House NDAA: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

May 23, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

What’s in the bill? - “Amendments to the Fiscal Year 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in the House” by Kingston Reif in Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/1gpkTzS

Good - The House of Representatives showed great wisdom by voting to approve Rep. Blumenauer’s (D-OR) amendment “to the FY 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) to require annual updates to a December Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study on the cost of U.S. nuclear weapons. The CBO report estimated that maintaining and modernizing the U.S. nuclear arsenal would cost $355 billion over ten years,” writes Tom Collina in Arms Control Now.

--“‘There should be no objection from anyone about knowing how much the projects will cost,’ Blumenauer said on the House floor. ‘It will be valuable if you want to increase the programs. It will be valuable if you want to decrease them. It will be valuable if you just want to fund the existing program.’ Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), chair of the strategic forces subcommittee, did not see it that way. Rogers said that Blumenauer ‘wants to unilaterally cut our nuclear forces’ and called the amendment ‘a new effort to disarm this country’s deterrent.’ Now, Rogers may disagree with Blumenauer’s views, but he cannot make a compelling case that an annual update of the CBO cost study would undermine the U.S. nuclear arsenal.”

--“What is Rogers worried about? Maybe that drawing attention to the costs of nuclear weapons will lead some to question whether those costs are justified. But that is exactly the kind of debate that Congress needs to have,” Collina says. Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1tttcx3

Bad - “The United States House showed support for the Savannah River Site’s MOX program on Thursday by green-lighting its version of the National Defense Authorization Bill,” writes Derrek Asberry in the Aiken Standard. “The bill includes language that approves construction of the MOX facility for fiscal year 2015 rather than using funding to place it in a cold stand-by. The bill also asks for a non-partisan third party to assess a cost estimate of the program.”

--“The MOX program is part of a nonproliferation agreement with Russia to dispose of 34 metric tons of weapons-grade plutonium. State and congressional leaders have heightened their support of the program since March 4 when the president’s fiscal year 2015 budget proposal included placing the program in a cold stand-by.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1k1r2gA

Ugly - “The U.S. House on Thursday approved a bill that seeks to keep the Obama administration from implementing a strategic arms control treaty with Russia,” reports Rachel Oswald for Global Security Newswire. “In a vote of 233-191, Congress' lower chamber approved an amendment to its annual defense-authorization legislation that would provisionally block the Pentagon from using any fiscal 2015 funds to implement the New START accord. Expenditures would be prohibited until Moscow is deemed in compliance with several other arms control agreements, is ‘no longer illegally occupying’ the Crimean Peninsula, and ceases destabilizing activities in other parts of Ukraine.”

--“The New START pact entered into force in February 2011, after the Obama administration lobbied fiercely for its passage in the Senate. The treaty is considered one of President Obama's key foreign policy accomplishments. It requires the United States and Russia by 2018 to cap their respective fielded long-range nuclear arsenals at 1,550 warheads. The pact also requires each side to limit to 800 its deployed and nondeployed strategic delivery platforms, including bomber aircraft and ground- and submarine-based ballistic missiles.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1p0ez4O

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: Time for Russia to come clean on INF violations, get treaty back on track. House hearing sheds new light. http://bit.ly/S0ewaW

Mixed bag - “Funding U.S. programs that enhance nuclear security has been a controversial issue this year in Congress,” writes Nickolas Roth in Nuclear Security Matters. The House Armed Services Committee’s recently released version of the National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2015 is a mixed bag on the nuclear security front, with the committee proposing to pick up “some of the slack the Obama administration left for nonproliferation programs — increasing the administration’s request by $10 million overall — but it also slashed a key nuclear security effort and called for putting all nuclear security cooperation with Russia on hold.”

--“The most problematic sections of the NDAA address nuclear security cooperation with Russia. The HASC report argues that its proposed budget cuts are justified because that money would have gone towards Russian nuclear security cooperation. The HASC has also proposed a series of roadblocks that would prevent the United States and Russia from working together to prevent nuclear terrorism,” including section 1303 of the NDAA, which “limits the Department of Defense’s Cooperative Threat Reduction funding to Russia until the Secretary of Defense certified that Russia was ‘respecting the sovereignty of Ukrainian territory, no longer acting inconsistently with the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and in compliance with the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe.’”

--“Well-funded programs that facilitate cooperation to reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism are in the national interests of the United States, Russia, and the world. The situation in Ukraine does not change that fact. Stolen nuclear material is bad for everybody. Suspending cooperation because you are upset about an unrelated policy issue is, as my friend Kingston Reif has said, simply cutting off our nose to spite our face.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/RVfS6X

NDAA successes - “Today, the House of Representatives set aside partisan politics and adopted 10 sensible amendments to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2015 that will enhance the national security of the United States.” Nuclear highlights include:

--”Amendment 147—Polis (D-Colo.), Nadler (D-N.Y.): The U.S. wastes billions of dollars developing missile defense platforms that are unproven and cannot perform reliably. Over the past five years, the U.S. has not conducted a single successful test of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) missile system, yet the Pentagon continues to request additional funding for the program. This amendment encourages the Secretary of Defense to conduct successful operationally realistic tests before purchasing additional GMD interceptors. (adopted by voice vote)”

--”Amendment 24. (filed as #221)—Blumenauer (D-Ore.): In last year’s NDAA, Congress requested that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) publish a report on the long-term estimated cost of the United States’ nuclear weapons arsenal. This report found that the United States is expected to spend $355 billion over the next decade on nuclear weapons and associated personnel—previously underestimated by $150 billion. This amendment requires CBO to provide these cost estimates annually. (adopted 224-199)” See the full piece from Ethan Rosenkranz for the Project on Government Oversight here. http://bit.ly/1ttwBfn

Iranian diplomacy critics fall-in - “Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif got the backing of one of the biggest critics of his government’s stance in nuclear talks, as the country’s hardliners fall into line with the search for detente,” reports Kambiz Foroohar for Bloomberg. “‘All must support the negotiating team to reach our aim’ of securing Iran’s nuclear rights, said Saeed Jalili, former presidential candidate and nuclear negotiator. ‘The nuclear discussions are above and beyond narrow political and factional debates.’”

