Pakistan’s PM, Politics, and Prospects

On the radar: Nawaz Sharif; Dealing with loose nukes; More missile launches; Obama’s opportunities for reductions; New pork for New York; Polling proliferation; and Nuke bunker turned into bat cave.

May 20, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Prospects for Pakistan - What should be expected of two-time former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif after his decisive victory in Pakistan’s parliamentary elections? “The one foreign policy initiative Nawaz was most noted for during his most recent term as prime minister was his outreach to India...If this is indeed what he has in mind, he will certainly need to tread carefully. A really serious effort would not only risk running him afoul of the army, it would outrage Pakistani religious parties...which would look askance at any attempt to fundamentally improve relations on anything less than maximalist Pakistani terms,” writes John R. Schmidt in The National Interest.

--Schmidt goes through the patronage and power struggles of Sharif’s previous terms and provides context for the coming years. Bottom line: “Given his track record, Nawaz will need to exercise considerably greater care in dealing with the army on [relations with India] than he has demonstrated in the past. Unfortunately, there is no evidence yet that he is capable of doing so.” Full post here. http://bit.ly/116P28L

Perennial question - How could the U.S. respond if either Pakistan or North Korea lost control of their nuclear weapons or fissile material? “Outside intervention in these circumstances is a long shot, at best,” said Brian Jenkins of RAND in a presentation last week. While military intervention shouldn’t be ruled out, Jenkins suggested exploring options short of putting boots on the ground.

--Jenkins “noted that during the Cold War, Russia and US agreed on hotlines and other stability measures that could be used in the event that rogue elements were to gain control of nuclear arms...It may be appropriate to start revisiting some of those things in what would be a more complex situation.” Story by Elaine Grossman for Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/13FJgQE

Pyongyang’s pyrotechnics - North Korea launched two short-range missiles into the sea off the country’s east coast on Monday. These were the fifth and sixth missiles fired in the last three days as part of military exercises. Chookyung Kim has the story at Reuters. http://owl.li/lcJVR

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Antiquated arsenal - The number of nuclear weapons the U.S. actually needs to “deter an enemy from attacking the U.S. with or without nuclear weapons is very, very low. To be on the safe side, [the U.S.] might want a couple of hundred...The idea that we need thousands of nuclear weapons…is an outmoded, irrational, expensive legacy of the Cold War,” said Joe Cirincione in an interview with IPS.

--President Obama has an opportunity to reduce the size of U.S. nuclear force - a goal “which started with President John F. Kennedy’s efforts in the 1960s and was accelerated by President Ronald Reagan’s efforts in the 1980s...If [the president] starts now, he can get the job done. He can change U.S. nuclear policy to put it irreversibly on a path to fewer nuclear weapons, and eventually (eliminate) this threat from the face of the earth,” said Cirincione. George Gao has the full story here. http://owl.li/lcHdA

Ohio & Virginia - “The Navy must have a multiyear contracting arrangement involving both the Virginia-class submarine and Ohio-class replacement submarine programs in order to achieve significant cost savings across both ship classes, particularly if the service expects to hit a $4.9-billion target for the Ohio replacement effort, a service official told Inside the Navy last week,” reports Inside Defense. (paywall) http://bit.ly/10IDsot

Tweet - @AliVaez: Iran electoral watchdog hints at Rafsanjani rejection http://t.co/pyD6ojI57P

East Coast site - Sen. Charles Schumer is lobbying the Pentagon for a missile defense site in his district in the hopes that jobs created by the site will win him votes. His constituents should know that these jobs “are unlikely to materialize anytime soon” if at all, and that their tax dollars would be better spent on capabilities that are actually effective and meet current and future threats, writes John Isaacs for The Journal News.

--The site will not be chosen until 2016 at the earliest. Two officials studies have shown “little evidence that the current missile defense system would protect the United States.” The big takeaway: “U.S. interests would be better served if our elected officials started focusing on defense programs that work and that don’t squander taxpayers billions of dollars,” writes Isaacs. Op-ed here. http://owl.li/lcLWA

Tweet - @BrookingsFP: Today is the launch of #IranatSaban, a new #Iran-focused blog by @BrookingsFP, led by @maloneysuzanne. http://owl.li/lczXX

Nuclear attitudes - Two polls taken this year show that “nearly two-thirds of South Koreans” are in support of “nuclear weapons, preferably under their own control.” This, however, “is mostly an emotional, knee-jerk response to the frustration of the North Korean nuclear threat. People tend to say yes, they want nuclear weapons, but not if they think through the costs and consequences” said Daniel Pinkston, an analyst at the International Crisis Group.” Barbara Demick at the Los Angeles Times has the story. http://owl.li/lcU0i

Events:

--House Foreign Affairs Committee, markup of the Nuclear Iran Prevention Act of 2013, H.R. 850. May 22, time TBD. 2172 Rayburn House Office Building. Webcast here. http://owl.li/l3A4S

--House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, markup of its portion of the defense authorization bill, H.R. 1960, which includes the nuclear weapons programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. May 22, 10:30 am. 2212 Rayburn House Office Building. Webcast here. http://owl.li/lcEXg

--”Options for Reducing Nuclear Arms,” Bruce Blair, Keith Payne, and Steven Pifer. Moderated by Michael O’Hanlon. May 22, 10:00-11:30am @ Brookings. Details here. http://owl.li/l3xE2

--Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and NATO officials meet with Russian officials to discuss missile defense. Moscow. May 23-24.

--"Nuclear Terrorism: What’s at Stake?" Jay Cohen, David Waller, Stephen Flynn, Stanton Sloane. May 29 8:00-9:30 am. American Security Project. 1100 New York Ave, NW, Seventh Floor, West Tower. Details here. http://owl.li/lcEuT

--”The Kaleidoscope Turns Again in a Crisis-Challenged Iran,” Yasmin Alem and Suzanne Maloney, moderated by Barbara Slavin. May 30, 12:00-1:30 pm @ The Atlantic Council. Details here. http://owl.li/l8cYq

Dessert:

Bat Bunker No. 1 - A former nuclear weapons storage bunker in Maine was used last winter as a cave for hibernating bats. Bat populations across North America are being decimated by a communicable disease that disrupts their hibernation. Researchers, seeking to save bats by providing an artificial habitat that can be sanitized, put 30 bats in the bunker to observe if they survived the winter.

--“Some people thought that it was kind of a crazy idea, but we’re kind of desperate right now, and crazy ideas can be entertained. It had some positive results, and it may just have to be used in the future,” said John DePue, a biologist with the Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife.

--”Bats will not be transported this winter to Maine’s Bat Bunker No. 1. Instead, Agius is planning to try to naturally attract migrating bats to the bunker by broadcasting swarming calls that bats use to congregate for hibernation from solar-powered high-frequency speakers.” Aislinn Sarnacki of The Bangor Daily News has the story. http://bit.ly/Z7S5TO