Iran Deal Begins: Compliance and Implementation

January 21, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Joint Plan in action - “Iran has halted its most sensitive nuclear operations under a preliminary deal with world powers, winning some relief from economic sanctions on Monday in a ground-breaking exchange that could ease a threat of war,” write Fredrik Dahl and Justyna Pawlak for Reuters. “The United States and European Union both suspended some trade and other restrictions against the OPEC oil producer after the United Nations' nuclear watchdog confirmed that Iran had fulfilled its side of an agreement made on Nov. 24.”

--“The interim accord was the culmination of years of on-off diplomacy between Iran and six powers - the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. It marks the first time in a decade that Tehran has limited nuclear operations that it says are aimed mainly at generating electricity and the first time the West has eased its economic pressure on Iran.” Full report here. http://reut.rs/1f343TW

IAEA confirms Iran Compliance - “The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the Islamic Republic of Iran has begun to implement measures that will reduce its potential to produce material for nuclear weapons in accordance with the Nov. 24 ‘Joint Plan of Action,’” reports Daryl Kimball for Arms Control Now. “In a short report issued today, the IAEA also noted that it has begun daily inspections at the Natanz and Fordow enrichment facilities. Similar reports will be issued approximately once a month to monitor Iran’s compliance with the agreement.” http://bit.ly/1ds7IpB

Full IAEA report - via @cherylrofer: #IAEA Status of Iran's Nuclear Programme in Relation to the Joint Plan of Action 20 January http://bit.ly/1moCDIJ

IAEA remarks - Read the full remarks on Iran by IAEA Deputy Director General Tero Varjoranta here. http://bit.ly/1bP2Mzd

US, EU lift sanctions with progress - “Iran suspended its most sensitive nuclear development work Monday and world powers immediately responded by lifting some of the sanctions that have crippled the oil-based economy — a first cautious step toward making good on a deal aimed at resolving a decade-long standoff over Iran’s nuclear program,” reports Jason Rezaian and Anne Gearan for The Washington Post. Full story here. http://wapo.st/1eNFVTd

Scrap nuclear F-35 - “Barring investment from European allies, the Pentagon should abandon the goal of a nuclear-capable F-35 Joint Strike Fighter in favor of spending funds elsewhere, according to former Air Force Chief of Staff Norton Schwartz. ‘I recognize and fully support the need for nuclear deterrence in America’s defense architecture to include the triad and capabilities on which a number of our alliances depend,’ Schwartz said in a speech organized by the Stimson Center, a DC-based think tank. But the Pentagon needs to ask if ‘pursuing nuclear capability in the F-35 the best use of precious investment dollars, as this is a multiple-hundred million dollar decision, and more if one considers the optimization of the weapon for the F-35.’” Full report by Aaron Mehta for the Air Force Times. http://bit.ly/1i7O8qs

Kerry, Rouhani in Davos - “U.S. officials said there’s a possibility Secretary of State John Kerry will meet Iranian President Hassan Rouhani this week on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.” Jay Solomon has the full story for The Wall Street Journal here. http://on.wsj.com/1dnTYMA

Analysis - “Defining Iranian Nuclear Programs in a Comprehensive Solution under the Joint Plan of Action” by the Institute for Science and International Security. January 15, 2014. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1ea6mAV

Possible dimensions - “Handling Iran’s Weaponization File,” by Mark Hibbs and Andreas Persbo. http://bit.ly/1kSBg9U

Tweet - @FitzpatrickIISS: Today #Iran's nuclear program is finally capped. My take: http://bit.ly/1dnxMCf

Sen. Leahy - “Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT.) warned Sunday that a proposed Senate bill that would impose new sanctions on Iran if talks on a comprehensive nuclear deal failed could jeopardize the very negotiations they are designed to spur,” reports Justin Sink for The Hill.

