The Iran Deal: What it Says, What it Means and the Road Ahead

November 25, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke, Lauren Mladenka and Geoff WIlson

Special edition: Iran and the members of the P5+1 signed an interim agreement in Geneva over the weekend that would freeze Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for limited sanctions relief. It’s a historic occasion, and there’s a lot of news. So Early Warning presents a special Iran edition today.

If you only read one summary - “Anatomy of Iranian Nuclear Deal” by Matthew Lee and Brian Murphy of AP. http://abcn.ws/1b0oB9I

The deal - “Joint Plan of Action” agreed to by Iran and the members of the P5+1. Geneva, November 24, 2013. Full text (pdf). http://bit.ly/1i8CA79

The facts - Key elements of the deal: Iran commits to halt enrichment above 5%, dilute or convert its stocks of 20% uranium, not install or operate more centrifuges, halt growth of its 3.5% uranium stockpile, suspend work on its Arak reactor and accept unprecedented IAEA monitoring of its facilities.

--The P5+1 commits to “Not impose new nuclear-related sanctions for six months, if Iran abides by its commitments under this deal, to the extent permissible within their political systems.” In addition, the P5+1 will suspend some sanctions worth about $7 billion in relief, while facilitating humanitarian transactions and licensing safety repairs and inspections for certain Iranian airlines.

--”During the six-month initial phase, the P5+1 will negotiate the contours of a comprehensive solution. Thus far, the outline of the general parameters of the comprehensive solution envisions concrete steps to give the international community confidence that Iran’s nuclear activities will be exclusively peaceful.” White House fact sheet here. http://1.usa.gov/1ek4eZc

POTUS - “Ultimately, only diplomacy can bring about a durable solution to the challenge posed by Iran’s nuclear program. As President and Commander-in-Chief, I will do what is necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. But I have a profound responsibility to try to resolve our differences peacefully, rather than rush towards conflict. Today, we have a real opportunity to achieve a comprehensive, peaceful settlement, and I believe we must test it,” said President Obama in his announcement of the deal on Saturday night. Full statement here. http://1.usa.gov/1b0gnOQ

Kerry - “We are taking [a first step] with an agreement that impedes the progress in a very dramatic way of Iran’s principal enrichment facilities and parts of its program, and ensures they cannot advance in a way that will threaten our friends in the region, threaten other countries, threaten the world… I know that there are those who will assert that this deal is imperfect. Well, they too bear a responsibility, and that is to tell people what the better alternative is,” said Secretary of State John Kerry from Geneva. Full statement here. http://1.usa.gov/1bfDKKg

Behind the scenes - “Deputy Secretary of State William Burns has led a secret U.S. back channel to Iran going back to before the June election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani,” reports Laura Rozen of Al Monitor. http://bit.ly/1cLjMUn

Quick take - ”All in all, the interim agreement is a good deal. The parties have given themselves a six-month window to see if there is some way to impose a verifiable gap between Iran's extant nuclear weapons option and any decision to exercise that option, while easing Iran's isolation and avoiding another war in the Middle East. I can't say I am ever optimistic about negotiations, but this is probably our collected last, best chance. Not bad for government work,” writes Jeffrey Lewis.

--“The restrictions on the Iranian program are, frankly, more than could have been hoped for...If we can't ease sanctions in exchange for these sorts of concessions, one really must ask what the point of pressuring Iran is.” Full post at Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1clfJOH

Effect of the deal - “The Geneva agreement is a good deal because Iran’s capabilities in every part of the nuclear programme of concern are capped, with strong verification measures,” writes Mark Fitzpatrick. “The net effect of the limits Iran has accepted is to double the time it would take for it to make a dash to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons. Without a deal, the break-out time might instead soon be halved.” Full post at IISS. http://bit.ly/1b0qPWC

In perspective - “The deal to limit and begin to roll back Iran’s nuclear program may be the most important foreign policy success of [President Obama’s] tenure,” writes Joe Cirincione. “It starts with a single step, and it is an important one. The first phase of the agreement just reached in Geneva makes it much more difficult for Iran to dash for a bomb. It also begins to lock down the nuclear program that has plagued United States officials for over ten years.”

--The interim deal has been welcomed by most serious security officials, with opposition limited to Israel, some Gulf states, and a minority of U.S. politicians and experts. This widespread consensus reflects the broader potential of the deal, which could lead to a U.S. rapprochement with Iran and removal of the largest perceived nuclear proliferation threat, writes Cirincione. Read the full article in Defense One. http://bit.ly/1cLktwV

Good first step - “I think the deal is better understood as a useful, even important confidence-building measure. Neither side trusts the other, but both sides needed to see some tangible manifestation ahead of time, that the other would be willing to do what would be required in a final deal,” writes Kenneth Pollack of Brookings. http://bit.ly/1jBzdAZ

