daily Beast.

--The Obama administration and the U.S. military strongly oppose a preventive strike on Iran, as a strike would increase the likelihood of Iran getting a bomb rather than prevent it. http://owl.li/a4NgJ

Guidance process and the 300 option - “The Pentagon was never asked to look at options for going to 300 [deployed strategic warheads],” said Amb. Steven Pifer. This calls into question recent press reports, which were promptly turned into political brickbats, that the White House had directed the Pentagon to provide a 300-warhead option in its study of future U.S. nuclear force requirements. John Bennett at DOTMIL has the story. http://owl.li/a4Lby

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Quote - “I think there are opportunities to reduce further [below New START levels]], but I think that there are factors that bear on that ultimate outcome,” STRATCOM Commmander Gen. Robert Kehler said at a recent SASC hearing.

--“It is never our view that we start with numbers. We start with an assessment of the situation we find ourselves in, the strategy, our objectives, et cetera, and ultimately then you get to numbers,” Gen. Kehler added. h/t Nukes of Hazard. http://owl.li/a4LlJ

Can Brazil stop Iran? - Brazil could solve the Iran standoff by renouncing its right to enrich uranium, writes Bernard Arnonson in The New York Times. The move would “take away Iran’s principal argument that the advanced nuclear weapons states are pursuing a form of ‘nuclear apartheid,’” Arnonson argues.

--What’s in it for Brazil? “Renouncing its enrichment rights would overnight catapult Brazil into a position of global leadership on the most urgent security challenge facing the international community.” http://owl.li/a4Li2

Sanctions impact - “The Iran sanctions effort led by the United States appeared to be causing new fractures in the Iranian economy on Tuesday, with leading oil companies in South Africa and Greece suspending imports of Iran’s crude oil,” The New York Times’ Rick Gladstone reports. http://owl.li/a4Ley

Tweet - @NTI_GSN:Scottish Independence May Impact U.S. Trident Missile Program. http://bit.ly/HUTuBG

House, Senate divided - Members of the House are pushing to add sanctions to the Iran sanctions bill already under before the Senate. Sen. Harry Reid argues there is no time to debate or add amendments, and wants to pass the bill as-is. Josh Rogin reports for Foreign Policy. http://owl.li/a4NiP

Event - “NATO, Deterrence and Reassurance: Looking Toward the Chicago Summit and Beyond.” Participants include Steven Pifer, Malcolm Chalmers, Jeffrey McCausland, Leo Michel, Thomas Nichols, Clara O’Donnell, George Perkovich and Paul Schulte. April 16th from 2:00-5:15 at Brookings. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/a4Lom

Defusing the nuclear powder keg - “Ratifying the CTBT is not only a matter of principle. It is not only about supporting world peace and the environment. It is in our security interests.” Jayantha Dhanapala calls on other Asian countries to follow the example of Indonesia in ratifying the CTBT. http://owl.li/a4LrQ

Event - Colin Kahl and Matthew Kroenig debate military strikes against Iran. Tomorrow, 6:30 pm, at the World Affairs Council. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/a4LtO

Deep read - “Nuclear Collisions: Discord, Reform & the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime" by Stephen Miller for the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Full paper here. (pdf) http://owl.li/a4LxX

India’s first sub activated - It is actually one of Russia’s Akula 2-class subs, but is on lease to India for a decade. The sub can carry torpedoes and nuclear-capable cruise missiles, but India has stated it will forgo loading it with nuclear weapons. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://owl.li/a4LCo

Inside a Soviet sub base - Jeremy Hart at Wired got a chance to tour and post some amazing photos from inside the nuclear sub base at the former operational home of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet. The 15,300 square-foot facility could hold 3,000 people and house 6 submarines in its channel. Frightening paragraph: Engineers used a human hair as a humidity gage to keep the environment stable and prevent accidental explosions.

--Encouraging paragraph: ”Now instead of Cold War killers, the bay is home to a glittering array of yachts from all over the world and at the water’s edge instead of subs skulking in and out, throngs of locals indulged in a spot of fishing while shooting the breeze over a couple of beers. If that isn’t a sign of progress, we don’t know what is. “http://owl.li/a4Ns0