The Myth of Nuclear Dominoes in the Middle East

No nuclear dominoes - “As negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program continue, one thing we do not need to worry about is a nuclear arms race in the Middle East,” writes nuclear proliferation scholar Dr. Albert Wolf in The Washington Post.

--The technical, political, and economic hurdles involved in building indigenous nuclear capability are immense, Wolf argues. Despite their rhetoric, Arab nations like Saudi Arabia are unlikely to try to develop their own weapons. “There is scant evidence that proliferation begets proliferation,” Wolf writes. http://wapo.st/1HhPcSV

Nuclear safety negotiations - One way to alleviate tension between Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbors over its nuclear program is to focus on an issue of shared concern, such as the safety of Iran’s nuclear power plants, write Mark Fitzpatrick and Jacqueline Shire for Reuters.

--Iranian officials have stated that they are ready to establish a regional safety pact to monitor nuclear facilities, and many Gulf states are concerned that an accident at an Iranian facility could contaminate their water or air. “Bringing up ‘soft power’ issues, such as nuclear safety, is one way for Washington to help bring Iran and the Gulf states to the table together, ” Fitzpatrick and Shire argue. Full story here: http://reut.rs/1H6SOo1

House passes Iran bill - The House passed legislation authorizing Congress to review a final nuclear deal with Iran, AP’s Deb Riechmann reports. The measure passed overwhelmingly, 400 to 25. The legislation would allow Congress the means to suspend waiving of sanctions on Iran while Congress reviews the deal and considers a resolution of approval or disapproval. Full story here: http://wapo.st/1KaiGWh

Gottemoeller - Rose Gottemoeller, U.S Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, shares her insights on the NPT Review Conference, the status of New START, and Russian nuclear saber rattling in an interview with John Mecklin for The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

--On the NPT: “You know, the sense that somehow we're sitting back and resting on our laurels on [disarmament], it's not the case whatsoever. We recognize there's more work to be done.”

--On New START: “New START is working very well despite our bilateral differences with Russia over Ukraine. New START is being smoothly implemented.” Full interview here: http://bit.ly/1FcRqST

Tweet - @CQnow: House adopted 235-182 @RepDLamborn amend that would limit funding for implementing the new START treaty #FY16NDAA

Defense budget priorities - As it prepares to vote on the defense budget, Congress should consider the tradeoff between funding nuclear modernization and funding for conventional capabilities that U.S. troops are more likely to need, argues Stimson Center foreign affairs fellow Laicie Heeley in Breaking Defense.

--Plans to modernize the nuclear triad will total nearly $348 billion over the next decade. “But this cost does not come without tradeoffs,” Heeley writes. “Systems we really need, like Army combat helicopters, theater missile defenses and advanced drone development don’t have enough money already and it’s going to get worse.” http://bit.ly/1IChxq4

Tweet - @ArmsControlNow: SASC Markup Whacks Long-range Strategic Bomber; Adds 12 Super Hornets, 6 F-35Bs « Breaking Defense http://t.co/X8lQvXm6G0

Frosty relations - While Russia announced that it would decline American assistance and funding in securing its own nuclear stockpiles, Harvard nonproliferation expert Matt Bunn notes that the real loss is in experience, not expenses. “The personal relationships among technical people have often been a crucial backchannel that allowed our countries to overcome problems in the past,” Bunn says.

--Corey Flintoff of NPR’s “All Things Considered” examines expert opinion on the effects of the deterioration of U.S-Russia relations on nuclear inspections and arms control treaties. Full transcript here: http://n.pr/1EKXzCq

U.K. nuclear policy - While the Conservative victory in the recent U.K. elections likely mean that plans to modernize the U.K.’s submarine-based nuclear deterrent will go ahead, plans to modernize the Trident system still face hurdles, says Paul Ingram, Executive Director of the British American Security Information Council (BASIC).

--Britain’s missile subs are based in Scottish ports, but Scottish public opinion remains strongly opposed to nuclear weapons. “Trident, a system designed during the Cold War to protect the Union, could yet be a critical catalyst for its destruction in the longer run,” Ingram says. Full article at The Huffington Post. http://bit.ly/1EKM9hW

Tweet - @jabdi: Iran maps out plans to revive economy once sanctions are lifted, doesn't expect relief to be felt until after March http://t.co/HU0dZUqOkK

”WMD” - “US intelligence agencies did not believe Saddam Hussein had any active nuclear weapons program, certainly nothing that put him anywhere near the ability to create a weapon… there was zero evidence of any imminent or even medium term threat of nuclear weapons. None. But by using the ambiguity of WMD code word the White House went to great lengths… to convince Americans that Saddam Hussein might be on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons.” Talking Points Memo’s Josh Marshall on the campaign to sell the Iraq war. http://bit.ly/1GcABti

Tweet - @jabdi: Iran maps out plans to revive economy once sanctions are lifted, doesn't expect relief to be felt until after March http://t.co/HU0dZUqOkK

Quick Hits:

--”Iran’s Zarif Says Nuclear Deal ‘Very Likely’: Spiegel,” by Caroline Copley for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1Gco9JW

--”ACA Annual Meeting Keynote Transcript,” from the Arms Control Association. http://bit.ly/1EKM9hW