Lasting Solution With Iran Requires Diplomacy

On the radar: Pickering and Mathews on Iran; Sidelines at UN; Messy missile defense politics; the Illusion of safety; and Early warning ruins.

September 16, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Way forward with Iran - “As current events demonstrate, the security challenges of the Middle East cannot be permanently solved solely through the use of American military power. On Iran and other regional challenges, the only lasting solutions will be diplomatic ones,” write Amb. Thomas Pickering and Jessica Tuchman Mathews.

--The authors explain how early signals from Iran’s new pragmatist president “bode well for nuclear negotiations,” and that the U.S. must be prepared to accept a deal with Iran and relax sanctions if Iran cooperates. “It is squarely in America’s national security interest to explore the new opening that now exists in U.S.-Iranian relations.” Full article in The Cleveland Plain Dealer. http://bit.ly/150lxJ6

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Tweet - @AliVaez: Intelligence Sources: Rohani Prepared to Shut Down Nuclear Site via @SpiegelOnline http://t.co/ANzfyWmPyx

UNGA rumors - Presidents Obama and Rouhani may meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next week. The meeting, which would be “the first face-to face encounter between a US and Iranian leader since Iran’s 1979 revolution,” may have been prompted by an exchange of letters between the two heads of state. Rouhani also announced that he will meet with Britain’s foreign secretary, William Hague.

--Given tensions over Syria “US officials were skeptical about a Rouhani meeting, but some observers said the Geneva deal on Syria's chemical weapons has opened new space for global diplomacy. ‘Rouhani needs to show that through his diplomatic efforts he has already avoided a war. He is desperate in his first six months to show his approach has paid more dividends than the hardline approach of his predecessor,’” said Iran expert Trita Parsi of the National Iranian American Council in an interview with The Guardian’s Julian borger. Full story here. http://ow.ly/oUlH4

Missing ingredient - “If the US really believes in a diplomatic resolution of Syria’s fratricidal war it” need to invite Iran to the table. With Iran at the Syria table there is no guarantee diplomacy will work. Without Iran at the table, though, failure is more likely.”

--The downside to the US’ singular focus on Iran’s nuclear program “is that America and Iran are not talking to each other about a range of issues where Iran has influence, including Afghanistan, Iraq, terrorism, as well as Syria.” Engaging Iran “is a win-win. If the Iranians help stabilize the situation in Syria, and if that in turn creates a better climate for a nuclear deal, then the world is a safer place. If we engage the Iranians and they don’t reciprocate then it becomes clearer than ever that the problem is Tehran, not Washington,’” writes Bill Keller in The New York Times. http://ow.ly/oUu68

Missile defense politics - A House Republican initiative to force the Pentagon to spend money it doesn’t have to put a missile defense system that doesn’t work in an eastern state that is poorly situated for a mission against a missile threat from Iran that doesn’t exist… is moving forward, after the Missile Defense Agency last week announced five potential locations for a third missile defense site.

--Kingston Reif analyzes the messy political around this missile defense proposal. At Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/14VLHCe

Budget trouble for MOX - “MOX in Limbo as Government Assesses Possible Alternatives” by Rob Pavey at The Augusta Chronicle. http://bit.ly/180w9vw

History of nuclear close calls - “Just days after JFK was sworn in as president, one of the most terrifying weapons in our arsenal was a hair's breadth from detonating on American soil…The only thing standing between us and an explosion so catastrophic that it would have radically altered the course of history was a simple electronic toggle switch in the cockpit, a part that probably cost a couple of bucks to manufacture and easily could have been undermined by a short circuit—hardly a far-fetched scenario in an electronics-laden airplane that's breaking apart,” writes Michael Mechanic of Mother Jones in a review of the new book by Eric Schlosser.

--”Easily the most unsettling work of nonfiction I've ever read, Schlosser's six-year investigation of America's "broken arrows" (nuclear weapons mishaps) is by and large historical—this stuff is top secret, after all—but the book is beyond relevant. It's critical reading in a nation with thousands of nukes still on hair-trigger alert.” http://bit.ly/1eibUxU

--Interview with the author. http://bit.ly/180s3Ul

--Buy a copy: ”Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety” by Eric Schlosser. http://amzn.to/14VKHxU

Syria roundup:

--”U.S.-Russian Joint Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons.” Analysis by Darly Kimball at Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/180v2fk

--”Syrian Chemical Weapons Agreement Faces Major Obstacles” by Terry Atlas of Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1eimhBU

Lansing Lamont, 1931-2013 - “Lansing Lamont, a journalist who was credited with writing the first popular account of the building and testing of the atomic bombs used in the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, died on Sept. 3.” Obituary from Paul Vitello of The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/168CsZt

Events:

--”Unthinkable: Iran, the Bomb, and American Strategy” Discussion with author Kenneth Pollack on his new book, with Tamara Cofman Wittes and Robin Wright. September 16 from 2:30-4:00pm at Brookings. http://bit.ly/18Xath8

--Missile Defense Agency and U.S. Navy test launch two Standard Missile-3 Block IB interceptors at short-range ballistic missile targets. Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site, Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands, Central Pacific Ocean. Week of September 16.

--”Iran Sanctions: Tool or Hinderance?” Sens. Richard Blumenthal and Dan Coats. September 17, 10:00-11:00 AM @ Capitol Visitor Center. Details here. http://ow.ly/oUzvQ

--Book Discussion of Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident and the Illusion of Safety.” Eric Schlosser. September 19 @1:20-2:45 PM. New America Foundation. http://ow.ly/oUA74

Dessert:

Radar ruins - From the 1930s to the 1970s, untold billions of dollars were spent putting radar stations in remote parts of the world to track planes or detect missile launches. Many of these stations now sit abandoned. Gizmodo rounds up some amazing photos of the sites. “8 Abandoned Radar Stations That Were Once State-of-the-Art” http://bit.ly/150aFuR