Making the Grade on Nonproliferation

On the radar: Nuclear report card; South Korean PM opposes redeployment; BMD “extraordinarily expensive”; Dempsey in China; CTBT verifiable; and CIA documents on China’s nuclear assistance to Pakistan.

April 25, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Limited progress - As states convene in Geneva this week to discuss the implementation of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, a new Arms Control Association report assesses the “performance of 11 key states in 10 universally recognized nonproliferation, disarmament, and nuclear security categories.”

--Key findings - while states have taken “limited steps” to reduce the “dangers posed by nuclear weapons,” the pace of nonproliferation efforts have failed to match the severity of nuclear threats. Little progress has been made to mitigate the proliferation threat posed by states of concern (North Korea, Iran, Syria). The UK, US, and Russia have made important strides towards the disarmament goals established by the NPT.

--Grades given according to countries’ nonproliferation efforts: UK (B+); France (B); Russia (B); US (B-); China (B-); India (C+); Israel (C-); Pakistan (C-); Iran (D+); Syria (D-); North Korea (F). Full report here (pdf). http://owl.li/kpPxX

No redeployment, says PM - "The [South Korean] government remains committed to maintaining the principle of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula...While not pursuing independent nuclear sovereignty, I think [South Korea] can deter [the North's] nuclear programs by managing the extended deterrence provided by the United States," said South Korean Prime Minister Chung Hong-won said during a parliamentary interpellation session. Yonhap has the story. http://bit.ly/12Kk2jQ

Tweet - @PaulMcCartney: I support the @GlobalZero movement to eliminate nuclear weapons. Watch this video and #demandzero. http://t.co/DjaOngzhmo

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Quote - “I would also say, you know, ballistic missile defense is a(n) important investment. It's also -- it can get to be extraordinarily expensive,” said Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey in a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

--”And so one of the things we have to do is balance defense and offense. I often use the phrase that at some point you have to stop worrying about the arrow and start worrying about the archer. And I would suggest to our potential adversaries that we haven't forgotten that we also have capabilities to deal with the archer.” Nukes of Hazard has the quote. http://bit.ly/15QeM0Q

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: We'll miss Amb. George Bunn, former NPT negotiator, arms control advocate, wonderful person. http://bit.ly/17kispU

Dempsey on DPRK -"We are no longer in a period of cyclical provocations...we are in a period of prolonged provocations. I think the risk of miscalculation is higher, and the risk of an escalation is higher," said Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, commenting on US-North Korean relations.

--Dempsey, who has been in China speaking with officials on a number of issues, offered his impression of Beijing’s position on the North: "I will leave here with the belief that China is as concerned as we are about North Korea’s march toward nuclearization and missile technology.” Barbara Demick of the Los Angeles Times has the story. http://owl.li/kpTFd

Tweet - @FAScientists: Hans Kristensen slides and briefing materials from NPT PRECOM meeting in Geneva now available http://t.co/UuOnR8sxTz

Verifiable - Opponents of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty largely oppose its ratification on the grounds of verification - if a state tests a nuclear weapon, can we detect it? The CTBTO’s recent detection of radiological particles from North Korea’s February nuclear test suggests that verification is possible even when countries try to prevent the emission of noble gasses - as DPRK did, writes Jon Wolfsthal in the Huffington Post. As such, there is one less reason to oppose the treaty’s ratification. Article here. http://owl.li/kpVsU

Tweet - @AtomicHeritage: Exciting news: today @NatResources approved the #ManhattanProject National Historical Park Act by unanimous consent. http://bit.ly/10CC89q

Events:

--”Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions: Costs, Risks, and Motivations.” Ali Vaez, James Acton, Mohammad jahan-Parvar and Karim Sadjadpour discuss a new report. April 25 from noon-1:45 p.m. @ Carnegie. Details here. http://bit.ly/15zOM9I

--”The Media & Iran’s Nuclear Program: An analysis of U.S. and U.K. coverage, 2009-2012” Jonas Siegal and Saranaz Barforoush present a new study, followed by discussion with John Steinbruner, Susan Moeller, Reza Marashi and Walter Pincus. April 29th from 9:00-10:30am at the Woodrow Wilson Center. http://bit.ly/13qzY9r

--”Dealing With North Korea’s Increased Belligerence.” Gordon Flake, Paul Haenle, Jin Canrong, Zhang Chuanjie, and Zhu Feng. April 29 12:00-2:200 p.m. @ Carnegie. Details here. http://owl.li/kl29g

--”Reducing Global Weapons Dangers: Bolstering the NPT and Building the New ATT Regime.” Ellen Tauscher, Leon Sigal, Joel Wit, Fabrice Barielle, Rachel Stohl, Paul O’Brien. May 6, 9:00am-1:30pm @ Carnegie, Root Room. Details Here. http://owl.li/kotkn

Dessert:

Declassified - “China was exporting nuclear materials to Third World countries without safeguards beginning in the early 1980s, and may have given Pakistan weapons design information in the early years of its clandestine program, according to recently declassified CIA records,” announced The GW National Security Archive with its release of a trove of newly declassified documents.

--”The formerly Top Secret reports, published today by the National Security Archive and the Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, are the CIA's first-ever declassifications of allegations that Beijing supported Islamabad's nuclear ambitions.” Links to archived docs here. http://bit.ly/15JDKze