Playing Domestic Politics in Nuclear Negotiations

May 30, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Delicate consensus - “International negotiations typically play out as ‘two level games,’ with leaders carefully eyeing their domestic political calculations even as they bargain with their foreign counterparts,” write Farzan Sabat and Aaron Stein in The Washington Post. “The EU3+3 talks with Iran over its nuclear program are no different. U.S. domestic constraints are well understood, but what about Iran’s?”

--“Currently, in a rare convergence, almost all of Iran’s major political currents – for the time being – support the negotiations. Still, President Hassan Rouhani faces very real domestic political constraints that could prove fatal to the deal if the United States doesn’t understand them appropriately. While the United States will not agree to a bad deal, it should take advantage of Iran’s delicate and rare consensus and come to an agreement that limits Iran’s access to fissile material and imposes proper verification measures to ensure the non-diversion of fissile material for non-peaceful uses.”

--“It is imperative for U.S. demands to remain consistent with the JPOA and remain clearly in line with the Obama Administration’s overarching nonproliferation goals. And to ensure that U.S. hawks don’t derail the talks via the introduction of tangential issues, which could fracture internal Iranian support for the negotiations, the administration could clearly explain why it is imperative to remain focused on the nuclear issue. Inside Iran, the consequences of failure would certainly discredit Rouhani’s foreign policy and empower his most hawkish critics. While both sides are sure to refrain from agreeing to what they see as a bad deal, both still share an incentive to reach an agreement.” Full article here. http://wapo.st/1nKuMcj

Spoiler alert - “Those who want permanent pariahdom for Iran and thus oppose any agreement with the government in Tehran keep looking for ways to use the U.S. Congress to sabotage the deal that has been under negotiation in Vienna and would restrict Iran's nuclear program,” writes Paul Pillar for The National Interest. “A recent previous effort by the saboteurs was a bill that would have violated the preliminary agreement that was reached with Iran last November by imposing still more sanctions on Iran. That effort was beaten back, partly with an explicit veto threat by the president. Even more recently Senator Bob Corker, the ranking Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, introduced an amendment that would have Congress holding a ‘vote of disapproval’ within days after the negotiators reach agreement.”

--“If something like Corker's proposal were adopted, the vote of disapproval would be exactly that, but based on the politics of the issue rather than on the merits of the agreement. Such a snap vote would allow little time for weighing the merits of the deal, or for alternatives to the agreement to be considered… As with any negotiated agreement, the deal will be a compromise and not perfect and it thus will always be easy to find specific provisions to be grounds for disapproval, without members being held accountable for considering the entire deal against the alternatives.”

--“The terms of an Iranian nuclear agreement are still under negotiation, but probably the implementation of each side's obligations will be phased and gradual. It would be sensible, as well as politically realistic, for Congress's necessary involvement to be phased in gradually as well, and certainly not to take the form of quickie votes. Probably the initial phases of sanctions relief would rely on executive action. Only later, after implementation of the agreement has become a going concern and both sides have had a chance to demonstrate their seriousness about compliance with the agreement, will Congress have to play its role with legislation.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1nAq3fG

Conversion facility startup - “Iran is planning to start up a plant in June that will convert low-enriched uranium gas into an oxide form less suitable for making nuclear bombs, as required by a landmark deal with world powers,” reports Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. “Iran is meeting all the other requirements of the deal that was designed to buy time for talks on a final settlement of the decade-old dispute over Tehran's nuclear program, a U.N. watchdog report showed last week… The IAEA report said Iran had transferred 4.3 tonnes of low-grade uranium gas to the Isfahan site from its Natanz enrichment plant, in a possible sign that it was preparing to start conversion into oxide powder in the near future.” Full report here. http://reut.rs/1nAmd6p

What Americans want - “‘You are the first class to graduate since 9/11 who may not be sent into combat in Iraq or Afghanistan,’ President Barack Obama told cheering cadets at West Point this week. He reminded them that over the past 6 years he has withdrawn the more than 100,000 troops that were in Iraq when he took office. And he announced he would withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan by the end of 2016.” While panned as weak on national security by critics, “the end of these wars could not come soon enough for most Americans. Gallup reported in February that more Americans now view the war in Afghanistan as a mistake. It’s a remarkable erosion of support from 2002 when 93 percent of Americans supported the war, and even from 2011 when 58 percent still supported it. That number has now dropped to only 48 percent in support.”