Sanctions pushers - “Lawmakers from both parties said Sunday they are skeptical that Iran will stick to a new nuclear deal and want Congress to prepare beefed-up economic penalties to hit Tehran if the accord falls apart,” reports the AP. “Such distrust that Iran was negotiating in good faith ran across political parties that are otherwise deeply divided. And ready-to-go sanctions seemed to have rare bipartisan support across both of Congress' chambers.” Full story here. http://n.pr/17U5bIV

Major editorials:

--”The interim nuclear deal between Iran and the major powers is an important step toward resolving the increasingly dangerous dispute over Iran’s progress on production of a nuclear weapon,” writes The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/19WgtH7

--”Though the accord is freighted with risk, it is worthy as an interim step — and preferable to the military action that might otherwise have been deemed necessary,” writes . http://wapo.st/1cldVp0

--”Iran’s Nuclear Triumph” by The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1eu1R6L

How it played:

--”All Sides Declare Victory in Historic Iran Nuclear Deal” by Scott Peterson of The Christian Science Monitor. http://bit.ly/18jlgbJ

--”John Kerry Says Iran Talks Far From Over Following Nuclear Deal” from Reuters. http://huff.to/IcTQb2

--”Iran, World Powers Reach Historic Nuclear Deal” by Anne Gearan and Joby Warrick of The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/IcUGVa

--“Nuclear Accord With Iran Opens Diplomatic Doors in the Mideast” by Mark Landler of The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/Ibmr0d

Hill reactions:

--”By any standard, this agreement is a giant step forward and should not be undermined by additional sanctions at this time,” said Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA). http://1.usa.gov/19W0qJo

--“The deal announced today is a positive step in the right direction and I applaud the Administration for making progress on this important national security issue. It is vital that we prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon in a peaceful way,” said Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA). http://1.usa.gov/1etQlZ8

--”I support the interim deal with Iran. It is a realistic, practical way to freeze Iran's nuclear program for six months while we seek a long-range diplomatic end to Iran's nuclear weapon ambition,” said Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI). http://1.usa.gov/18jf8jA

--”I expect that the forthcoming sanctions legislation to be considered by the Senate will provide for a six month window to reach a final agreement before imposing new sanctions on Iran, but will at the same time be immediately available should the talks falter or Iran fail to implement or breach the interim agreement,” said Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ). http://wapo.st/Igyvhp

--"I will continue working with my colleagues to craft bipartisan legislation that will impose tough new economic sanctions if Iran undermines this interim accord or if the dismantlement of Iran's nuclear infrastructure is not underway by the end of this six-month period,” said Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL). http://wapo.st/Igyvhp

--”I think it’s now time for Congress to weigh in...I’ve crafted legislation to hold the administration and the international community's feet to the fire over the next six months to ensure that this interim deal is not the norm. But look, I think we all greet it with skepticism,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN). http://1.usa.gov/18BvIcu

--”I have serious concerns that this agreement does not meet the standards necessary to protect the United States and our allies,” said Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA). http://1.usa.gov/1i8PLVK

The alternative? - “This weekend’s result in Geneva should be measured not only against an ideal outcome but also against the alternative of U.S. military conflict with Iran. In that context, this is a deal worth supporting,” writes Robert Blackwill for Politico. http://politi.co/1aMPZML

Tweet - @IranPrimer: #Iran's reaction to Geneva: #Rouhani, #Zarif and #Khamenei welcome nuclear deal as a victory and start of a new era. http://t.co/xIy30uRIic

Formers - “Some have charged that any negotiation is too risky. However, if we deprive ourselves of that option, that leaves only the binary choice of the use of force or acquiescence to an Iranian nuclear weapon. Clearly, giving this diplomatic track a chance is a better way forward,” write Madeleine Albright and 12 other former foreign ministers in support of Iran negotiations. http://bit.ly/1b0d4Hg

Events:

--”Italy, the Cold War, and the Nuclear Dilemma: The Struggle Over the NPT.” Discussion with Leopoldo Nuti and David Nickles at the Wilson Center. Nov. 25 from 4:00pm-5:00pm. Details here. link

--”New Hope for Nuclear Negotiations with Iran, or Further Disappointment?” Discussion with Trita Parsi and John Limbert at World Affairs Council of Washington, DC. Nov. 26 from 6:30pm-8:30pm. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1aT1X6r

Dessert:

Scene of the deal - “Saturday night had turned into Sunday morning and four days of talks over Iran's nuclear programme had already gone so far over schedule that the Geneva Intercontinental Hotel had been given over to another event.”

--”A black tie charity ball was finishing up and singers with an after party band at a bar above the lobby were crooning out the words to a Johnny Cash song - "I fell into a burning ring of fire" - while weary diplomats in nearby conference rooms were trying to polish off the last touches of an accord. Negotiators emerged complaining that the hotel lobby smelled like beer,” write Louis Charbonneau, Parisa Hafezi and Arshad Mohammed of Reuters about the scene in Geneva immediately before the deal with Iran was signed. http://huff.to/IcTQb2