Nuclear Watchdog Confident in Detection Abilities

Confidence - “If any country that would try today to hide a nuclear test explosion, we have, I would say, more than a 90% chance in detecting it," Lassina Zerbo, the Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization told CNN in an exclusive interview.

--As negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program enter their final phase, Zerbo said that, “even if the negotiations break down or Iran violates an agreement, the international community has ways of ascertaining its nuclear activities.” Full story here. http://cnn.it/1BHZtlC

Timing - Negotiators are working round the clock to finalize a written framework agreement by their self-imposed deadline of midnight tonight. Another option, however, is releasing a statement of understanding, possibly verbal, followed by a more detailed document a few days later.

--Yet a third option is to pause the talks and resume next week, allowing some time before the more important deadline: when Congress returns on April 13. The Guardian’s Julian Borger lays out the different scenarios. http://bit.ly/19wexfL

--See also: “Negotiations Over Iran's Nuclear Program Come Down To The Wire,” segment with Joe Cirincione and NPR’s Steve Inskeep. http://n.pr/1BIrLwm

Support for diplomacy - A new poll conducted by Washington Post-ABC News finds that nearly 60 percent of Americans support an agreement with Iran that restricts Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions. Full poll here. http://wapo.st/1xQAJN8

Risky business - “For four decades, American Presidents of both parties have recognized that it is unacceptable for Iran to acquire a nuclear bomb and that the only rational way to prevent this is to negotiate,” writes Steve Coll for The New Yorker.

--“One aim of Kerry’s dealmaking in Switzerland is to help stabilize the region by reducing the chance that Iran’s bomb program could set off a local atomic arms race. That is an objective worthy of considerable risk-taking.” http://nyr.kr/1Dd8Lvv

Rough road ahead - With or without an a framework agreement, Obama faces a rough fight with Congress, writes Indira Lakshmanan for Bloomberg. “Obama will have to make the case for what would be a crowning foreign policy achievement to a public that distrusts Iran’s regime, yet doesn’t want an unresolved nuclear crisis to spark a nuclear arms race, or even a war, in the Middle East.” Full story here. http://bloom.bg/1IMKblv

Good deal - “A good deal will limit Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity, downgrade its plutonium production facility and impose a rigorous inspection regime” of Iran’s nuclear activity. As rumors swirl about the possibility of reaching a deal today, it is encouraging that the emerging details indicate that these key elements to preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon will be addressed. Full column by Minnesota State legislators Phyllis Kahn and Sandy Pappas in the Star Tribune here. http://strib.mn/1BMcThz

Ahead of schedule - “The Air Force has eliminated 104 deactivated intercontinental ballistic missiles under budget and ahead of schedule,” reports Jenn Rowell for the Great Falls Tribune. Under the New START treaty with Russia “those empty silos counted as nondeployed missile launchers” and had to be eliminated by February 2018. Full story here. http://gftrib.com/1C2fF0Z

Tweet - @reinventorsnet: It is 2045 & the last nuclear weapon is dismantled. How did we get here? 2day @ 11PT @SkollGlobal @CarnegieCorp http://shar.es/1gq1Y5

Quick hits:

--“How France Became an Iran Hawk,” by Joseph Bahout and Benjamin Haddad in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1BJNsNs

--“Iran Talks Shed Light On Nuclear Tensions Between India, Pakistan.” http://n.pr/1HhnYLc

--“The Limits of U.S. Missile Defense,” by Amb. Steve Pifer in The National interest. http://bit.ly/1HhpxZJ

--“Iran’s Supreme Leader Holds Key to Nuclear Deal,” by Jay Solomon and Laurence Norman for The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1IiE5sf

--“In judging Iranian deal, the devil is not in the details,” by Chemi Shalev in . http://bit.ly/19FfgLb

Events:

--“Deal or no deal? Negotiating with Iran.” Featuring Robert Einhorn, Senior Fellow, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative of Brookings, William Galston, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies of Brookings and Suzanne Maloney, Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy of Brookings. April 1 from 10:00AM – 11:30 AM. Located at The Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC 2003. http://brook.gs/1x8WE1a

--“Paths to Disarmament: The NPT and the Humanitarian Initiative.” Featuring John Loretz, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, and Martin Fleck, Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR). April 2 from 8:00-9:00 PM EST. Online webinar sponsored by PSR. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1Oek3Ur

--“Framework for a Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement with Iran.” Featuring Clifford Kupchan, Eurasia Group; Kelsey Davenport, Arms Control Association; and John Limbert, U.S. Naval Academy. April 3 at 10:00 AM. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1ErWdBX

--“The Fate of South Africa’s Nuclear Material.” Featuring Douglas Birch, R. Jeffrey Smith, Matthew Bunn, Thomas Wheeler and Togzhan Kassenova. April 6 from 9:00 AM – 11:00 AM EST. Hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Located at 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC. Register online. http://ceip.org/1yjihqR

--Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, hearing on the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) budget. With Frank Klotz, Administrator, NNSA; and four other witnesses. April 15 at 2:30 PM. Located at 222 Russell Senate Office Building, Washington Dc. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1FLDB07

--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which includes the nuclear weapons and nonproliferation programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. April 29 at 10:00 AM. Located at 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://armedservices.house.gov/