--“What about new wars? Again the public is solidly against. Last year, polls showed Americans overwhelmingly (82 percent) in favor of the agreement not to intervene militarily and have Syria turn its chemical weapons over to international inspectors… on the critical issue of Iran, Obama’s long efforts to secure a comprehensive agreement that prevents Iran from getting a nuclear weapon has won broad backing from the public. ‘At the beginning of my presidency, we built a coalition that imposed sanctions on the Iranian economy, while extending the hand of diplomacy to the Iranian government,’ Obama said, ‘And now we have an opportunity to resolve our differences peacefully.’ That is what Americans want. A recent poll shows 52 percent of the public opposed to military strikes on Iran with only 27 percent in favor. When pollsters read them the best arguments from both sides, the public swings even more heavily against war, 70 percent to 22 percent.”

--“‘For the first time in a decade, we have a very real chance of achieving a breakthrough agreement,’ said Obama, ‘one that is more effective and durable than what we could have achieved through the use of force… This is American leadership. This is American strength.’ The public seems to agree. Although it will never be reflected on the Sunday talk shows or the editorial pages of The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, when asked to choose between the policies of John McCain and John Bolton and those of Barack Obama, there is no question what Americans want. They want the plan from the man at West Point.” Read the full piece from Joe Cirincione for Defense One here. http://bit.ly/1nKnp4K

Tweet - @BulletinAtomic: Russia’s experts do not want to return to nuclear isolation because they believe it led to the 1986 Chernobyl disaster ow.ly/xr64p

Nuclear security needs strengthening - “Analysts warn that entrenched political obstacles may stand in the way of any new multilateral effort to curb nonmilitary uses of bomb-grade uranium,” reports Diane Barnes for Global Security Newswire. “World leaders have achieved a degree of success since 2010 in reducing the use of highly enriched uranium for civilian needs, such as fueling nuclear reactors and manufacturing medical isotopes, says a May analysis by Miles Pomper and Philippe Mauger of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. They argued, though, that dangers from the material persist. The authors said roughly 54 tons of highly enriched uranium is being used for peaceful purposes across 29 nations, and a U.N. estimate suggests a would-be nuclear terrorist may need to steal as little as 55 pounds to construct a bomb.”

--“Participants in the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague, Netherlands, issued a communique calling on countries to ‘minimize their stocks of HEU.’ Still, that March statement was nonbinding, and Pomper and Mauger argued that more substantial efforts have been hampered by the differing goals of individual governments. The fourth, and possibly final, Nuclear Security Summit is scheduled for 2016 in the United States.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1proaBE

Tweet - @globalzero: Nine more reasons why +16,000 #nuclear weapons are just accidents waiting to happen: @HISTORY http://owl.li/xpazl

Where poor performance leads to more responsibility - “The U.S. Air Force wants to raise the clout of its strike command as part of its response to a series of ethics lapses in the nuclear sector,” reports Rachel Oswald for Global Security Newswire. “The civilian and military leaders of the service have recommended to U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel that the position of head of Global Strike Command be upgraded to a four-star billet from its current three-star rank, according to a Wednesday Air Force news story. The proposal is to be further developed in the coming months and would require congressional authorization.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/1ktWWro

Force improvements - “In the months since the cheating investigation at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Air Force leaders have asked the nuclear community to offer suggestions for improvement. The Air Force is now implementing more of those suggestions,” writes Jenn Rowell in the Great Falls Tribune. “This week, Lt. Gen. Stephen Wilson, Air Force Global Strike Command briefed the nuclear force on the changes being implemented through the Force Improvement Program. AFGSC received more than 300 recommendations through the program and 98 percent were approved, according to AFGSC.”

--“Deborah Lee James, secretary of the Air Force, also recently recommended to Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel that the AFGSC commander position should be elevated to a four-star general rank from the current three-star rank,” a proposal which will require congressional approval. “The Air Force will also increase the service’s assistant chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration from a two-star to three-star position and increase nuclear manning levels… ‘This is our most critically important mission and these personnel actions show that ... we are not just increasing the rank within the organization, we are also increasing the overall manpower by more than 1,100 personnel to address shortfalls and offer our airmen a more stable work schedule and better quality of life,’” says Gen. Mark Welsh, chief of staff of the Air Force. Read the full article here. http://gftrib.com/1o61EdT

Tweet - @KelseyDav: Nice piece by @Nickolas_Roth on the 10th anniversary of the Global Threat Reduction Initiative: http://bit.ly/1nyrueB

