Keep Ballistic Missiles Off Table, Resolve Iran Nuclear Negotiations

June 4, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Leave out the ICBMs - “Despite the positive atmosphere, the latest round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 did not result in a final agreement,” writes Reza Nasri for The National Interest. “Various sources reveal that one of the main obstacles preventing a final deal was Western countries' insistence—and Iran's refusal—to place Iran’s ballistic missiles program on the discussion agenda.”

--“From a legal standpoint, the United States argues that Security Council resolution 1929 prohibits activities related to Iran's ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons. Therefore, it contends, since the Geneva's Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) talks of ‘addressing Security Council resolutions,’ the issue of Iran's ballistic missiles should also fall into the topics under discussion. Iran refuses this interpretation of the JPOA, claiming that its military capabilities constitute a sovereign right that is unrelated to the nuclear dossier.”

--With that being said, “without nuclear weapons in the picture—or without a program that could potentially produce nuclear weapons—(which is the expected outcome of the negotiations), the prohibition is automatically rendered irrelevant. Therefore, discussing it in violation of the JPOA—and without the consent of one of the parties—seems fruitless and counterproductive more than anything else.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1kL1HYJ

Strange bedfellows - “Angry with the West’s response over Ukraine and eager to diversify its options, Russia is moving rapidly to bolster ties with North Korea in a diplomatic nose-thumbing that could complicate the U.S.-led effort to squeeze Pyongyang into giving up its nuclear weapons program,” the AP reports. “Moscow’s overtures to North Korea reflect both a defensive distancing from the EU and Washington because of their sanctions over Ukraine and a broader, long-term effort by Russia to strengthen its hand in Asia by building political alliances, expanding energy exports and developing Russian regions in Siberia and the Far East.”

--“For North Korea, the timing couldn’t be better. Better ties with Russia could provide a much needed economic boost, a counterbalance against Chinese influence and a potentially useful wedge against the West in international forums — and particularly in the U.S.-led effort to isolate Pyongyang over its development of nuclear weapons.” Russia has “pledged to reinvest $1 billion that Pyongyang still owes into a trans-Siberian railway through North Korea to South Korea — a project that is still in the very early stages. That, together with a pipeline, would allow Russia to export gas and electricity to South Korea.” Read the full report here. http://wapo.st/1ov7mGz

Test fire - “Project 955 Borei-class strategic missile-carrying nuclear submarine cruiser Vladimir Monomakh will test-launch an intercontinental ballistic missile Bulava for the first time in August-September 2014, and Borei-class nuclear submarine Yuri Dolgoruky will test-fire another Bulava missile in November, a source in the Russian governmental military industrial committee told ITAR-TASS on Tuesday.” Read the full report from The Voice of Russia here. http://bit.ly/1uhQhU2

Growing concern - “The European Union said on Wednesday it was concerned that North Korea - which has threatened to carry out a new nuclear test - was enhancing its ability to miniaturize nuclear warheads for the country's missiles,” Reuters reports. Full article here. http://reut.rs/1pF3JRW

Information sharing - “The U.S. military has shared its Patriot operations manual with South Korea as part of a broader effort to foster bilateral missile defense interoperability,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The manual contains specifications for the training and use of the Patriot air and missile defense system. Though a seemingly small action between two longtime military allies, the U.S. military said the event was significant because it could open the way to much deeper missile defense cooperation.”

--“Seoul for years has resisted U.S. entreaties to join a regional antimissile framework. However, Washington has continued to push the issue, seeing the establishment of an East Asia ballistic missile shield as critical to responding to the growing threat of North Korea's nuclear missile programs.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1kx9XA2

Tweet - @breakingnuclear: Towards Global Consensus: Highlighting African States’ Role in A Nuclear Weapons Ban - by International Campaign... fb.me/3ooAMSoJ9

Chinese cruise missile - “U.S. military analysts are concerned that China could be contemplating arming its growing arsenal of cruise missiles with nuclear warheads,” Global Security Newswire reports. “A new report on the Chinese cruise missile threat by the U.S. National Defense University notes that the People's Liberation Army in the future could turn to nuclear-tipped cruise missiles to counter U.S. Navy carrier strike groups… Factors making the deployment of nuclear-armed, low-altitude missiles less likely include China's relatively weak command-and-control capabilities, and that doing so would seem to go against its nuclear doctrine. Beijing says it retains nuclear weapons solely as a means of deterring attack, and that it would never be the first side to use such armaments in a conflict.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1jQA409

Dirty bombs - “With its supply of helium running out, the Pentagon is funding research into alternative methods for detecting the presence of possible ‘dirty bombs,’" reports Rachel Oswald for Global Security Newswire. “Helium 3 gas is employed in most of the nuclear-detection systems in use today. The rare substance is currently produced as a byproduct of the radioactive decay of tritium, a material used in nuclear warheads. As helium 3 is collected from aging warheads, the supply of the gas has dwindled as the U.S. nuclear arsenal has grown smaller.”

