Sen. Feinstein: Circumstances Right for Agreement with Iran

On the radar: Feinstein on the best outcome with Iran; Cooler heads prevailing; Plutonium boondoggles; Olmert on strikes; Nuclear policy and politics; Why the CMRR delay makes sense; Greater oversight for B-61; and the House seeks gold standard.

April 30, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Call for diplomacy - “Given the looming threat of an Israeli military strike and the potentially catastrophic reaction in the Middle East, a diplomatic solution offers the best outcome for Iran, Israel and the international community. We must support those efforts,” writes Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) in The San Francisco Chronicle.

--Challenges remain, Sen. Feinstein adds, but there’s reason to believe the talks may succeed: economic sanctions are beginning to take a toll, Iran is more isolated than ever, and prospects for Israeli strike are increasing. http://owl.li/aBxNy

Risk of Iran strike seen as less likely - The rhetoric about striking Iran got pretty heated over the last couple months. However, the risk of war for the near term is now seen as receding, reports James Risen in The New York Times.

--Risen says a number of factors have made conflict less likely. Included factors: cautious optimism in current negotiations with Iran, Iranian moves to avert the implementation of additional sanctions, and a growing divide in Israel between political leaders pushing strikes and former security leaders coming out against confrontation. http://owl.li/aBxLN

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Waste and mismanagement - The U.S. government could spend $10 billion on two nuclear boondoggles. One, Los Alamos’ proposed CMRR, would produce plutonium pits for bombs the military don’t need. The other, the Mixed Oxide fuel facility, would produce plutonium fuel that energy companies don’t want.

--”This is seriously wasteful spending at a time when we should be serious about fiscal responsibility and national security,” writes Joe Cirincione in The Atlantic. Congress appears to see this as well. The White House proposed and Senate and House appropriators agreed to eliminate funding for the CMRR for five years. Similarly, appropriators are moving to cut the MOX program and enhance oversight over the dysfunctional program. http://owl.li/aBxXs

Olmert - Former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert recently voiced his opposition to a military strike on Iran. The New York Times has the quote and story. http://owl.li/aBxSA

Nuclear politics - The nuclear guidance review is almost complete, but election year politics may delay its unveiling, Bryan Bender reports in The Boston Globe.

--The guidance, which officials say may cut the number of deployed strategic warheads to 1,000, will likely meet with pushback from Republicans and could be a political liability for the President and key Democrats in the Senate. http://owl.li/aBxW3

Event - Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Schwartz and Amb. Lincoln Bloomfield at the Stimson Center tomorrow, May 1, noon to 1:30. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/aBzjj

Why the CMRR delay makes sense - “There will be no adverse effects of delaying construction. Moreover, there is no clear need for the CMRR-NF as currently proposed.” From a new report by Lisbeth Gronlund and Stephen Young of The Union of Concerned Scientists. (pdf) http://owl.li/aBxZo

Cost, schedule, and scope - Senate appropriators are recommending putting the breaks on the life extension for the B-61 nuclear bomb, pending better assessment of the program’s cost, schedule, and scope. Without precise program estimates, the Senate Appropriations Committee reported that it cannot assess the life-cycle costs of the program, its impact on other NNSA activities, and if the bomb meets military requirements. Douglas P. Guarino has the story for Global Security Newswire. http://owl.li/aBy1l

Nuke budget numbers - The Senate markup of the FY13 Energy and Water Appropriations bill provides $11.5 billion for NNSA, $511 million above last year’s appropriated level.

--Like the House, the Senate increased funding for nonproliferation programs (GTRI and INMCP) over the requested level and funded weapons activities at the requested level of $7.6 billion. Kingston Reif at Nukes of Hazard has the details. http://owl.li/aBy6o

House bill on nuclear dealings - The House Foreign Affairs Committee reported out a bill to require tighter controls and greater congressional oversight of U.S. civilian nuclear trade agreements.

--Under the bill (H.R. 1280), trade deals with partners who forgo uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing - the “gold standard” - would automatically go into effect after 90 days. Without those controls, the trade deal would be subjected to an up-or-down vote in Congress. Elaine Grossman has the story for Global Security Newswire. http://owl.li/aByb8