On the radar: Rasmussen on cooperation; Politics and BMD; Perspective on BMD utility; Indonesia ratifies; ACA on keeping Iran from the bomb; AEI on after Iran gets the bomb; the Ballpark on nuclear budget estimates; ICBM maintenance error; and Deterrence under sequestration.

December 6, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Cooperation and transparency on missile defense - “Our threat perceptions may currently differ, but Russia could also be threatened by ballistic missiles. So it makes sense for us to cooperate in defending against them, by building two separate systems with the same goal,” writes NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen in The New York Times.

--While Russia continues to seek legal guarantees from the US, discussions and transparency measures have continued.” Allies and NATO as a whole have made three practical proposals to allay Russian concerns. First, we offered transparency on missile defense programs through exchanges at the NATO-Russia Council, which is our forum for political dialogue, and we issued a standing invitation to Russian experts to observe and analyze missile defense tests. Second, we proposed holding joint NATO-Russia theater missile defense exercises next year. And third, we suggested establishing two joint missile defense centers, one for sharing data and the other for supporting planning,” writes Secretary General Rasmussen. http://owl.li/7Qk9G

BMD politics - “In recent speeches, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Moscow might have to take countermeasures if the U.S. proceeds with missile defense deployments in Europe...For years now U.S. leaders have been telling the Russians the missile defense plan in Europe is not against them, but Medvedev has not been convinced,” reports Mike Shuster for All Things Considered.

--”Some of [Medvedev’s comments], granted, are for political consumption during an election period. But part of it represents the real anxieties of the Russian military," said Joe Cirincione. http://owl.li/7QmcW

The heartburn and utility for BMD - “The value of [theater missile defense] deployments in countering proliferation threats has to be weighed against the heartburn it causes Moscow and Beijing. Architecture and deployment levels will clarify purpose, since theater missile defenses are worth pursuing to counter threats from outlier states, not major powers,” writes Michael Krepon at Arms Control Wonk.

--”It’s worth remembering that US BMD deployments have always lagged far behind projections...Until TMD effectiveness is demonstrated in rigorous flight tests, these deployments will have more political than military utility. BMD testing that improves intercept capabilities against less advanced missiles can, in turn, reinforce the political utility of TMD deployments against outliers.” http://owl.li/7QlAr

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36 down, 8 to go - Indonesia ratified the CTBT. 8 more of the 44 “annex 2” states, including US, need to ratify before the treaty enters into force. http://owl.li/7QlDU

”Preventing a Nuclear-Armed Iran” - “Washington must rebalance its approach by renewing discussions on a step-by-step process that leads to more-intrusive International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections and the confidence-building steps that are essential to preventing a nuclear-armed Iran,” writes Daryl Kimball in Arms Control Today.

--“If Iran is unwilling to agree to commonsense confidence building steps, Tehran will remain isolated. But the United States cannot afford to wait for Iran to make the first move. Washington must keep testing Iran’s willingness to change course by taking the diplomatic offensive,” Kimball concludes. Read the full article for near-term goals for engaging Iran. http://owl.li/7Qlt5

Assuming Iran gets the bomb - What happens if Iran gets the bomb? AEI experts Tom Donnelly, Maseh Zarif, and Fred Kagan address the question in a new report. “Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran is on the march to nuclear weapons,” Sen. Mark Kirk will say at the report launch today. “And if this brutal, terrorist-sponsoring regime achieves its goal -- if Iran gets the bomb -- we, the United States of America and freedom-loving nations around the world, will have failed in what could be our generation's greatest test." The Cable’s Josh Rogin reports. http://owl.li/7QlgF

Calmer voices on Iran’s nuclear prospects - Other experts object to AEI’s assumption that a nuclear Iran would be a catastrophe. Brookings’ Bruce Reidel argues that “Iran is not an existential threat to either America or Israel,” while RAND’s James Dobbins notes, ”It is not inevitable that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons or even that it will gain the capacity to quickly produce them.” http://owl.li/7Ql7j

Nuclear budget projections - “The annual Ploughshares number of $40 billion a year is definitely higher than other estimates, but the CBO estimate of $30 billion in today’s money for our current force sits comfortably between the Administration at $20 billion and Ploughshares at $40 billion. Are we really spending new money or are there a couple of Nunn-McCurdy breaches on procurement efforts? It’s a very interesting question whether we might get to $40 billion a year. I think it’s in the ballpark, to be honest,” writes Jeff Lewis at Arms Control Wonk.

--”This entire debate, from a policy perspective, is ultimately irrelevant: the coming cuts will occur to specific program elements not the general interest ballpark estimate. The $200 billion estimate isn’t all the spending on nuclear weapons, and certainly not their cost, but it is where the budget-cutters will turn first.” http://owl.li/7QkeC

--Editor’s note: See also Bruce Blair’s take on nuclear budgets at “Battleland”. http://owl.li/7QkuN

Words you don’t want to hear at ICBM silo: “Whoops” - “An Air Force crew damaged a component of an unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile while performing maintenance near a North Dakota base last month,” reports The Washington Post.

--”Lt. Col. Ron Watrous, a spokesman for the Air Force’s Global Strike Command, said technicians were conducting ‘routine maintenance’ on a section of a Minuteman III missile when a ‘small replaceable component’ was damaged.” http://owl.li/7Qkoq

A sequestered nuclear arsenal - A few weeks back, Jeff Lewis estimated what the US nuclear force could look like under Sec. Panetta’s “doomsday” projections under budget sequestration. His answer: 2,672 strategic warheads on bombers and subs.

--In a new infographic, Ploughshares’ Peter Fedewa shows what that sequestered nuclear arsenal looks like. He writes, ”It is striking that the U.S. could save an estimated $118 billion in the strategic weapons budget and still potentially field a nuclear force slightly over ten times the size of China's...It does force one to ask, 'Why not scale back outdated weapons for some much needed economic security?’” View the graphic here. http://owl.li/7QlaS