--“That has prompted the Pentagon's Defense Threat Reduction Agency to seek out promising new technologies that can supplant the use of helium 3 in detection devices, which are used to find radiological substances… To that end, the agency has awarded a $2.8 million contract to Alion Science and Technology of McLean, Va., to further its research into a next-generation detection system that utilizes bundles of thin copper tubes coated with boron.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1kqBC6V

Rejecting chatter - “Washington insisted it is still trying to seal a final nuclear accord with Iran by next month, despite pessimistic comments by officials,” Global Security Newswire reports. “We are working towards the July 20 date, and we believe we can meet that date," said State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf. "Of course, Iran will have to make tough decisions and the administration remains clear that no deal is better than a bad deal." Full story here. http://bit.ly/UbgcAi

Seeking explanations - “A senior U.S. lawmaker wants the Obama administration to explain how it would respond if Iran and Russia finalize a ‘sanctions-busting’ oil deal,” writes Diane Barnes in Global Security Newswire. “U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R-Calif.) said the potential ‘oil-for-goods’ plan would circumvent international efforts to squeeze concessions from Iran on its bomb-usable nuclear activities. In a Monday letter, he asked Secretary of State John Kerry to identify what ‘designation and enforcement steps’ the administration would pursue if the potential $20 billion arrangement takes effect.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1h9mAlr

Tweet - @plough_shares: Michael Douglas: "There is a broad bipartisan consensus that nuclear weapons are no longer an asset to our security." pic.twitter.com/X9Ghh47ibF

The nuclear weapon-dragon nexus - “On the surface, Game of Thrones is merely another cable television series with the requisite battles, backstabbing court intrigue, and scantily clad (or unclad) characters. But it has deeper meanings with a surprising number of lessons about peace and security for real life. Commentators from institutions such as the Fletcher School of Diplomacy, Foreign Policy, and the Atlantic.com have written about how this HBO show—based upon George R.R. Martin’s epic fantasy series, A Song of Fire and Ice—helps explain international relations in the real world.”

--“One parallel, however, has escaped analysis: dragons as living, fire-breathing metaphors for nuclear weapons. Despite the fantasy setting, the story teaches a great deal about the inherent dangers that come with managing these game-changing agents, their propensity for accidents, the relative benefits they grant their masters, and the strain these weapons impose upon those wielding them.”

--“‘Dragons are the nuclear deterrent, and only [Daenerys Targaryen, one of the series’ heroines] has them, which in some ways makes her the most powerful person in the world,’ Martin said in 2011. ‘But is that sufficient? These are the kind of issues I’m trying to explore. The United States right now has the ability to destroy the world with our nuclear arsenal, but that doesn’t mean we can achieve specific geopolitical goals. Power is more subtle than that. You can have the power to destroy, but it doesn’t give you the power to reform, or improve, or build.’ It makes for a bleak outlook. Or, as a character repeatedly warns in the first episode: ‘Winter is coming.’” Read the full article by Timothy Westmyer for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists here. http://bit.ly/1mS2LNw

Quick-hit:

--“Khamenei at 25 Years - What is His Legacy?” in The Iran Primer. http://bit.ly/1nMyFQr

Events:

--“Israel, Saudi, and Iranian Responses in the Days After a Deal With Iran.” Discussion with Alireza Nader, Dalia Dassa Kaye, and Jeffrey Martini. Moderated by Lynne Davis. June 4 from 1:00 to 2:00 at 2200 Rayburn House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/RBn07W

--“Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: India, Pakistan, China and the Future of Deterrence Stability." Discussion with Vipin Narang and Peter Lavoy. June 4 from 3:00 to 4:30 at the Stimson Center, 1111 19th St., NW, Floor 12. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1h9mbzS

--“Nuclear Flashpoints: U.S.-Iran Tensions Over Terms and Timetables.” Discussion with Stephen Hadley, Jon Wolfsthal, Daryl Kimball and Robert Litwak. June 10 from 9:30 to 11:00 at the Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, floor 6. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1tqM3Hk

--“War With Iran? Should the United States Use Military Force Against Iran if Nuclear Diplomacy Fails?” Debate with Georgetown University and University of Michigan students; comments by Colin Kahl. June 13 from 9:00-12:00 at the Willard Intercontinental Hotel, The Willard Room, 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1gXWlOJ

--“How to Unwind Iran Nuclear Sanctions.” Discussion with Kenneth Katzman and Cornelius Adebahr; moderated by Barbara Slavin. June 16 at 2:00 at The Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor (West Tower). RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1h9DpN2