The State of Iran Policy

On the radar: Nuclear cliff notes for SOTU; After sanctions; Israel’s decisions on Iran; N. Korea policy still cautious; Downwinder perspective; Kroenig gives 5 reasons; Amb. Laingen and Limbert urge pragmatism and statecraft; Aussie sanctions; and Rasmussen on Iran.

January 25, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

SOTU - “And we will safeguard America’s own security against those who threaten our citizens, our friends, and our interests. Look at Iran. Through the power of our diplomacy, a world that was once divided about how to deal with Iran’s nuclear program now stands as one. The regime is more isolated than ever before; its leaders are faced with crippling sanctions, and as long as they shirk their responsibilities, this pressure will not relent,” said President Obama in last night’s State of the Union.

--”Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal. But a peaceful resolution of this issue is still possible, and far better, and if Iran changes course and meets its obligations, it can rejoin the community of nations.” http://owl.li/8FYFY

Will Israel attack? - "Does Israel have the ability to cause severe damage to Iran's nuclear sites and bring about a major delay in the Iranian nuclear project?...Have all other possibilities for the containment of Iran's nuclear threat been exhausted, bringing Israel to the point of last resort? If so, is this the last opportunity for an attack? For the first time since the Iranian nuclear threat emerged in the mid-1990s, at least some of Israel's most powerful leaders believe that the response to all of these questions is yes," Ronen Bergman writes in The New York Times. http://owl.li/8FYLr

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Sanction. Then what? - The latest sanctions on Iran’s financial system and oil and gas industry are severe, but it is unclear if they will compel the Iranian regime to not develop nuclear weapons. “That leaves open this critical question: And then what?” asks Helene Cooper at The New York Times.

--”American and European officials say that if Iran is still more than a year away from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability, as many experts believe, the sanctions are their only real option, not because they necessarily believe that they will work, but because the other alternatives — a military strike, or doing nothing as Iran acquires a weapon — are unacceptable.” http://owl.li/8FYIf

U.S. cautious on N. Korea approach - “U.S. officials are not ready to resume aid despite a leadership change in North Korea, which is set to receive aid from China and South Korea.” http://owl.li/8FZ3w

Downwinders - The 1990 Radiation Exposure Compensation Act for victims of nuclear weapons testing drew an arbitrary boundary around the southern Utah counties. Downwinders across the border were out of luck until recently, when a group of Senators introduced legislation to expand the boundary. A personal take from a downwinder in The Salt Lake Tribune. http://owl.li/8FYYk

5 reasons to strike - Condensing his Foreign Affairs article, Matthew Kroenig in CSM gives 5 reasons to strike Iran. His argument: the threat is grave, deterrence is hard, strikes would bring setbacks, consequences are manageable, and policy alternatives are unappealing. http://owl.li/8FYQV

5 reasons to avoid war - “Despite setbacks, the US should not give up on the effort to end over three decades of futility with Iran. Otherwise Americans risk stumbling into another armed conflict with unpredictable and disastrous consequences. Americans should keep their heads on their shoulders and apply the classic tools of statecraft: patience, firmness, persistence, open-mindedness, and a readiness to listen,” write Ambassadors Bruce Laingen and John Limbert in CSM. http://owl.li/8FYU0

Australia chimes in - “Australia will follow the European Union's lead in imposing sanctions on Iran's oil imports, Foreign Secretary Kevin Rudd said Tuesday in London.” From CNN. http://owl.li/8FYOr

Quote - “NATO has no intention to interfere with Iran. I think the best way forward is to find political and diplomatic solutions. And I continue to strongly support international efforts are made to ensure that all possible pressure against the Iranian regime,” said NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen to La Repubblica. http://owl.li/8FZ1k