Examining North Korea's launch vehicle

David Wright of the Ploughshares-funded Union of Concerned Scientists provides expert insight into the launch vehicle for North Korea’s upcoming missile launch, though "no one in the West" knows for sure.  Wright commented that a successful launch “wouldn't necessarily demonstrate the ability to launch a heavy payload over a long distance.”  North Korea plans to use the Unha-2 launcher, believed to be derived from the Taepodong-2 missile that has never been successfully launched.  Although the trajectory will not take the launcher toward the continental United States, it will pass over the northern tip of the main Japanese island of Honshu and in the general direction of Hawaii.
 
There is strong evidence that Pyongyang's missile development program depended heavily on technology and assistance from Russian missile experts, Wright added, although possibly without the involvement of the Russian government. If North Korea's indigenous missile capabilities still are limited, then efforts to work with other countries to restrict further foreign assistance would be important and could help slow future progress.