Shifts in Tehran Improving Outlook for Nuclear Talks

On the radar: Shifting the nuclear file; Not friends, but also not enemies; P5+1 talks moving; Potential militant responses in Iraq; Rodman; and Diplomacy in ≤140 characters.

September 6, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Shift - New Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that nuclear negotiations will be conducted by the Foreign Ministry under his administration. Until now, “Iran’s nuclear policies and negotiations have been formulated and controlled by the country’s conservative Supreme National Security Council.” According to an Iranian diplomat, the shift indicates “Rouhani is giving the power to the real experts,” and that Tehran “ is ready for a big deal.”

--The move was supported by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who “has the last word in all state matters...In a speech Thursday, Mr. Khamenei endorsed the new government as one with ‘fresh blood’ and ‘comprised of experts’ that could lead Iran toward achieving its goals. ‘Under the current circumstances everyone must cooperate with the new government and I too will support it,’” said Khamenei. Farnaz Fassihi at The Wall Street Journal has the full story. http://ow.ly/oD2iQ

Interpretation - The nuclear policy takeover "reinforces the message of Rouhani during the election that Iran is looking to turn around its relations with the world and that he appreciates that the only viable mechanism for doing that is re-engaging in the nuclear talks in a very different way than it has in the past eight years," said Suzanne Maloney of Brookings to The LA Times. http://abcn.ws/1elORAS

An important yet fractured relationship - U.S.-Russian relations are in a bad place, after Vladimir Putin’s persistent snubbing of US outreach and the Snowden affair. But the relationship still matters. “What needs to happen now is that the U.S. and Russia settle into a nice, stable, transactional relationship. Both Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin seem to realize this -- but they’re having trouble getting there,” writes Bloomberg in an editorial.

--Some analysts have suggested that Russia has become irrelevant to the U.S. “One reason to keep talking is that Russia still has about 4,500 nuclear warheads, more than 1,000 of them deployed...This isn’t the Cold War, but the U.S. and Russia still need a functioning relationship to make sure that surprises (such as the joint U.S.-Israel missile test this week) don’t take on a life of their own.” http://bloom.bg/1elUW0a

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Talks moving - "Our interest is to remove any ambiguity regarding our country's nuclear programme…I told Mrs. Ashton that if there is a political will to resolve this matter, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear rights, we are equally ready to move forward," said Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif after a phone call with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Aston. Siavosh Ghazi reports for AFP. http://bit.ly/15J9qzq

Hardliners moving - The U.S. has intercepted a message from the leader of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ Qods Force, Qasem Soleimani, ordering militants in Iraq to attack American interests in Baghdad in the event of a strike on Syria. Julian Barnes and Adam Entous of The Wall Street Journal have the story. http://on.wsj.com/1554CZx

EU sanctions ruling - The European Court of Justice has ruled that there is “insufficient evidence” tying Iranian businesses to Tehran’s nuclear proliferation efforts. The EU will now have to unfreeze the assets of seven Iranian banks and other businesses as a result of the ruling. BBC has the story. http://ow.ly/oD0FV

Twitter diplomacy - One of Twitter’s most recent subscribers, foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, used his new account to “reach out to the West...plunging headfirst into public diplomacy,” by “extending greetings for the Jewish New Year, Rosh Hashanah.” When the sincerity of the message was questioned, Zarif insisted “the man who” denied the Holocaust “is now gone,” drawing a distinction between Iran’s new leadership and the Ahmadinejad era. Robert Mackey The New York Times has the full story. http://ow.ly/oD5Zi

Tweet - @Cirincione: I've been assured by people who know better than me that @HassanRouhani & @JZarif accounts real & legit. Fascinating twitter diplomacy.

Events:

--”Prospects for a Diplomatic Solution with Iran,” Ray Takeyh, Joel Rubin, and Greg Thielmann. September 10, 12:30-2:00 PM @ The American Security Project. Details here. http://ow.ly/ow7H1

--”U.S.-Iran Reconciliation Under President Rouhani?” Haleh Esfandiari, Robert Einhorn, Kenneth Katzman. Moderated by Barbara Slavin. September 12, 9:30 AM @ the Atlantic Council. Details here. http://ow.ly/ow8uO

Dessert:

Rodman - “[Dennis] Rodman, of course, is not qualified to carry out negotiations with North Korea on sensitive political issues. Nor does the North Korean leadership see him as a credible conveyor of official message to Washington. Kim's unconventional courting of Rodman is about equivalent to his enjoyment of Disney characters and scantily clad women on stage. It's all jolly and trite pleasure,” writes Sung-yoon Lee for CNN. Article title: “Rodman just a toy for N. Korea's Kim” http://bit.ly/1dZe2vg