The Long Term Costs of the Nuclear Status Quo

On the radar: The Trillion-dollar triad; Speeding up New START; Iran to stop, ship, shutter; House to save nukes from shutdown; Russia’s nuclear budget hike; and Yongbyon online again.

October 9, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Long-term triad costs - “It is becoming clearer that the costs of maintaining and replacing the aging U.S. nuclear triad are prohibitive...the looming procurement costs for replacement systems could drive the 30-year price tag of the nuclear deterrent in the United States to about $1 trillion,” writes Jon Wolfsthal in Arms Control Today.

--Wolfsthal argues that the U.S. has more nuclear weapons than necessary and the costs of maintaining them are increasingly unaffordable. The next necessary step is to implement President Obama’s new nuclear policy guidance and reduce the size and cost of the force. Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/16xoKUQ

Speed up New START - The White House should accelerate warhead reductions, writes Amb. Steven Pifer in a new analysis. U.S. strategic nuclear force levels remain well above the limits set by the New START treaty, and data shows that U.S. reduction efforts are moving at a snail’s pace to meet the treaty’s requirements by February 2018.

--”Speeding up the reduction of U.S. deployed strategic warheads would be a relatively simple process, poses no security risks, underscores the administration’s commitment to reduce the role and number of nuclear weapons, and strengthens Washington’s non-proliferation credentials. President Obama should set a deadline for achieving the 1550 limit in 2014 and instruct the Department of Defense to make it happen,” writes Pifer. Full post from Brookings. http://bit.ly/19gVmkn

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip or feedback for the editor? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

Iran’s forthcoming proposal - Iran is preparing a proposal for nuclear talks in Geneva next week, offering to halt its production of 20% enriched uranium - which could reduce concern about one of the most worrisome aspects of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran is also expected to offer greater inspections of its facilities and may be considering closure of the Fordow enrichment facility, reports Jay Solomon for The Wall Street Journal.

--In return for stopping 20% enrichment, a suggested plan from Western officials would have Iran ship uranium to a third country and obtain nuclear fuel rods for its research reactor in Tehran. Solomon examines this potential opening bid for nuclear negotiations and its technical and political sticking points. http://on.wsj.com/18PbUAI

Tweet - @ColinKahl: Pegging enriched uranium stockpile 2 actual needs=1 way 4 #Iran 2 climb down w/out losing face. This is good start. http://bit.ly/1aapY5Q

Sanctions and negotiations - “While few in Congress have been acting like statesmen recently, everyone knows you don’t start a negotiation by slapping your counterpart in the face as he extends his hand,” write Maj. Gen. George Buskirk, Jr. (USA, ret.) in The Hill. “Additional sanctions now would weaken Rouhani’s hand domestically, make it harder to win concessions from Iran at the negotiating table, and fuel hardliners in Tehran who say that the United States cannot be trusted and will never accept a deal. This must be avoided at all costs.”

--Maj. Gen. Buskirk writes that the U.S. cannot afford to ignore the opportunity with Iran and that a negotiated solution to Iran’s nuclear program “is by far the best outcome for America’s national security and global interests.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1fZOyz1

Shutdown watch - After provoking a government shutdown, the House of Representatives is now passing piecemeal mini-spending bills to fund specific government programs. “According to senior GOP aides, the next batch [of mini-spending bills in the House] would include funding for border security, nuclear weapons security and benefits that go to survivors of U.S. service members who died on the battlefield,” reports Paul Kane for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1609iwK

Russia’s nuclear budget - Russia is set to increase is spending on nuclear weapons by 50% by 2016, increasing annual spending from 29.3 billion rubles ($910 million) to 46.3 billion rubles (about $1.3 billion), according to a State Duma Defense Committee’s report. Russia, like the United States, is busy upgrading its ICBMs, cruise missiles, and submarine force. RIA Novosti has the story. http://bit.ly/1bZNWnT

Yongbyon - “South Korean officials say they have confirmed that North Korea has restarted a nuclear reactor that had been shut down in 2007. The news bolsters reports last month that the reactor was operating once again,” reports Bill Chappell for NPR. http://n.pr/19juL84

Tweet - @ctbto_alerts: 7 yrs ago today: 1st DPRK #nuclear test, detected quickly, reliably & precisely by our system, though only 60% ready. http://bit.ly/1aapUD9

Speed reads:

--”20 Signs Iran Is Serious About a Nuclear Deal” by Elias Groll of Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/17n6N74

--”Britain and Iran Move to Repair Diplomatic Relations” by Steven Erlanger for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1bZEMre

--”Insight: Saudis brace for 'nightmare' of U.S.-Iran rapprochement” by Angus McDowall of Reuters. http://reut.rs/16Rv0Jl

Events:

--”A Discussion with Ken Pollack, Author of Unthinkable” Wed. Oct. 16 from noon-1:00 at the Middle East Institute. Details here. http://bit.ly/1b3xnX3

--”Minimum Deterrence: Examining the Evidence” discussion with Doug Feith, John Harvey, Amb. Robert Joseph, Adm. Richard Miles and Keith Payne at the Hudson Institute. Wed. Oct. 16th from 12:00-1:30pm. Lunch will be provided. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/17g8Dqg

--”The End of Overkill? Reassessing U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Elbridge Colby, Hans Kristensen, Matt Fay and Christopher Preble. Oct. 15th at noon at the CATO Institute. http://bit.ly/1hwKUYC

--”Securing The Nuclear Enterprise: What Nuclear Crises Teach Us About Future Security Threats” Discussion with Matt Stokes, Henry Sokolski and Brian Finlay at Stimson. Tues. Oct. 22 from 11:30-1:00. Details here. http://bit.ly/17dNvBY