Spending Fight Brewing on Controversial Missile Defense Idea

On the radar: Toehold for a $25 billion program; Nukes swallowing UK military budgets; Nuke pressure on shipbuilding; North Korea finishing reactor; Russia has 4,500 warheads; Japan increasing production of weapons-usable plutonium; and What if it was a dirty bomb?

May 2, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Missile defense politics - House Republicans are renewing a fight over a controversial East Coast missile defense site, sending a letter this week to Rep. Bill Young (R-FL), Chairman of the defense appropriations subcommittee, urging him to stuff $250 million into the FY14 appropriations bill for funding to develop and build the site. Jeremy Herb previews “one of the most contentious political battles in this year’s defense authorization bill” for The Hill. http://bit.ly/10626vS

The last time we had this fight - “East Coast Missile Defense? Just Say No, Again” by Tom Collina for Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/Tw3bg3

--Fiscal discipline reminder: An East Coast missile defense setup is estimated to cost up to $25 billion. The U.S. has already blew $30 billion on the troubled, unproven missile defense site on the West Coast.

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Budgeting for Vengeance - The United Kingdom is weighing a tough decision of whether to buy a new class of nuclear-armed submarines or use the funds to maintain its conventional armed forces. “whatever choice London makes will have bearing on U.S. military operations going forward, both nuclear and conventional,” writes Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire.

--Over the next decade, the UK plans to spend $253 billion on purchasing new armaments - $56.6 of it would go to submarine programs with the bulk being the Vanguard submarine replacement program. Full story here. http://bit.ly/Zptrcj

Ships vs boomers - Shrinking defense budgets are resulting in some tough choices for the military like: does the US need a 300-ship Navy or 12 replacement strategic submarines? Because it can’t afford both, notes Walter Pincus.

--“If we buy the [12 replacement] SSBNs within existing funds, we will not reach 300 ships...At these numbers, our global presence will be reduced such that we’ll only be able to visit some areas of the world episodically,” said Vice Adm. William Burke, deputy chief of Naval Operations Warfare Systems in recent remarks.

--One possible solution - the Navy is waiting on the administration to release its nuclear weapons policy guidance. This report “could solve the Navy’s dilemma by reducing the number of strategic subs the country needs,” writes Pincus in The Washington Post. Full story here. http://owl.li/kDFEM

North Korea’s new reactor - New satellite imagery analysis shows that North Korea is nearing completion of an experimental light water reactor (ELWR). If brought into operation, the reactor would be primarily for civilian energy purposes.

--It is unclear if the North has mastered the ability to manufacture fuel assemblies for reactors. The North also “lacks experience in designing, engineering, manufacturing and operating light water reactors,” raising concern about its ability to operate the reactor safely. Jeffrey Lewis and Nick Hansen have the analysis at 38 North . http://bit.ly/18uvm3a

Russian nuclear notebook - “Russia has a stockpile of approximately 4,500 nuclear warheads, of which roughly 1,800 strategic warheads are deployed on missiles and at bomber bases. Another 700 strategic warheads are in storage, along with 2,000 nonstrategic warheads. In addition to the military stockpile for operational forces, a large number - we estimate 4,000 - of retired but still largely intact warheads await dismantlement,” write Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris.

--Full report: ”Russian Nuclear Forces, 2013” by Kristensen and Norris for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. May, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/13Paumx

Report - “Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues” by Amy Woolf for the Congressional Research Service. (pdf) http://bit.ly/N2vy4l

Tweet - @BulletinAtomic: 3 articles on crowd-sourcing verification of arms control treaties: http://t.co/bkvw1LQ8Me http://t.co/jgSQ9Xv9nh http://t.co/HilMpO5QLv

Next steps toward deeper cuts - “With the 2012 election behind him, it is time for Obama to jump-start action toward significantly deeper U.S. and Russian nuclear reductions,” writes Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association. He suggests some next steps: finalize the Nuclear Posture Review implementation study, adopt a “nuclear deterrence only strategy” and remove “a significant number of nuclear weapons from prompt-launch status.”

--The president should also announce “he is prepared to begin formal talks on a follow-on agreement” to New START when he meets with Putin in June. Obama should also announce that the U.S. will follow Russia’s lead and cut deployments below New START levels as negotiations are conducted, writes Kimball. Full editorial here. http://owl.li/kDJXf

Japan’s plutonium stockpile - Japan is preparing to start a plutonium reprocessing plant - over the objections of the Obama administration - that could annually produce 9 tons of weapons-usable plutonium. That’s enough for 2,000 bombs. Japanese officials said the plutonium would be used strictly for civilian power generation. Jay Solomon and Miho Inada have the story for The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/10uKtod

Tweet - @STPP_Program: @ManagingtheAtom Seeks Research Assistant #nuclear http://bit.ly/10uCpE1

Syria - “Thick Red Line: No, we don't have enough evidence that Syria has used chemical weapons.” By Jeffrey Lewis at Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1313xPt

Dirty bomb - The recent Boston bombing was horrific, but what if a “dirty bomb” had been used? George Moore explores the threat at Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

--While immediate physical injuries would have likely been similar if a dirty bomb were used in Boston, a radiological attack could have resulted in more serious long-term physical and psychological effects. Hospitals would have to deal with the effects of radiation exposure, first responders could be put in danger and “contaminated materials would have to be removed and treated as radioactive waste at great cost,” writes Moore. Full story here. http://owl.li/kDMtY

Negotiating with the Hermit Kingdom - Re-engaging North Korea diplomatically is the most prudent path forward. Yet DPRK has historically been a difficult negotiating partner. Joel Wit and Jenny Town offer some negotiating “‘do’s and don’ts’ learned over decades of negotiating with the North.”

--Tips: (1) Don’t treat them like crazy robots; (2) personal relationships matter; (3) negotiations often don’t happen at the negotiating table; (4) bring along a scout; and (5) get everything written down in black and white. Details on these tips here. owl.li/kDVey

Events:

--"Reducing Global Weapons Dangers: Bolstering the NPT and Building the New ATT Regime," (Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting). Ellen Tauscher and six other speakers. May 6 9:00-1:30am @ Carnegie. Details Here. http://owl.li/kwU8t

--Senate floor vote on the nomination of Ernie Moniz to be Energy Secretary. Week of May 6. Broadcast and webcast on C-SPAN2 here. http://owl.li/kwUJ7

--”Sustaining the Nuclear Enterprise,” breakfast speech from Don Cook, NNSA’s Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs. May 7th from 8:00-9:00am @ the Capitol Hill Club. RSVP and details here. http://conta.cc/162LaOe

--Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the Air Force Budget with Air Force Secretary Michael Donley and Air Force Chief of Staff Ge. Mark Welsh. May 7, 9:30am. Info on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/100okE1

--"Plutopia: Nuclear Families, Atomic Cities, and the Great Soviet and American Plutonium Disasters." Kate Brown. May 8, 4:00-5:30pm @ Wilson Center, sixth floor, Reagan Building. Details here. http:/ http://owl.li/kDW47