North Korea sanctions - “The House Foreign Affairs Committee has passed a bill to toughen sanctions against North Korea and restrict its access to hard currency,” AP reports. “Both Republicans and Democrats backed the move on Thursday, saying they supported stronger action to combat Pyongyang's development of nuclear weapons and serious human rights abuses.” Full story here. http://abcn.ws/1jAvFOM

Domino effect - “A new nuclear test by North Korea could have a domino effect by providing its neighbors with a pretext to arm themselves with nuclear weapons, South Korean President Park Geun-hye said,” write Gerard Baker and Alastair Gale in The Wall Street Journal. “In a bleak assessment of the implications of North Korea following through on a recent threat to stage a fourth nuclear weapons test Ms. Park told The Wall Street Journal that Seoul continues to keep a door open to Pyongyang but that a new bomb test would have a ‘huge impact’ on the regional security landscape.” Full article here. http://on.wsj.com/1hiHzTk

Quick-hits:

--“South Korea Rebuts Report on Hosting U.S. Interceptor Battery” in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1oRjvGQ

-- “U.S. Air Force wants 4-star general to lead Louisiana nuclear missile command” by Paul Purpura for The Times-Picayune. http://bit.ly/1lXAB1G

--“The 21st Century Nuclear Arsenal” from the American Security Project. http://bit.ly/SY6ssj

-- “Trust, Not Tech, Big Problem Building Missile Defenses Vs. Iran, North Korea” by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. for Breaking Defense. http://bit.ly/1kcx9Du

Events:

--“U.S.-Iran Relations Past Present and Future.” Discussion with Hossein Mousavian and John Marks. June 3 at 9:30am at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St., NW, Floor 12. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1knlaU2

--“Chain Reaction 2014.” Ploughshares Fund Gala with Michael Douglas, Jeremy Ben-Ami and Trita Parsi. June 3 from 6:00 to 8:30 at The Open Square at Futures Without Violence, 100 Montgomery Street, The Presidio of San Francisco. Purchase tickets here. http://bit.ly/1nexkld

--“U.S. Missile Defense Developments: How Far? How Fast?” Discussion with Cristina Chaplain, Phil Coyle, Laura Grego, and James Miller; moderated by Steven Pifer. June 4 from 10:00-11:30am at the Brookings Institution, Saul/Zilkha Rooms, 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lUd81A

--“Israel, Saudi, and Iranian Responses in the Days After a Deal With Iran.” Discussion with Alireza Nader, Dalia Dassa Kaye, and Jeffrey Martini. Moderated by Lynne Davis. June 4 from 1:00 to 2:00 at 2200 Rayburn House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/RBn07W

--“Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: India, Pakistan, China and the Future of Deterrence Stability." Discussion with Vipin Narang and Peter Lavoy. June 4 from 3:00 to 4:30 at the Stimson Center, 1111 19th St., NW, Floor 12. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1h9mbzS

--“Nuclear Flashpoints: U.S.-Iran Tensions Over Terms and Timetables.” Discussion with Stephen Hadley, Jon Wolfsthal, Daryl Kimball and Robert Litwak. June 10 from 9:30 to 11:00 at the Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, floor 6. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1tqM3Hk

Dessert:

The Nucleaire Matchmaker- “A Tennessee man who appeared on ‘The Millionaire Matchmaker’ is accused of trying to extort $2.5 million from a nuclear weapons plant in exchange for 1,200 slides that he allegedly claimed would be damaging if released publicly,” reports Travis Loller for AP. “According to an affidavit filed in federal court last week, Adam Winters sent an email on May 8 to Babcock and Wilcox, the contractors operating the Y-12 National Security Complex in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The email also was sent to the FBI's Knoxville office and to Vice President Joe Biden, the affidavit said.”

--“The email states that Winters has slides that contain ‘evidence from testing the bombs, to documentation on how much radiation was used on animals and contamination of the plants,’ according to the affidavit. The Knoxville News Sentinel reported that Winters' family in 1993 sought money from the government and the news media for the same slides, which were accidentally left in an old storage cabinet sold at auction. The U.S. Department of Energy refused to pay for the slides, some of which show government research on the effects of radiation on animals.” Although Winters said he was a millionaire entrepreneur on the February 6 episode "The Beverly Hillbilly," the court found that “Winters didn't have funds to retain a private attorney and appointed a federal public defender for him.” Get the full story here. http://abcn.ws/1hiOmwn