Nuclear Insecurity: Nunn & Lugar Call for Return to US-Russia Cooperation

On the radar: Russian withdrawal is a lose-lose; Nunn-Lugar was a bargain; The apocalypse that wasn’t; NYT warns against new sanctions; Spoilers in the wings; Long on words, short on plans; Smart SSBN replacement; and Russia’s century-old sub recovery ship.

January 26, 2015 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Lose-lose - “For more than two decades, the United States and Russia partnered to secure and eliminate dangerous nuclear materials — not as a favor to one another but as a common-sense commitment, born of mutual self-interest, to prevent catastrophic nuclear terrorism,” write former Senators Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar in The Washington Post. “Unfortunately, this common-sense cooperation has become the latest casualty of the spiraling crisis in relations among the United States, Europe and Russia.”

--“These shortsighted actions send a dangerous message to the international community and represent a major setback in the global effort to secure nuclear materials...Failing to cooperate in this area is a ‘lose-lose’ proposition that would damage the vital interests of both nations and vastly increase the risk of nuclear terrorism. The United States and Russia must recognize the imperative to provide global leadership. The consequences of inaction are simply too great.” Full column here. http://wapo.st/15zDcOk

Our better angels - “There is no question that the $1.6 billion a year or so spent for this goal has been a bargain. Two decades of operational experience in Nunn-Lugar may also prove valuable should another nuclear-armed nation suddenly collapse. Russia may be withdrawing, but the potential threats aren’t going away,” editorializes The Washington Post.

--“Nunn-Lugar is no longer just about Russia and the former Soviet Union. The programs have been used to get dangerous materials out of Libya and to destroy much of the Syrian chemical weapons stocks; to establish sentinels for biological threats on several continents; and to secure potentially vulnerable civilian nuclear material around the world, among other things.” Full editorial here. http://wapo.st/1ygLEIO

--Additional Coverage: “US-Russian rift threatens security of nuclear material,” by Julian Borger in The Guardian. http://bit.ly/1uNaLbL

Accidental apocalypse - 20 years ago yesterday, a weather rocket launched from Norway triggered Russia’s early warning systems and almost started a nuclear war. Russia’s very spotty early warning systems have improved since then, but the U.S.-Russia relationship worsened. So the threat of accidental nuclear war persists, writes Theodore Postol in The Boston Globe.

--Today, “Moscow could still have no more than six to seven minutes warning of a Trident submarine attack. That small window of time is inadequate for reflection, assessment, and decision-making. This dangerous shortfall could greatly increase the chances of unrecoverable accidents involving the central strategic nuclear forces of Russia and the United States.” Full story and policy recommendations here. http://bit.ly/1JtaQo2

A breach of sense - Inviting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Congress to challenge President Obama’s approach to achieving a nuclear agreement with Iran, is “a breach of sense and diplomacy,” write the editors of The New York Times. “Mr. Netanyahu has long defined Iran as Israel’s top threat and made clear his contempt for negotiations. Like his Congressional allies, however, he has never offered a real alternative, except more sanctions or military action.”

--“A move by Congress to pass legislation proposing new sanctions could blow up the talks and divide the major powers that have been united in pressuring Iran. Given an excuse to withdraw from talks, Iran could accelerate its nuclear program, curbed for a year under an interim agreement, and force the United States or Israel to use military action or a cyberattack to keep Tehran from producing nuclear weapons...If a deal is finally reached and Congress finds it lacking, tougher sanctions can be imposed then.” Full editorial here. http://nyti.ms/1tghr17

Tweet - @TomCollina: U.S. Gen. Eaton: New #Iran sanx "put a gun to Iran’s head" in the guise of a "doomsday device.” http://bit.ly/1LbgFZ0

Spoiler alert - “America and Iran took a step toward a final nuclear deal on Jan. 18, but they should be making leaps,” writes Ellie Geranmayeh in The New York Times. “The negotiators have proposed some creative solutions but major political compromises are sorely needed, and soon...Those who oppose any diplomacy between Iran and the West are already seeking to end the process altogether. With time, they will gain further ammunition.” Full column here. http://nyti.ms/1BeFRFX

What hawks stand to lose - “Pondering the looming specter of a nuclear-armed Iran, some Americans are deeply worried that we won't reach a deal to block that possibility. Some people have a different fear: that we will,” writes Steve Chapman about what’s at stake for hardliners playing politics with Iranian nuclear negotiations. “Hawks have much invested in the belief that force is the only useful tool in countering adversaries and that Obama is a naive appeaser. It would be a huge embarrassment,” if skillful diplomacy keeps Iran from getting the bomb.

