Amb. Crocker: Learning from Past Successes with Iran

November 4, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Engage Iran - “Despite three decades of frosty relations and although most Americans may be unaware of it, talks with Iran have succeeded in the past — and they can succeed again,” writes Ryan Crocker in The New York Times. Amb. Crocker tells of his experience negotiating with Iranians before the invasion of Afghanistan and in establishing the Afghan government.

--Crocker’s lessons for today’s talks: “Serious progress is likely to come only in direct talks between the United States and Iran… the substance of the talks must be closely held… America should be ready to introduce other issues beyond the nuclear file… [and] the United States must make clear that we do not seek to overthrow the Iranian regime.” Full story here. http://nyti.ms/HwrNmR

Cooperation with Congress - “It is crucial that Congress work constructively with President Obama as he tries to lead the way in negotiating a nuclear agreement with Iran. But some lawmakers are so suspicious of Iran and so blindly committed to more sanctions that they could sabotage the best opportunity in years for a peaceful resolution,” writes the The New York Times editorial board, arguing that Congress should hold off on increasing sanctions on Iran. http://nyti.ms/17HU6Zk

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Sanctions advocates - While the Obama Administration has urged Congress to give negotiations with Iran a chance to succeed by holding off on increasing sanctions, some Senators - including Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and Ranking Member Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) - remain determined in their push for more pressure on Tehran. David Lerman of Bloomberg has the story. http://bloom.bg/19um4YT

Workaround - “How Obama Can Bypass Congress and Ease Sanctions on Iran” by Sara Sorcher of The National Journal. http://bit.ly/19ungLN

The new bomber - The Air Force is trying to get a $55 billion bomber program off the ground, overcoming likely budget turbulence and an embarrassing record of cost overruns. Julian Barnes of The Wall Street Journal looks into the new bomber program and profiles the Air Force project managers whose main tasks are to fight cost-overruns by cutting excess requirements from the bomber design, including a $300,000 “kitchenette” and technologically risky set of surveillance sensors.

--The highly classified bomber project has few details available to the public. Though the Air Force has already spent $600 million on research and development with $8.7 billion more to be spent over the next five years. Full article here. http://on.wsj.com/19ufGRx

The new cruise missile - The Pentagon wants to build a new nuclear armed cruise missile, a new stealth bomber and a new ICBM. But the Air Force is unlikely going to be able to afford all three and may need to cut redundant standoff weapons, like the proposed cruise missile. “Rather than spend billions on a weapon that is not needed to deter potential adversaries, the new ALCM might have more value as a bargaining chip to trade for a global ban on all nuclear-armed cruise missiles. This would be a win-win for the military budget and U.S. security,” writes Tom Collina for Defense One. http://bit.ly/1iz3hwA

Negotiating at home and with allies - With nuclear negotiations between Iran and the U.S. to resume this Thursday, both sides engaged in some public diplomacy in hopes of quieting critics and hardliners at home and with allies. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, scolded conservative clerics and military commanders who have attacked President Rouhani’s diplomatic initiative, saying, “no one has the right to see our negotiating team as compromisers… no one has the right to weaken an official who is doing his job.”

--Meanwhile, U.S. diplomats are busy reassuring allies on the process of negotiations with Iran. Secretary of State John Kerry was on his way to Saudi Arabia for talks. U.S. negotiator Wendy Sherman made a lengthy appearance on Israeli television explaining the administration’s outlook on negotiations. Thomas Erdbrink and Jodi Rudoren of The New York Times have the full story. http://nyti.ms/18SZNQ8

Outlook - ”Iran, United States Finally Learning to Talk” by Usha Sahay in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1an7hLG

China’s arsenal - “Chinese nuclear forces, 2013” by Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1hdBSoP

About last week - Below is some nuclear news that you might have missed while Early Warning was offline last week.

--”Diplomacy is key to a deal with Iran” by Paul Pillar in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/16QIPr3

--“A Nuclear Cleanup Effort Leaves Questions Lingering at Scores of Old Sites: Years Later, the Legacy of the U.S. Arms Buildup Remains Near Homes, Parks and Malls.” Big report and database of cleanup sites from John Emshwiller and Jeremy Singer-Vine of The Wall Street Journal. http://bit.ly/17rm8dL

--The Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved a host of State Department nominees for consideration by the full Senate. Included nominees: Rose Gottemoeller for Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security and Frank Rose for Assistant Secretary for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance. http://bit.ly/Hv1Kgc

Revolving door - “Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., walked out of Congress on Jan. 3, 2009, and into a $10,000-a-month consulting contract with Sandia National Laboratories that started paying the next day,” reports James Monteleone of The Albuquerque Journal. Rep. Wilson says that she filed all the necessary ethics paperwork as she left Congress.

--”A DOE inspector general’s report in June, reviewing Wilson’s lab contracts, found evidence of prohibited lobbying, although both Wilson and Sandia denied it. The review also found insufficient documentation of what work was done to justify the consulting payments...Sandia has repaid the government about $226,000 it paid to Wilson between 2009 and 2011.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/HFbGmh

Tweet - @wellerstein: Next spring I will be teaching a course at Georgetown in the History department: HIST-208 Science and the Cold War http://bit.ly/1hHyFLW

History lesson - In November 1983, Soviet intelligence interpreted a NATO wargame, Able Archer, as a surprise nuclear attack from the West and began actively preparing a nuclear response. The event remains a lesson in just how close the Cold War brought us to accidental nuclear annihilation, writes Jamie Doward of The Guardian.

--The prospect of unintentionally starting a nuclear war by just simply practicing for one, so frightened U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, that when intelligence of the Russian response to Able Archer filtered back to her, “[Thatcher] ordered her officials to lobby the Americans to make sure that such a mistake could never happen again.” Although the insights gained from Able Archer seem to have fostered a push for detente between the West and the USSR, the risks of similar nuclear miscalculation are still very real today as thousands of nuclear weapons are still deployed around the world by nuclear states who often still do a poor job of communicating their intentions with each other. Full story here. http://bit.ly/HlekxQ

Events:

--”Nuclear Nightmares: Securing the WOrld Before it is Too Late.” Book discussion with author Joe Cirincione at Roger Williams University. Nov. 5 at 7:30pm. http://bit.ly/1czOdld

--”Technology-Strategy Seminar: Electromagnetic Pulse.” Talk with Amb. Henry Cooper, George Baker and Rich Wagner at CSIS. Nov. 6th from noon-2:00pm. http://bit.ly/1aZueXN

--”Denying WMD To Terrorists And Other Criminals: A Progress Report” Discussion with Simon Limage, Rick Cupitt, Johan Bergenas and Brian Finlay. Nov. 8 from 3:00-4:00pm at Stimson. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1azP43I

--”Cost and benefits to US strategic interests from UK renewal of Trident.” Discussion with Paul Ingram and Peter Huessy at the Capitol Hill Club. Nov. 12 from 8:00-9:30am. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1aYdFNN

--”The Nuclear Crisis at Plutonium Mountain: Two Journalists' Tale.” Discussion with Eben Harrell and David Hoffman at Harvard’s Belfer Center Library. Nov. 13th from 10:00-11:00am. http://hvrd.me/1cHk6Eg