Budget Crunch Could Rationalize Nuclear Weapons Policy

October 22, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Logic and budgets - Congressional budget disfunction, continuing resolutions and sequestration are undercutting U.S. plans to upgrade the entire nuclear arsenal. Will this budget environment “yield rational changes to the U.S. nuclear weapons program?” asks Walter Pincus of The Washington Post.

--Pincus looks into the historic commitments made to upgrade the U.S. nuclear arsenal and the budget cuts that could pair them back. He asks just how many nuclear weapons the U.S. needs and notes it is “almost funny” that the cost of nuclear weapons rather than their logic may “ultimately may force a change in nuclear weapons policy.” Full article here. http://wapo.st/1gBDloD

Sub costs - The Navy’s plan to buy 12 new ballistic missile submarines is expected to cost $97 billion to $102 billion, according to a new Congressional Budget Office analysis of the Navy’s 30-year shipbuilding plan. CBO estimates that the cost of the current shipbuilding plan would require annual budgets of 30% above the historical average, with the new ballistic missile subs consuming a large portion of shipbuilding funds.

--Full report: “An Analysis of the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2014 Shipbuilding Plan” by the Congressional Budget Office. October, 2013. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1aDYJku

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Tabled proposal - Diplomats praised the tone and seriousness of negotiations with Iran in Geneva last week, though details of negotiating proposals remain confidential. AP has an early report of the list of demands from the P5+1 on Iran’s nuclear program.

--Included demands: Iran stops 20% enrichment, shutters Fordo, limits its uranium production and stockpile, and blends down its existing 20% uranium. Full report here. http://abcn.ws/1gBjrdh

Outlook - "If we see the same seriousness in future negotiations which we saw in the (October 15-16) Geneva negotiations, we believe that within six months to one year we can conclude the negotiations...Perhaps within three months or six months we can reach a conclusion regarding the first step," said Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. http://reut.rs/177ZWD1

Report - “Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress” by Ronald O’Rourke of CRS. October 17, 2013. http://bit.ly/1a4G4TI

Tweet - @chicoharlan: Curtis Melvin uses satellite imagery to find the lair of luxury where Kim Jong Un and @dennisrodman had drinks. http://bit.ly/1cbBdSx

Reactor restart - North Korea recently restarted its 5-megawatt reactor, which will increase North Korea’s plutonium production capabilities and strengthen its negotiating position should the six-party talks resume. Sig Hecker estimates that, under the most likely scenario, “we can expect Pyongyang to gain one bomb’s worth of plutonium per year [from the restarted reactor]...Such a production rate does not constitute a game changer, but it would give North Korea more plutonium to test in order to refine its nuclear devices to fit on its missiles.” Full analysis of North Korea’s fissile materials production in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1a3qJ2a

Waiving sanctions - Most sanctions on Iran contain a “national security waiver” that would allow the president to temporarily soften or lift sanctions. In theory, that allows the president to soften or lift sanctions if Iran were to cooperate in nuclear negotiations. In practice, it would require the administration to justify its actions before a congress that is reluctant to lift sanctions and eager to pick political fights. Yochi Dreazen in Foreign Policy has the story. http://atfp.co/H046CV

Speed read:

--“Nuclear talks secrecy allows Iran's hardliners to argue US has upper hand” by Scott Peterson of The Christian Science Monitor. http://bit.ly/1bb7gNk

--”Missile defense in Ravenna? Not if the system fails to work” by Philip Taylor and Laura Grego in The Akron Beacon Journal. http://bit.ly/17GBpSe

Longform - “Israel, Nuclear Weapons and the 1973 Yom Kippur War.” Longform article from Avner Cohen in Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/17Gv8Wx

Tweet - @wellerstein: Bottle opener keychains made from recycled nuclear missile systems – "Beers not Bombs" http://bit.ly/1deAiQE

Events:

--Amb. Richard Burt and Clark Murdock debate the goal of global zero. Oct. 22nd from 6:00-8:00pm at CSIS. http://bit.ly/174Vh78

--”Russian-U.S. Bilateral Relations – the View from Moscow” Discussion with Amb. Sergey Kislyak and Steven Pifer. Tuesday Oct. 22 from 5:00-6:00pm at the Russian Embassy. Details and RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1c9srEv

--”An Independent Assessment of the Navy’s 30 year Shipbuilding Plan” Hearing of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection with Eric Labs and Ron O’Rourke. Oct. 23rd at 2:00-4:00pm. Webcast here. http://1.usa.gov/1aREr8c