Morning Joe: The Medium-term with Iran

Stories we're following today:

Can the U.S. Deal with a Divided Iran? - Joe Klein in Time [link]

• The prevailing view was that the Iranians would withdraw for a time and attempt to get their house in order. But it is also possible that the regime will move aggressively toward negotiations with the U.S., in order to convey the impression of stability and international legitimacy to its people. If that happens, the Obama Administration may be in position to gain concessions from the Iranians in the area where the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad forces were least willing to negotiate — Iran's nuclear program.

U.S. dismisses latest missile provocation by North Korea - CNN [link]

• The U.S. intelligence community does not believe North Korea intends to launch a long-range missile in the near future, a U.S. intelligence official told CNN, despite reports in Japanese media citing intelligence that the North Korean regime intends to fire a missile toward Hawaii on July 4.

Obama now playing hard to get with Iran? - The Cable [link]

• The apparent cooling of Obama's outreach efforts to Iran represents a tactical shift, not a change in the goal of eventually getting to engagement, Iran analysts said.

A View from the Dark Side

Giving 'Realism' a Bad Name - James Ceaser in the Weekly Standard [link]

• Democrats are clinging stubbornly to their new religion of "realism" and "pragmatism" in foreign affairs.
• Realism as practiced has become an inflexible response to an imaginary idealism. Its costs will soon become obvious, if they are not so already. These include not just an inability to fashion a moral or principled domestic consensus for foreign policy, but also harm to reformist forces around the world that are struggling to establish constitutional government in the face of authoritarian rulers.