Taking Advantage of Iran’s Overtures

On the radar: Iran’s crisis, an opportunity for diplomacy; The better of two bad options; Vandenberg tests; North Korea’s rocket tests; Warhead plans; Big, fat and immortal; That time we almost nuked North Carolina; and Atomic agriculture.

September 23, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Why talk? - In recent weeks, President Rouhani and his cabinet have made significant overtures to the US, softening relations between the two states. What’s behind Tehran’s change in tone? “Rouhani realizes that only a reduction of tensions over the nuclear program can save Iran’s theocracy,” writes Alireza Nader in an explanation of how Iran’s weakened economic and strategic position has encouraged Iran’s recent diplomatic overtures.

--”Washington has been presented with a unique opportunity to negotiate limits on Iran’s nuclear program…Obama said this week that he would test’ Rouhani’s sincerity. But he should do more than test — he should respond ‘heroically’ to Iran’s diplomatic overtures, and show some flexibility of his own. But the president first needs to be clear on what he seeks from Iran...What level of Iranian cooperation is enough to begin rolling back the sanctions?” Full article in Politico. http://ow.ly/p7Xhk

The containment option - “Diplomacy has not yet run its course with Iran. Let’s hope that it triumphs. If it does not, we will have a terrible choice to make...using force to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear arsenal or containing a nuclear Iran until its regime collapses from its own dysfunction,” writes Kenneth Pollack.

--”Sizing up the two alternatives, I favor containment over military operations...I fear that if we started using force in the belief that we could keep it limited, we would either fail and find ourselves facing an enraged, nuclear Iran, or be dragged into another large-scale, protracted war in the Middle East. Containment is hardly a perfect policy, but I see the costs and risks as more easily mitigated than those of war,” writes Pollack in a cautious, nuanced assessment of the United States’ options if diplomacy with Iran fails. http://nyti.ms/1gSRqJ5

--Buy the new book: “Unthinkable: Iran, the Bomb, and American Strategy” by Kenneth Pollack. http://amzn.to/16lYmzb

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Perspectives:

--“President Obama would be crazy not to seize the opportunity that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has given him,” writes Fred Kaplan in Slate. http://slate.me/1aik18S

--“Both opportunity and peril over Iran,” by David Ignatius in The Washington Post. http://ow.ly/p80og

--“As It Makes Overtures to Iran, U.S. Strives to Reassure Israel,” by Mark Landler and Jodi Rudoren in The New York Times. http://ow.ly/p7WYL

Testing, testing - Yesterday an unarmed Minuteman III ICBM was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California during an operational test. The next Minuteman III test out of Vandeberg is scheduled for September 26. http://ow.ly/p7Fsh

Satellites suggest - According to analysis of new satellite imagery, North Korea “more than likely tested a long-range rocket engine late last month.” The presence of a probable rocket stage, propellant tanks and the appearance of burnt vegetation around the launch stand suggests the country conducted a test, reports Jamie Crawford at CNN’s Security Clearance. http://ow.ly/p7IvX

Analysis - “Probable Rocket Engine Test Conducted at Sohae,” by Nick Hansen at 38 North. http://ow.ly/p7J7V

Warhead report - “ICBM Modernization: Approaches to Basing Options and Interoperable Warhead Designs Need Better Planning and Synchronization” from the GAO. September, 2013. (pdf) link

Budget watch - Nuclear, Weapons Programs Could Take Hit in Congressional Budget Battle” by Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1b6XuR0

Tweet - @wellerstein: 64 years ago today: Truman announces detection of first Soviet atomic explosion. Does not call it a "bomb," though. pic.twitter.com/A7vhtUQKm3

Long live the BUFF - First designed to deliver nuclear weapons to Soviet targets during the Cold War, the B-52, continues to retain “its value for bombing missions against adversaries who lack formidable air defenses - as in Iraq, Afghanistan and Serbia,” sixty years after entering into service. The bomber, which has outlived its first pilots and attempted replacements will be "getting modern digital display screens, computer network servers and real-time communication uplinks," writes Steve Chapman in The Chicago Tribune. http://ow.ly/p7PiF

Bombs over Goldsboro - In 1961, a B-52 bomber malfunctioned mid-flight and accidentally released two hydrogen bombs over North Carolina, reveals a recently declassified document. Of the bombs’ four safety mechanisms, one was ineffective in the air, two others were rendered ineffective when the plane broke up, which means “One simple, dynamo-technology, low voltage switch stood between” the Tar Heel State and a nuclear blast 260 times more powerful than Hiroshima. The document was discovered by Eric Schlosser, author of Command and Control. The Washington Post has the story. http://ow.ly/p7BtR

H-bomb hypotheticals - If one of the two nuclear weapons accidentally dropped over Goldsboro, NC had detonated, fallout from the blast could have reached as far as New York City with the right weather conditions. “Philadelphia and Washington would likely have been affected,” reports Connor Simpson in The Atlantic Wire. http://ow.ly/p7Bgy

Events:

--Iranian president Hassan Rouhani meets with President Obama at the UN General Assembly, September 24.

--President Hassan Rouhani addresses the U.N. General Assembly. September 24 between 3:00-8:00 pm. Webcast here. http://webtv.un.org/

--Senate Foreign Relations Committee, hearing on the nominations of Rose Gottemoeller to be Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security; Frank Rose to be Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance; and Adam Scheinman to be Special Representative for Nuclear Nonproliferation. September 26, 10:00 am. Webcast here.

--Iran and the IAEA resume talks on Iran’s nuclear program. September 27.

--”The U.S.-Russia Relationship: Transcending Mutual Deterrence.” Gary Samore, William Tobey, and Pavel Zolotarev. Moderated by Steven Pifer. September 30, 2:00-3:30 pm @ The Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium. Details here. http://ow.ly/oZSM9

Dessert:

Are they growing “Tomacco”? - Can food grow in a nuclear wasteland? Scientists from Kazakhstan’s Institute of Radiation Safety and Ecology are seeking to answer that question with an experimental farm - situated near the former Soviet nuclear test site of Semipalatinsk - designed to measure the transference of radioactivity from contaminated soil into edible crops and animal products.

--”They anticipate that, within the next few years, they will have collected enough data to try and persuade the government to end the ban on agriculture [near the former nuclear test site]. The scientists are so confident in their findings thus far that they have eaten vegetables and meat from the farm,” writes Jillian Keenan. The scientists hope that the research could influence projects in other parts of the world that are recovering from radioactive contamination. Full article in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/14zyKLT

Tweet - @TheAtlantic: The Time a Cleveland Newspaper Divulged the Manhattan Project http://t.co/u8SL3jT1vP