Sub Delayed, Bomber Unscathed

On the radar: 2 year sub delay, bomber unscathed; Guidance, then budget; Smarter savings on the sub; Levin says nukes are “totally useless”; CJCS Dempsey says force premature; PGS resurfaces; Lessons from attacking Iran; Ban calls for peaceful resolution; B61 reporting; and the Senate’s HEU loophole.

January 27, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Defense budget preview - The new Ohio-class submarine has been delayed by two years, according to the 2013 budget documents released yesterday. However, Pentagon officials emphasized that “this budget protects all three legs of the triad...we are committed to the procurement of a new bomber.” Read the Pentagon’s budget priorities report here. (pdf) http://owl.li/8ICNs

Waiting on the guidance - Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said yesterday, “There are no cuts made in the nuclear force in this budget.” The size and shape of the future force will be determined by the administration’s new nuclear guidance. “So when those decisions come, we'll factor them into our budget,” said Carter. http://owl.li/8IC1y

Smarter sub savings - “The delay in the new strategic submarine program is a step in the right direction, but falls short of the more significant savings that can be achieved by rightsizing U.S. nuclear forces to reflect the realities of the new century,” writes Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association.

--”For more significant savings, the Pentagon must reduce the total number of new subs it plans to buy in the coming years. By reducing the Trident nuclear-armed sub fleet from 14 to eight or fewer boats and building no more than eight new nuclear-armed subs, the United States could save roughly $27 billion over 10 years, and $120 billion over the 50-year lifespan of the program.” http://owl.li/8IBZm

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Levin: nukes are “totally useless” - "The Cold War is over. I just think there's a way over-reliance and cost that goes into our nuclear weapon system,” Sen. Carl Levin, chair of the Armed Services Committee, said at a CS Monitor media event.

--"I've always believed that nuclear weapons are way overdone, we have way more than are needed to carry out their mission. Their mission can't be to use them. They can only be to deter, or to achieve some form of deterrence," Levin added.

Dempsey - “A conflict with Iran would be really destabilizing, and I'm not just talking from the security perspective...It would be economically destabilizing," said JCS Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey. The chairman called it “premature” to resort to military force. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://owl.li/8IBLT

Prompt Global Strike makes the cut - The Navy will finance development work on an "undersea conventional prompt global strike option" said Defense Secretary Leon Panetta yesterday. It is unclear if such capability would be carried by the Ohio-class or the Virginia-class subs.

--Sub-based PGS plans were scuttled several years back after receiving strong opposition on the Hill - where law-makers were concerned that a conventional ballistic missile launch could be misinterpreted as a nuclear strike by Russia or China. The revival of the sub-based PGS concept is a “political development” said a knowledgeable source to AOL Defense, citing new dynamics with Russia. http://owl.li/8IBVv

How Iran responds to threats/attacks - “The policy of attacking and threatening Iran has served as the lifeblood sustaining the Islamic republic. We have yet to see how the regime might sustain itself without it,” writes Annie Tracy Samuel in a Belfer Center policy brief “Attacking Iran: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War.” (pdf) http://owl.li/8IBXw

Ban Ki-moon - “There is no other alternative to addressing this crisis than peaceful resolution through dialogue," said Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon about the situation with Iran. "Iran should comply with the relevant Security Council resolutions. They have to prove themselves, that their nuclear development programme is genuinely for peaceful purposes which they have not done yet."

--The Telegraph has the story, including a preview of the upcoming visit to Iran by a high-level IAEA team. http://owl.li/8IBT0

B61 reporting requirements - Congress recently placed stringent reporting requirements on NNSA’s plan to overhaul the B61 nuclear bomb - the agency’s most ambitious $3.9 billion project. These reporting requirements will increase the programs transparency, get independent technical estimates of the program, and provide more accurate cost estimates. Moreover, it will place “insurmountable hurdles” for going through with the multi-billion dollar project as planned, notes analyst Nick Roth.

--Given the budget environment, results from the studies and reports make it likely that Congress will scale back the scope and funding of the program. Read the full analysis at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. http://owl.li/8IBNL

Tweet - @rjsmithcpi: “Loophole in Senate bill may create nuclear risks. via @iWatch. http://owl.li/8ICi1