--“There's no guarantee the talks will ultimately produce an agreement that will make it sufficiently difficult and time-consuming for Iran to build a bomb…[But] there is a plausible deal that would stop [Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions] -- and give us plenty of time to act should it ever resume.” Full column in The Chicago Tribune. http://bit.ly/1yIJHtJ

--Cited: “Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Separating Myth from Reality,” issue brief from the Arms Control Association. http://bit.ly/1yVjfxn

Zarif warns on sanctions - Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned the U.S. on Friday against imposing new sanctions against his country, saying this would lead to a collapse of negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program. Full story here. http://yhoo.it/1JEOfTz

Sinking the future Navy - The Navy is pursuing plans for a $100 billion missile submarine program it has no way to pay for and which pose a major threat to other naval priorities. As Tom Collina and Jacob Marx write in Breaking Defense, “Pentagon procurement decisions worth tens of billions of dollars should not be based on obsolete strategy...The worst thing we could do right now is waste scarce resources on yesterday’s weapons, starving the programs we really need.” Full column here. http://bit.ly/1L5aNQR

Nukes in Europe - House Republicans are putting pressure on the administration, urging the White House to deploy nuclear weapons with NATO allies in Eastern Europe as a response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Martin Matishak in The Hill has the story. http://bit.ly/1BksRRK

--Read the letter from Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH) and Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL). (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1zi2ZZ0

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: South Korea to spearhead efforts to launch six-party talks aimed at #NorthKorea 's "complete denuclearization" http://t.co/XKrhOW4JCt

False security - Although the Cold War came to an end nearly 25 years ago, “an unacceptably high number of nuclear weapons remain,” writes Will Saetren in The Hill. If the human race is ever to fully escape the threat of nuclear annihilation “the debate on nuclear security has to be revived, and citizens must hold their leaders accountable for holding the entire world hostage for the sake of a false sense of security.” Full column here. http://bit.ly/1CY53T4

Menendez under pressure - “A liberal group that has spent more than $1 million in the last two congressional elections in support of Democratic candidates has lined up against U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez over his support of stronger sanctions against Iran,” reports NJ.com. “A key test of any senators' progressive credentials is whether they push us toward another costly war of choice in the Middle East,” said Zack Malitz of Credo. “Sadly, Senator Menendez fails that test.” Full story by Jonathan Salant. http://bit.ly/15Fs2rY

Quick Hits:

--“The Real Nuclear Nightmare When It Comes to U.S.-Russian Ties,” by Matthew Bunn in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1BrGoa6

--“Middle Eastern Turmoil and the Scaremongering on Iran,” by Paul Pillar in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1wxLZq4

--“America Upgrades Its Biggest Bomb,” by James Drew in War is Boring. http://bit.ly/1EmVpOe

--“Why the Iran sanctions fight is a big deal,” explainer by Jeremy Diamond for CNN. http://cnn.it/1Lb2N0Q

--“WH Chief of Staff on Iran negotiations: ‘Congress should let us finish this job,’” on CNN’s State of the Union. http://cnn.it/1uvanc9

Events:

--Senate Banking Committee, hearing on "Perspectives on the Strategic Necessity of Iran Sanctions," with witnesses TBA. January 27 at 10:00 a.m. Located in the Dirksen Senate Office Building, room 538, Washington DC. Webcast on the committee website.

--"Australia and the Bomb," featuring Christine Leah, Yale University; Christian Ostermann, Wilson Center; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 28, 2:00-3:30 p.m., Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

-- “Debunk the Myths of Iran Sanctions,” featuring Kate Gould, Legislative Associate for Middle East Policy, Friends Committee on National Legislation. Hosted by Physicians for Social Responsibility. Wed, Jan 28, 2015 8:30 PM - 9:30 PM EST. Register here.

--"Avoiding Disaster in a New Era of Superpower Tension." Featuring Nikolas Gvosdev, U.S. Naval War College; Fiona Hill, Brookings Institution; Ali Wyne, RAND; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 29 from 6:30-8:00 p.m. Located at the FHI Conference Center, Eighth Floor, 1825 Connecticut Ave. NW, Washington DC. Sponsored by PS21: Project for the Study of the 21st Century. RSVP. online

--“Rally to Say No to a $1 Trillion Nuclear Arsenal.” Hosted by Global Zero, from 1:00-3:00 p.m. on January 31. Located at the Ellipse (south of the White House), Washington, DC. RSVP online.

--"The Nuclear Enterprise: Past and Future." Featuring Michael Elliott, Deputy Director for Strategic Stability Plans and Policy Directorate, Joint Chiefs of Staff. February 3 from 9:30-10:30 a.m. Located at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Second Floor Hess Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington DC. RSVP online.

Dessert:

Still got it - “For what it lacks in beauty it sure makes up for it in character, Russia's 100 year old Kommunais the world's oldest active naval vessel. Launched as a submarine tender back 1915, this pre-Bolshevik Revolution relic continues to serve as a salvage ship and midget sub tender as part of Russia's Black Sea Fleet.” http://bit.ly/1BrDpOQ