Iran Talks to Resume, Offer of Direct Talks Stands

On the radar: Feb. 25 in Kazakhstan; VP Biden remarks; Welcome, Sec. Kerry; Test prep in North Korea; Loose nuke, 55 years later; Gov. Richardson on North Korea; and Ground control to Maj. Mahmoud.

February 4, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Scheduling talks - Iran’s Foreign Minister announced that Iran will join a new round of nuclear talks with the P5+1, slated for Feb. 25th in Kazakhstan. European Union Officials are still waiting for formal confirmation from Iran’s negotiating team. Report from Laura Rozen at Al Monitor. http://bit.ly/Vzmvr9

Direct talks - Asked if the U.S. would be prepared for direct negotiations with Iran, Vice President Joe Biden said, “When the Iranian leadership, Supreme Leader, is serious. We have made it clear at the outset that...we would be prepared to meet bilaterally with the Iranian leadership.”

--”That offer stands, but it must be real and tangible, and there has to be an agenda that they’re prepared to speak to. We are not just prepared to do it for the exercise.” Full remarks in Munich here. http://1.usa.gov/Y5uRHa

Indirect response - Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi was positive, yet guarded and noncommittal in a response to Biden’s statement:

--”We take these statements with positive consideration. I think this is a step forward but ... each time we have come and negotiated it was the other side unfortunately who did not heed ... its commitment," said Salehi. Adrian Croft and Alexandra Hudson of Reuters report.http://owl.li/hoSrJ

Slow process - The new round of negotiations comes after months of stalling and back and forth over where/if to schedule talks. “The fact that it took two months to agree on where to meet gives some idea of the trials ahead,” writes Julian Borger in a context-setting article on the upcoming Kazakhstan meeting. http://bit.ly/YOR8PG

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Super Bowl - Ploughshares Fund is based in San Francisco. Early Warning is written from the DC office. So, with much indecision, we congratulate Coach Harbaugh on a great game last night.

--A Hyundai commercial during the Super Bowl briefly featured a scary looking missile. At first glance, it didn’t look like anything in the US arsenal, but we’re going to go ahead and assume that it was nuclear and a good justification for buying a Sonata Turbo. (video) http://bit.ly/YOGQiw

Tweet - @Gottemoeller: Secretary Kerry is introduced to the Department of State--a warm welcome to him and his team. http://bit.ly/YxhQZ2

N. Korea test site - New Satellite imagery confirms reports of activity at North Korea’s likely nuclear test site. New report from ISIS: “Monitoring Activity at Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site” by David Albright and Robert Avagyan. (pdf) http://bit.ly/WmBW7T

Georgia’s broken arrow - A nuclear weapon dropped in the waters off the coast of Georgia during a failed training exercise continues to concern residents 55 years after the incident. The bomb has not been found despite several attempts to locate it.

--“If it would have been dropped in the Potomac River, it would have been found a long time ago. There’s a lot of weapons-grade nuclear material (in the bomb). When this was lost, all the nuclear material was written off the books,” said retired Air Force Col. Derek Duke. Experts say “the public should not be concerned about the bomb exploding.” The “worst thing that would happen is, it would leak plutonium,” a threat even the experts debate. Gordon Jackson of the Marietta Daily Journal has the story. http://owl.li/hoUZg

Talking past each other - “We have made clear from the outset that NATO has made the decision to establish a NATO missile defense system because it’s our obligation to ensure effective defense of our populations...Having said that, we have invited Russia to cooperate and ... now it’s up to Russia to engage in that,” said NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen at the Munich Security Conference.

--“Officially we have abandoned the mindset of the Cold War — Russia and NATO countries say that they do not see each other as adversaries ... but we should admit that we should still come a long way to match our words with deeds,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the same conference. AP has the story. http://wapo.st/XScswM

Engaging N. Korea - It’s time to break the cycle of escalation with North Korea and reboot the diplomatic process, write Gov. Bill Richardson and Mickey Bergman in The Washington Post.

--Proposed steps toward a reboot: North Korea should refrain from nuclear or missile tests; the U.S. should engage in direct dialogue with North Korea; and the international community should encourage direct dialogue between North and South Korea. Full op-ed here. http://wapo.st/XSe6yx

Hiroshima, Sept. 1945 - “A good deal has been written about Hiroshima, but no-one can describe adequately the smell — and the flies,” said then-Col. Roscoe C. Wilson in his first-hand account of visiting the city in September 1945. Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data has the story, the photos, and the first impressions of the bomb’s aftermath. http://bit.ly/11kLTca

Events:

--”Dealing with a Nuclear Iran: Redlines and Deadlines.” Gen. James Cartwright, Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and seven other speakers. February 6, 8:30 a.m.-12:30 p.m. @ CSIS. http://owl.li/hbQKm

--”What to do about Nuclear Outliers Iran and North Korea?” Robert Litwak, Vice President for Scholars and Academic Relations and Director of Int. Security Studies, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. February 6, 12:00-1:30 p.m. @ George Washington University. http://owl.li/hbTo6

--”Year of Decision: U.S. Policy toward Iran in 2013.” Thomas Pickering and James F. Jeffrey. February 7, 12:30p.m. @ The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/hp2Nx

--”Five Myths About Nuclear Weapons: A Pragmatic Re-appraisal.” Ward Wilson, Senior Fellow at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute. February 14, 3:30-5:00 p.m. @ American University, School of International Service. http://owl.li/hkKOD

Dessert:

From the archives - “Atlas ICBM Factory” on YouTube. http://bit.ly/11kFYDY

Spaceman - "I am ready to be the first human to be sent to space by Iranian scientists," said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad one week after Iran declared it put a monkey in space. http://reut.rs/XarKPp