Brzezinski & Scowcroft: Iran Deal Would Advance National Security

November 19, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Lauren Mladenka

Zbig and Scowcroft - “We support President Obama’s decision to seek a first phase understanding with Iran to limit Iran’s nuclear program now. The agreement under discussion would slow crucial elements of the Iran program, make it more transparent and allow time to reach a more comprehensive agreement in the coming year...Such an agreement would advance the national security of the United States, Israel, and other partners in the region,” write former National Security Advisors Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft in a new letter.

--”We call on all Americans and the US Congress to stand firmly with the President in the difficult but historic negotiations with Iran.” http://bit.ly/185WV8U

Don’t look at costs - The Obama administration objects to a provision of the Senate defense authorization bill that would require the administration to compare the costs of overhauling each nuclear warhead individually versus the costs of an adventurous program to merge two nuclear warheads (the W78 and W88) into one new bomb.

--Critics say the proposed “interoperable warhead” is technically risky and undercuts the spirit of the administration’s pledge to not build new nuclear weapons. It’s also unclear if the project - part of NNSA’s plan to build 3 new interoperable warheads and 2 bombs (“3+2”) - would actually produce the administration’s advertised cost savings and arsenal reductions. Full Statement of Administration Policy on the 2014 NDAA. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/18MpItC

Smaller arsenal, less cost - "Since nuclear forces are larger than needed for current military missions, it is time to think more creatively about how to maintain a much smaller nuclear deterrent at an affordable cost," said Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA).

--”While I support reductions to the stockpile and the savings that come with it, the 3+2 plan requires spending tens of billions of dollars more on life extension programs as well as increasing technical risks such as design changes. These costs all come with little benefit. The promise of the 3+2 plan was to provide a smaller stockpile in exchange for a larger investment. However, when the plan is examined, there is no decrease in the number of warheads.” Full remarks from an event sponsored by the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and Women’s Actions for New Directions. http://bit.ly/1dTdweC

Give negotiations time - ”President Barack Obama and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry have asked for more time to test Iran's willingness to enter into a tough and verifiable process of ending its nuclear weapons program, and I think we should give it to them,” writes Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) in response to calls for Congress to increase sanctions on Iran. “The sanctions have succeeded in forcing Iran to the table, and a further round right now -- when it has the potential to derail the negotiations -- is unnecessary.”

--“Ultimately, this is not about trust. It's not about making concessions to Iran or rewarding the mullahs for thwarting the will of the international community for many years. It is about seizing the opportunity to see whether we can end Iran's nuclear weapons program without resorting to military action. And if we cannot, no doubt will remain that the United States made every effort to resolve this grave threat diplomatically,” writes Rep. Schiff at CNN. http://cnn.it/185QDpZ

Sanctions delayed - “Legislation to impose tough new sanctions on Iran is not expected to come to a vote in the Senate before December, after the end of the next round of negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program,” writes Patricia Zengerle. While several lawmakers were considering proposing attaching a new round of sanctions to a defense authorization bill being debated in the Senate this week, further action on sanctions is being delayed in response to a request from the Obama Administration to allow more time to pursue a diplomatic deal with Iran. Full article from Reuters. http://reut.rs/HX69In

Perspectives on the deal - “Split on Accord on Iran Strains U.S.-Israel Ties” by David Sanger and Jodi Rudoren of The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1eg7lC6

Shutdown was expensive - “Don Cook, the National Nuclear Security Administrator’s deputy administrator for defense programs, said the government shutdown this fall cost the agency $330 million. And that was just for defense programs around the complex.” Frank Munger has the story for The Knoxville News Sentinel. http://bit.ly/17Il7sq

Plutonium pork plant - A beleaguered plutonium fuel project in South Carolina - the Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility - faces exploding costs, lengthening delays and budget significant cuts. Yet the program stumbles on, as influential members, like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) whose state stands to benefit from billions in federal spending, have blocked congressional attempts to cut MOX funding or search for less expensive alternatives. Eryn MacDonald at All Things Nuclear gives a state of play and technical analysis of the program.

--Recommendation: ”The program is already far behind schedule and over budget, and if experience with other major NNSA projects is any guide, these problems are likely to get worse instead of better. The original rationale behind the program has been lost. Instead of continuing to throw good money after bad, Congress and the NNSA should cut their losses and return to the safer, less technically demanding, approach of immobilizing excess plutonium.” http://bit.ly/17IlDqj

Tweet - @carnegienpp: Revisiting A.Q. Khan's 1987 threat: http://t.co/0NyhzcGgH9

Events:

--”Rouhani’s First 100 Days.” Discussion with Yasmin Alem, Clifford Kupchan, Hadi Semati, and Greg Thielmann at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St. NW, 12th floor. Nov. 20th at 9:30am. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dOq72x

--”Flawed Logics: Strategic Nuclear Arms Control from Truman to Obama.” Discussion with James Lebovic at George Washington University, Linder Family Commons, Room 602, 1957 E St. NW. Nov. 20th at 1:30pm. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/HNBBsK

--”Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy.” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Christopher Preble, and Laura Odato at B-369 Rayburn House Office Building. Nov. 25th at 12:00pm. http://bit.ly/1bVpEKg