Brzezinski on Diplomacy, Strategy with Iran

On the radar: Negotiate, contain, deter; Iran Project report on sanctions; Nuclear waste and the fiscal cliff; Rocket tit-for-tat; Engaging Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey; and nuking the moon.

November 27th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Brzezinski - A preventive attack on Iran would be “an act of utter irresponsibility and potential immorality,” given the likely strategic and humanitarian consequences, said former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski yesterday. Brzezinski recommended that the US seek a diplomatic solution with Iran by using a private bilateral channel in parallel to to the current multilateral talks.

--Brzezinski also suggested that, if necessary, the U.S. can contain and deter Iran through strategies modeled after those used against the Soviet Union, China or North Korea. Barbara Slavin at Al Monitor has the story. http://bit.ly/UpJDL4

--Watch Brzezinski’s full remarks at the event sponsored by the Arms Control Association and the National Iranian American Council. Via C-SPAN. http://cs.pn/Traq9U

Tweet - CarnegieNPP: Registration for the 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference is now open! ow.ly/famCp

Report launch - “Weighing Benefits and Costs of International Sanctions on Iran,” a new report from the Iran Project. December 6th from 8:30-10:00. Speakers include George Perkovich, Gregory Newbold, and William A. Reinsch. Amb. Thomas Pickering will moderate. Details and RSVP here. http://bit.ly/Y0cWro

Sanctions timing - Two senators are planning to propose a new round of sanctions on Iran. “With existing multilateral sanctions apparently having the desired effect, and Iran quite possibly on the verge of taking crucial steps toward negotiations, it is precisely the wrong time to impose new sanctions,” writes Usha Sahay at Nukes of Hazard.

--”Iran needs to be confident that the easing of sanctions is a real possibility, in order for any talks to be effective. But if we go through the process of debating, passing, and implementing a new and more draconian round of sanctions, Iran is likely to receive the opposite message.” http://bit.ly/QlTXmK

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Fiscal cliff - “We have too many programs on the books that drain taxpayer dollars instead of reinforce national security,” writes Michael Ostrolenk in a call for a more strategic and comprehensive budget that avoids sequestration.

--On defense spending: “Addressing waste in the Pentagon budget, for example, is something both sides should be able to agree on...Nuclear weapons, for example, do little to address 21st-century threats and will cost $640 billion over the next decade, yet we still have elected officials trying to ensure that wasteful nuclear weapons programs are exempted from budget cuts next year. Just as we should direct a critical eye at entitlement programs, we should keep our eye on the Pentagon budget as a place where we can be both more cost effective and more strategic.” http://bit.ly/TrYN1o

Korea’s upcoming launches - On Thursday, South Korea is set to make a third attempt at putting a satellite into orbit. This amidst rumors of a North Korean missile test, and a recent U.S. decision allowing South Korea to expand its ballistic missile ranges to 800 km. David Wright explains the “Rocket Tit-for-Tat” at All Things Nuclear. http://bit.ly/10P10r1

Statement - “Secretary-General's message to event commemorating Tenth Anniversary of Hague Code of Conduct to Prevent the Proliferation of Ballistic Missiles” http://bit.ly/WW8Yib

Report - “Global Swing States and the Non-Proliferation Order,” by Megan Garcia for the CNAS Global Swing States Project.

--“There is currently a disconnect between the proliferation concerns of many Western countries and the more immediate concerns of [Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey]. Western countries have traditionally defined the terms of the nonproliferation and disarmament debate and driven the accompanying agenda. To move beyond this pattern, the model of engagement will have to shift,” writes Garcia. http://bit.ly/SaQPIX

Quote - “Today, the Pentagon budget is adversely impacted by spending commitments that date to the Cold War. For example, our government is slated to spend more than $600 billion on nuclear weapons stockpiled for a communist threat that ended long ago. This is spending that doesn’t address the 21st century threats that have shifted the needs of our military,” writes Paul Worley on cutting wasteful programs to avoid sequestration. Op-ed in the Cincinnati Enquirer. http://cin.ci/U9yIme

Modernization - “Nuclear modernization: What does it mean and what is required for U.S. security?” Discussion with Hans Kristensen and Linton Brooks at the third BASIC Strategic Dialogue. Audio from the recent event available here: http://bit.ly/SaILHU

Shooting the moon - In a bid to terrify the Soviets and rally American citizens, the U.S. in the 1950s proposed exploding a nuclear weapon on the surface of the moon.

--”The plan to nuke the moon was ultimately scrapped for a number of reasons, the main ones being that the scientists were unsure what effects the bomb’s blast would have on the Earth (probably a fairly important thing to keep in mind) and that while they agreed it would have the desired effect on the Soviets (terror), it would not have the same hopeful effect on the West (the reaction would probably also be terror).” The National Post has the story. http://natpo.st/Rg9C8C

Tweet - ArmsControlWonk: @ctbto_alerts Nuclear testing on the moon is already banned by the 1963 LTBT http://www.state.gov/t/isn/4797.htm and 1967 OST http://bit.ly/TiRqqv