The Navy’s Nuclear Budget Gimmick

On the radar: Offloading nuclear budget pressure; Test Iran’s seriousness in Vienna; Ignatius talks with Rouhani; Can Rouhani and Obama deliver; and NNSA really wants UPF, all $6-$11 billion of it.

September 26, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Navy wants a bailout - Earlier this month, the Navy asked Congress to create a budget loophole big enough to sail a fleet of 12 ballistic missile submarines through - a $4 billion annual supplemental that would allow the Navy to push the subs off its budget rolls. “The Pentagon faces tough budget choices in a constrained fiscal environment. An end run around those budget choices by creating a special fund [for nuclear subs] obscures the hard choices that need to be made between nuclear weapons and other defense programs in a time of budget austerity,” writes Kingston Reif of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

--The Navy fears that the high costs of rebuilding a Cold War sub fleet could force the Navy to buy fewer modern ships for its surface fleet. Instead of allowing subs to take from other Navy priorities (carriers, destroyers, attack subs, etc.) the Navy is, in effect, asking Congress to absorb the subs’ nuclear budget and cut from other parts of the military - like the Army and Air Force.

--“The enormous cost to recapitalize America’s fleet of ballistic missile submarines should not be swept under the rug by a budget sleight-of-hand. Instead the program should be forced to compete with everything else in the Navy and larger Pentagon budget on the basis of common criteria such as need, affordability, and cost-effectiveness. US national security and taxpayers will be better off for it,” writes Reif. Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1as13fZ

Tweet - @defenseone: The U.S. Should Cut Its Nuclear Arsenal Before Sequester Does, by @OswaldRachel via @NTI_GSN http://bit.ly/1b9pnEp

The Vienna test - If Iran is serious about wanting a nuclear deal, President Rouhani is in prime position to achieve it. To demonstrate that seriousness, writes Bennett Ramberg, Iran should fully cooperate with the IAEA beginning at its meeting in Vienna tomorrow.

--”Iran informed the IAEA earlier this month that it is prepared to cooperate in ‘mutual confidence-building and constructive interaction’ in order to ‘put an end to Iran's nuclear dossier.’ On Friday, it will have the opportunity to do just that by agreeing to the structured approach the agency proposes. Should Tehran waiver or fail to cooperate, it will have to bear the consequences.” Full story at Reuters. http://yhoo.it/185HgCM

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NNSA responds to POGO - A new report from POGO projected that the proposed Uranium Processing Facility could cost up to $11.6 billion, even while it’s unclear if a building of the UPF’s size is necessary to help maintain the nuclear arsenal.

--NNSA, the agency attempting to manage the project, maintains that the building will cost half that and is absolutely necessary. Frank Munger at The Knoxville News Sentinel has NNSA’s response. http://bit.ly/1freh35

Bold headline - “The Nuclear Question Likely to be Key Issue in Iran-U.S. Talks” reports the LA Times. http://lat.ms/16CkX40

Ignatius’ take - David Ignatius of The Washington Post had a one-on-one interview with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Ignatius hints that Rouhani sees room for a nuclear deal within 3-6 months, but is cautious not to let his statements complicate negotiations.

--While Rouhani did not detail what limits Iran would accept on its enrichment program, Ignatius notes, “Rouhani said he was prepared to offer extensive “transparency” measures to reassure the West that Iran doesn’t intend to build a bomb. He likened these measures to what Iran allowed from 2003 to 2005, when he was the country’s chief negotiator, including acceptance of intrusive ‘additional protocols’ from the International Atomic Energy Agency, as well as inspections to assess what the IAEA calls possible military dimensions.” Full story here. http://wapo.st/1eK3nUJ

Can they deliver? - Both Iran and the US have strong domestic constituencies that are openly hostile to any feasible deal that would resolve the nuclear impasse. Fareed Zakaria describes the problem and notes, “The reality is that it remains unclear whether Iran can say yes to a nuclear deal — and equally unclear whether the United States could. Rouhani and Obama are probably each looking at the other and thinking the same thing: Can he deliver?” From The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/15WcQDF

Quote - “Shaking hands with Obama would have won Rouhani huge points with the Iranian public, but it would have caused Iran’s hard-liners a conniption,” said Karim Sadjadpour to The New York Times. Read the full story about Rouhani’s attempt to manage his hardliners back home. http://nyti.ms/19Culrr

Tweet - @BulletinAtomic: The arsenals of nuclear weapon states needn't be opaque-Transparency is in the interest of states w/ or w/out #nukes http://t.co/vmwX82VvIL

Speed reads:

--”U.S. Navy Successfully Test Launches Trident Missiles” from Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1b9rWqd

--”North Korea’s nuclear program may now be self-sufficient. Why that’s scary.” by Max Fisher of The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/19JucRF

--”RIP, Megatons for Megawatts” by Denver Nicks in TIME. http://ti.me/18ZgmcM

Events:

--Iran and the IAEA resume talks on Iran’s nuclear program. September 27.

--”The U.S.-Russia Relationship: Transcending Mutual Deterrence.” Gary Samore, William Tobey, and Pavel Zolotarev. Moderated by Steven Pifer. September 30, 2:00-3:30 pm @ The Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium. Details here. http://ow.ly/oZSM9

--"Reform Under Rouhani: Assessing Positive Change In Iran." Discussion with Ramin Asgard, Arash Ghafouri and Geneive Abdo. Sept. 30 from 9:00-10:30 am at Stimson. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/18pv5le