Time For Engagement With North Korea

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Tuesday, October 5, 2010.

North Korea: Don’t Wait for New Ruler – The Boston Globe [link]

• If the United States hopes to reach a denuclearization deal with North Korea, the time to get talks moving is while Kim Jong-il is still alive.
• At a Workers Party congress, Kim Jong-un, who’s believed to be in his late 20s, emerged from the shadows and was named a four-star general and a Central Committee member. The country he will inherit will need the energy aid and foreign investment that it can gain for giving up its nuclear reactor, reprocessing facility, warheads, and missiles.
• If no deal is struck with Kim Jong-il, it could take a callow princeling several years to acquire the authority needed to make peace with America.
• The six-party talks, which also include China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea, have been suspended, but the looming transfer of power gives the Obama administration ample reason to resume negotiations.

Obama Has Lame Duck Wish List for Congress -- But Maybe Not Immigration and Energy – USA Today [link]

• Congress is on recess for the Nov. 2 elections, but the Obama administration has a wish list for lame duck members who return after the balloting.
• It includes a nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia, and the fate of the George W. Bush tax cuts -- but not necessarily the hot button topics of immigration and a "cap-and-trade" energy plan to restrict greenhouse gas emissions.
• "We've got a START treaty that we believe needs to be ratified through the Senate," said White House spokesman Robert Gibbs.

Poll Finds Americans Not Trigger-Happy on Iran – Laura Rozen in Politico [link]

• On Iran, the monthly poll, conducted by CBS's News Election and Survey Unit, asked, "Which one of the following would be most likely to cause you to support a U.S. war with Iran? 1. If Iran tests a nuclear bomb, or 2. If Iran attacks Israel, or 3. If Iran attacks the U.S. fleet in the Persian Gulf, or 4. Only if Iran attacks U.S. soil, or 5. Would you never support a war with Iran?"
• 25% of respondents said "only if Iran attacks U.S. soil;" 25% said "If Iran attacks the U.S. fleet in the Persian Gulf;" 11% said "If Iran tests a nuclear bomb;" and 10% said "If Iran attacks Israel." 24% of respondents said they would never support a war with Iran.
• The poll was conducted at the CBS News interviewing facility among a random sample of 906 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone September 6­–8, 2010, a press statement said.

Woodward Book Has Echoes for Iran Policy – John Vinocur in The New York Times [link]

• Because the French, and many Americans in an election year, are emphasizing that a nuclear-armed Iran is an ultimately greater concern, the book tends to reinforce the questions of some of the allies about the Obama administration’s resolve to stop the mullahs’ drive.
• On one hand, the United States acknowledged estimates this summer that Iran is now in possession of enough low-enriched uranium to produce, with further enrichment, two nuclear weapons, and can manufacture one in about a year.
• On the other, an informed source said that Gary Samore, a special assistant to the president and White House director for nuclear issues, was in Europe telling experts last week that there was time for diplomacy involving Iran — up to 24 months.
• As for the book, it goes to doubts — expressed semi-privately by President Nicolas Sarkozy of France — about the U.S. president’s basic views of the world and America’s concept in 2010 of victory and defeat.
• Readers of Mr. Woodward’s book will also note that it does not prophesy less ambiguity soon about the United States’ level of military determination. If that is the immediate lesson concerning Iran coming out of “Obama’s Wars,” Israel is very unlikely to wait for a less hesitant U.S. policy on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, or shy from a determined response if its own red lines are crossed by the mullahs.

State Department Reshuffles Arms Control Bureaus – Martin Matishak in Global Security Newswire [link]

• The U.S. State Department has revamped its arms control bureau in a bid to improve the Obama administration's efforts against threats posed by conventional forces and weapons of mass destruction.
• The reorganization, approved by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, would see the existing Verification, Compliance and Implementation Bureau become the Arms Control, Verification and Compliance Bureau, according to a department press release issued Friday.
• Rose Gottemoeller would oversee the newly minted bureau, leading Foggy Bottom's work on arms control, verification and compliance, including any associated policy decisions, talks and implementation.
• Meanwhile, the existing International Security and Nonproliferation Bureau, headed by acting Assistant Secretary of State Vann Van Diepen, would remain responsible for all international efforts to halt the proliferation and acquisition of weapons of mass destruction, including their delivery systems, materials and equipment, and technology.

A View From The Dark Side

The Fired Congress – Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) in The National Review [link]

• Before they’re replaced in January, all of the Democrats who are put out of a job in November will be able to come back and rob the nation blind.
• West Virginia’s Republican Senate candidate, John Raese, who is up in the polls, has stated unequivocally that he would oppose the Democrats’ lame-duck agenda. He has said, “It is completely inappropriate for House and Senate Democrats, who would be in cahoots with President Obama, to take up any legislation that would significantly affect the country after an election that will considerably alter the political landscape of Congress. Any attempt to do so would be a slap in the face to all Americans who voted for a change from the liberal status quo.”
• It’s been reported that Democrats are considering as many as 20 pieces of legislation to bring up for a vote. After failing to get the New START Treaty (an agreement that hurts America’s missile-defense systems) ratified, to repeal “don’t ask, don’t tell,” and to pass legislation to give amnesty to illegal aliens, Democrats see opportunity after the elections, when a number of their members won’t have anything to lose.
• When the Democrats come back in December to box up their personal belongings, Republicans must make sure that’s all they take with them.