Iran Sanctions and Negotiations at a Crossroads

On the radar: House pushing more sanctions, right as diplomatic window opens; Fail less before we buy; Close calls; Blasting nuclear waste into the sun; and nuclear war means NOFUN.

August 1, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

The pressure push - Yesterday, the House approved legislation that tightens sanctions on the Iranian economy - particularly its energy sector. The bill, if enacted, would attempt to further curtail Iran’s oil exports and deny Iran access to foreign currency. Timothy Gardner at Reuters has the full story. http://ow.ly/nxdyD

Undercutting negotiations - New sanctions targeting Iran’s economy could prove detrimental to achieving U.S. policy goals with regard to Iran’s nuclear program. The legislation “brushes aside the Obama administration’s concern about undercutting the Islamic Republic’s incoming president ahead of new nuclear negotiations...If Rouhani is serious about compromise, setting new sanctions in advance of negotiations could make it harder for him and play into the hands of Tehran hard-liners,” writes the Associated Press. http://ow.ly/nxgIn

Divided on missile defense - Congress is divided on the issue of missile defense - the House “wants to buy a new missile that has failed a recent test and commit to building an East Coast missile defense site.” Key Senate Democrats, however, oppose both actions citing repeated test failures and tightening defense budgets as reasons to abstain until tests offer more positive results.

--“Before we go forward on missile defense we need a successful test, period. Before we expand the missile defense layout to include the East Coast, we need a pretty fulsome debate after a successful test,” said Senator Richard Durbin (D-IL), Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense. Frank Oliveri at Roll Call has the story. http://ow.ly/nxjyB

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Overpressured - Proponents of a recently passed Iran Sanctions bill in the house “say they are acting in the name of precluding an Iranian nuclear weapon. In fact they are acting in the opposite direction, by significantly damaging the prospects of negotiating a nuclear agreement with Iran—an agreement that would be by far the most assured way of precluding an Iranian nuclear weapon,” writes Paul Pillar.

--”This measure in the House will be further evidence to Tehran that the United States does not want an agreement and instead only wants to punish Iranians and to change their regime.” Full post in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/16mfB0b

See also - “The making of an Iraq sequel with Iran” by Mark Jansson of the Federation of American Scientists in The Hill. http://bit.ly/135fa6w

Tweet - @ReutersIran: Russia says new Iran sanctions will not end nuclear dispute. reut.rs/15eA0Wp

CRS report - “Iran Sanctions” by Kenneth Katzman of the Congressional Research Service. July 26, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/135fa6w

Book - “Nuclear Weapons Security Crises: What Does History Teach?” Henry Sokolski and Bruno Tertrais, Eds. from U.S. Army War College Press.

--“This work addresses the possibility of nuclear weapons and materials falling into the hands of unauthorized actors during political crises. It uses specific historical case studies as the basis from which to draw lessons for the future.” Contributions from Mark Stokes, Nikolai Sokov, Feroz Hassan Kahn, Reid Pauly and Scott Sagan, Peter Feaver, Gergory Giles and Matt Bunn. (pdf) http://bit.ly/16IHopD

Report - “Critical Capability” by David Albright and Christina Walrond of ISIS. Topline: “Priority is limiting the number and type of centrifuges at Natanz, Fordow, and any other centrifuge site Iran may now be constructing.” (pdf) http://bit.ly/16aKbIq

Point - “What Ash Carter Gets Wrong about Nuclear Weapons Spending” by Kingston Reif at Defense One. http://bit.ly/13DGbgd

Counterpoint - “Ash Carter Got it Right in Aspen, Top DOD Nuclear Weapons Official Responds” by Madelyn Creedon in Defense One. http://bit.ly/13DGfMZ

Tweet - @NTI_WMD: George P. Shultz ponders how to leave a better world for the next gen. One way: Eliminate nuclear threats. http://t.co/aszUtpVB0o

Speed read -

--“Pentagon, Lawmakers Deal Blows to Navy Fast-Strike Missile Effort,” by Elaine Grossman at Global Security Newswire. http://ow.ly/nxmJw

Events:

--Former basketball star Dennis Rodman returns to North Korea, August 1.

--Hassan Rouhani is inaugurated as president of Iran, August 3. Webcast on Iranian Press TV. http://ow.ly/nxd6Y

--50th anniversary of the signing of the Limited Test Ban Treaty, August 5.

Dessert:

Solar garbage bin - Blasting nuclear waste into the sun is feasible, but is it prudent? The “benefits fall far short of the risk involved,” writes Bjorn Carey of Popular Science. The effort would come with a high price tag and even higher risk.

--”It’s a bummer when a satellite ends up underwater, but it’s an entirely different story if that rocket is packing a few hundred pounds of uranium. And if the uranium caught fire, it could stay airborne and circulate for months, dusting the globe with radioactive ash,” writes Carey. Full story here. http://ow.ly/nxqYy

Addressing armageddon - 33 million casualties. “Half a million people heading for the hills of Wales to escape bombings...Violent anti-war protests convulsing London and military bases in Scotland.” This eerie scenario codenamed Wintex-Cimex 83 was drawn up by top British wargamers in 1983.

--As part of the exercise, “senior civil servants drafted a message they envisioned the [Queen] might have to deliver on the eve of an all-out nuclear war with Russia.” The speech was declassified Thursday by the National Archives. http://ow.ly/nxmBU

Speech - Full text of the Queen’s declassified speech here at Buzzfeed. http://ow.ly/nxomi