--“If the negotiations fail — if Iran is seen cheating, we will impose more sanctions in a nanosecond — both the House and the Senate will...Don't do it prematurely, because if you're trying to negotiate something, you don't have a third party — in this case, the Congress, coming in involved in that negotiation,” said Sen. Leahy. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1bfObsJ

Gates on sanctions - “Former Defense Secretary Bob Gates says President Obama is ‘absolutely right’ to oppose congressional efforts to impose additional sanctions on Iran's government -- as he negotiates with Tehran to give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons,” writes Lesley Clark for McClatchy. “‘They're at the table,’ Gates said of the Iranians. ‘I think to add sanctions right now really would run a very high risk of blowing it all up.’” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1ijwrEL

NNSA faces the music - The National Nuclear Security Administration set out to build 3 multi-billion nuclear weapons facilities at the same time, during fiscal tightening. Early on, however, it was apparent that “The budget cannot swallow those three projects as presently aligned,” testified Everet Beckner in 2009. “Beckner was right. Within two years, the [pit disassembly facility in South Carolina] was being shuttered and the [Los Alamos plutonium facility] was being indefinitely delayed so the agency’s resources could be marshaled to complete one of the three – the Uranium Processing Facility,” writes John Fleck for the Albuquerque Journal.

--Faced with skyrocketing costs, the NNSA is now looking for alternatives to building the UPF. “Those ‘alternative mission delivery scenarios’ being developed for the Tennessee uranium work are the agency’s implicit acknowledgement that not only cannot their budget swallow the ballooning costs of three big nuclear projects; it may not be possible to swallow even one.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1he1wFW

Symptoms - “If the Air Force cheating scandal disclosed last week were a singular event, it would be easier to accept Pentagon assurances that America’s nuclear deterrence and military readiness have not been compromised. But it is the latest in a series of breaches that have raised alarms about discipline and competency in the Air Force.” Read the full piece from the editorial board of the The New York Times here. http://nyti.ms/1dseziM

Causes - Revelations this week that missile launch officers cheated on a proficiency exam -- the latest in a stream of embarrassing incidents -- has put the spotlight on a force that has posed a recurring headache to commanders for years,” writes Daniel de Luce for AFP. “But concerns about declining standards in the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force are nothing new,” with the trouble beginning “after the demise of the Soviet Union, as the mission gradually received a lower priority and offered a less promising career path.”

--”For arms control advocates, the whole enterprise is absurd and the discipline problems are an inevitable byproduct,” de Luce says. ”There’s no purpose in their mission anymore,” according to Joseph Cirincione of the Ploughshares Fund. “The launch officers ‘pull 12, 24-hour shifts in underground bunkers waiting to push a button they know they're never going to push.’” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1bfSFiP

Complacency on nuclear security - In the last few months, the Air Force has faced a string of scandals in the ICBM force - including a disorderly commander, cheating officers and drug usage. This follows incidents in 2012, when an 82-year old nun broke into a U.S. uranium facility, whose guards were later shown to be cheating on readiness tests.

--“These incidents highlight an important issue for countries that possess the world’s most dangerous weapons or the materials needed to build those weapons, highly enriched uranium and plutonium. How does the world sustain efforts to reduce the risk of nuclear theft and sabotage?” Nickolas Roth for The Boston Globe. http://b.globe.com/1bfRaRN

Quick hits:

--“Modernize Nukes, Save Billions in Taxpayer Dollars” by Eric Tamerlani for Roll Call. http://bit.ly/1dMomGv

--“New Iran sanctions? Not now” by Greg Thielmann for The Virginia-Pilot. http://bit.ly/LAW4CA

--“Pakistan in Talks to Acquire 3 Nuclear Plants From China” by Saeed Shah for The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1aHUhlG

--“Air Force Swears: Our Nuke Launch Code Was Never ‘00000000,’” by Dan Lamothe for Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/LAI1gw

Events:

--”Making Sense of Nuclear Negotiations with Iran: A Good Deal or a Bad Deal?” Discussion with Alireza Nader, Daryl Kimball and Paul Pillar. Jan. 22nd from 10:00-11:00am at 2168 Rayburn House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/19Th8zR

--”Resolved: The United States Should Modernize Only One Leg of the Nuclear Triad.” Debate with Christopher Preble and Elbridge Colby. Jan. 27th from 6:00-8:00 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/L7utt2