What Do We Actually Know About Japan's Nuclear Crisis?

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today - Monday, March 21, 2011:

Meltdowns and Misinformation - Joe Cirincione in Foreign Policy [link]

• To state the obvious, the nuclear crisis in Japan is bad and will get worse. Despite the heroic efforts of the remaining workers at the nuclear complex, it seems likely that two reactor cores will melt down and two spent fuel ponds will ignite, spewing radioactivity into the ground, air, and water.
• But beyond concern for the workers and those in the surrounding region, the international public has reacted to the unfolding disaster with understandable -- but nonetheless irrational -- fear for their own safety.
• In an effort, perhaps, to keep the public calm, the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) which owns the reactors, and the Japanese government which regulates them have limited the information released and constantly portrayed the situation as under control. The facts have spoken otherwise.
• The only antidote to this panic is accurate, complete information. We have gotten neither from TEPCO. The Japanese government must distance itself from the now discredited power company and speak directly and regularly to the Japanese public.
• If the U.S. nuclear industry has any chance of surviving the Fukushima disaster, there must be frank talk about safety and risks. Bland statements about how safe U.S. reactors are will simply trigger the same mistrust in Americans that false assurances did among the Japanese. There will need to be a thorough, independent reassessment of the safety of all U.S. reactors, existing and planned, if the American public is to be convinced to keep them in their backyards.
• At moments as serious as the nuclear crisis in Japan, we all -- experts, journalists, officials, and corporate executives -- have a duty to fully inform the public. And to trust them with the simple truth.

[MJ Note: For the best up-to-the-minute analysis, follow Joe Cirincione, The Union of Concerned Scientists, or David Hoffman on Twitter.]

New Repairs Delay Work at Crippled Nuclear Plant - Ken Belson, Hiroko Tabuchi and Norimitsu Onishi in The New York Times [link]

• Efforts to stabilize the hobbled nuclear power plant in Fukushima hit a snag on Monday when engineers found that crucial machinery at one reactor requires repair, a process that will take two to three days, government officials said.
• Hundreds of employees from Tokyo Electric Power Company, which owns the disabled Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, worked through the weekend to connect a mile-long high-voltage transmission line to Reactor No. 2 in hopes to restarting a cooling system that would help bring down the temperature in the facility’s reactor and spent fuel pool.
• After connecting the transmission line on Sunday, engineers found on Monday that they still did not have enough power to fully run the systems that control the temperature and pressure in the building that houses the reactor, officials from the nuclear safety agency said.
• The nuclear safety agency also said that some of the water used to douse the damaged reactors had reached the ocean nearby, and that officials were investigating radiation levels in the water.
• The World Bank, meanwhile, citing private and Japanese government estimates, said the cost of the disaster could range from $122 billion to $235 billion, or 2.5 to 4 percent of gross domestic product and that it would hurt Japan’s growth through 2011.

Nuclear Specialists Share Japan Radioactivity Data - AFP [link]

• A UN agency that monitors for clandestine nuclear tests said Friday it was sharing its data about radioactivity levels in Japan with the world body's atomic watchdog and health organisation.
• The Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) data would enable experts to calculate the course of the plume of radiation over the Pacific to the United States and other countries.
• The CTBTO uses a global network of hydroacoustic and seismic stations to detect nuclear bomb explosions and its data is also used in tsunami warning systems.
• It is currently building a global verification system to detect nuclear explosions in an effort to verify a comprehensive ban on nuclear testing.
• When complete, its 337-facility network of seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound stations will watch underground, the oceans and the atmosphere, and its radionuclide stations will sniff the air for tell-tale signs of a nuclear explosion.
• Nearly 270 monitoring stations, of which 63 are radionuclide sensors, are already operational and send data to the International Data Centre in Vienna for processing and analysis.

Gates Hopes to Expand US-Russian Cooperation - The Associated Press 

• U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates arrived in Russia Monday to take a final personal shot at easing Moscow's worries over a missile defense shield in Europe and to expand a military relationship that has grown dramatically since his Cold War days at the helm of the CIA.
• Gates, who is expected to retire this summer, told reporters traveling with him that Russian cooperation in the Afghanistan war, and support of U.N. Security Council resolutions against North Korea and Iran, underscore cooperation that has dramatically evolved in recent years. Russia also abstained in the recent United Nations vote for military intervention in Libya, effectively allowing the allied assault to go forward.
• His latest visit comes as the U.S. and Russia continue to joust over details and coordination of the European missile shield which is aimed at countering future Iranian threats. Russia has raised strong objections to the plan, which is already underway, and begins with ship-based, anti-missile interceptors and radars. It would add land-based radars in Southern Europe later this year.
• Reflecting on the changes in U.S-Russia relations over his career, Gates suggested they have moved from what was once a fierce rivalry to a bureaucratic brotherhood. Now, he said, the U.S. and Russia have a common enemy — the battle to modernize their militaries amid rising costs for weapons and elusive contract deadlines that are never met.
• Acknowledging that Russia still has uncertainties about the defense shield, Gates told the young officers that both are committed to resolving the differences, and eventually collaborate, including on launch information, a data fusion center and conducting joint analysis.

After Japan’s Disaster, Will Nuclear Energy Have a Future in America? - The Washington Post 

• The nuclear renaissance in the United States was in trouble long before Japan’s earthquake and tsunami. Spiraling construction cost estimates, declining energy demand, low costs of natural gas and the government’s failure to place a price on carbon already threatened the industry’s future.
• It is impossible to fully plan for natural disasters, but we can at least put in place all practical mechanisms to protect our citizens and environment from known hazards. Utilities and first responders are not yet prepared to respond to a combination of disruptive events, natural or man-made, that could damage critical infrastructure and precipitate a nuclear accident.
• Adding more safety features to nuclear reactors will make nuclear power more expensive, as will improving our emergency preparedness, compared with other, less risky low-carbon energy alternatives. The American people will need to decide how much safety they want to pay for.