--“Jalili’s comment comes two days after the chief of Iran’s armed forces warned conservative media organizations, some with links to the Revolutionary Guards, to stop inciting the public against the nuclear talks and to back President Hassan Rouhani instead. Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, who reports directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said media outlets should put aside factionalism and help ‘build the country and assist the administration.’” http://bloom.bg/Ss7BYH

Tweet - @NTI_GSN: U.S. May Revive 'Secret' Bilateral Talks With Iran http://bit.ly/1ocZs81

THIS JUST IN: IAEA Report - “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran” IAEA Board of Governors Report, 5/23/2014. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1kaZ5bs

Status update - “A U.N. atomic watchdog report due on Friday is likely to confirm that Iran is curbing its nuclear activities as agreed with world powers in a landmark accord last year,” Fredrik Dahl reports for Reuters. Diplomatic sources said that “the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would probably verify in a monthly update that Iran is living up to its part of the interim agreement struck in November, designed to buy time for talks on a long-term deal.” The report “is also expected to include information about Iran's agreement this week to address two issues in a long-stalled IAEA investigation into suspected atomic bomb research by Tehran, which denies any such work. The undertaking could advance the research the IAEA is trying to carry out, and may also help Iran and six world powers to negotiate a broader deal to end a dispute that has raised fears of a new Middle East war.” Full report here. http://reut.rs/1m1FRTs

The day after - “Fast-forward to July 21: The Joint Plan of Action (JPA) between the so-called P5+1 and Iran has been replaced by the recently signed comprehensive agreement, negotiating an end to a dispute that has lasted a dozen years over Iran’s nuclear program,” write Navid Hassibi and Janne Nolan in The National Interest. “Now that this major international security concern has been resolved, what’s in store for U.S.-Iranian relations? Will the seeming thaw expand into greater strategic cooperation?”

--“Successfully implementing the agreement cannot be overstated. If either side of the agreement violates its terms, confidence-building will regress and the prospects of a resurrected political, economic and perhaps even military conflict will increase, much to the contentment of hardliners in Washington and Tehran, but ultimately to the detriment of U.S.-Iran relations and regional stability… For Iran, complying with the provisions of the agreement will certainly include ensuring transparency into its nuclear program through the agreed monitoring and verification mechanisms of the agreement such as the Additional Protocol and other supplemental inspection measures,” among other considerations. “For the United States, complying with the comprehensive agreement will undoubtedly require sanctions relief which could be problematic, particularly as it relates to lifting congressionally mandated sanctions enacted into law.”

--“Bilateral cooperation beyond the nuclear issue could prove difficult as ideological differences continue to divide both countries. Despite these differences, both sides share common concerns in areas where deep divisions exist. Case in point: Syria,” say Hassibi and Nolan. “Needless to say, a comprehensive nuclear deal could be the beginning of a strategic recalculation in Washington and Tehran and could lead to further regional cooperation. It could all begin on July 21.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1k1GIRc

Panel named - “The Energy Department has announced who will sit on a commission to review the missions of the national laboratories,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz in a Tuesday press release said the nine-member independent panel will be co-chaired by Jared Cohon, a civil engineer and past president of Carnegie Mellon University, and T.J. Glauthier, a former deputy Energy secretary in the Clinton administration.”

--“Congress ordered the establishment of the commission when it approved the fiscal 2014 omnibus spending bill in January. The panel's mandate is to assess whether the national laboratories ‘are properly aligned with the department's strategic priorities; have clear ... missions that are not unnecessarily redundant and duplicative; have unique capabilities ... to meet current and future energy and national security challenges; [and] are appropriately sized.’" Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1m1ArYq

Waste consideration - “New Mexico is vetting federal plans for dealing with atomic-waste barrels containing a potentially corrosive absorbent,” Global Security Newswire reports. “State environmental regulators on Wednesday received a proposal from Los Alamos National Laboratory for handling 86 storage drums on its premises. Those barrels are among hundreds now thought to be at risk of breaking open, following a rupture in one container at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant near Carlsbad.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1me2WDW

Old bomber gets new tricks - “The B-52 bomber … is getting its first major communications system upgrade since the Kennedy administration,” writes Alex Davies in a piece for WIRED. Among other things, “the high-flying, long-distance bomber is finally ditching its old-school cathode ray tube, green-on-black screens for full-color LCDs.” The B-52 Stratofortress “has been the United States’ preeminent strategic bomber since it entered service in 1955… In the earliest years of the Cold War, there usually was at least one B-52 airborne at all times. Later, the plane flew missions over Vietnam and during the Gulf War. They bombed Yugoslavia in 1999 and, more recently, flew sorties over Afghanistan and Iraq. And as old as it is, the Air Force expects the venerable plane to remain in service for at least another 35 years.”

--“In April, the Air Force began the four-year process of fitting its fleet of 76 B-52s with Boeing’s new Combat Network Communications Technology (CONECT) system. For the first time, B-52 crews can easily retarget weapons and change mission parameters while airborne. They can see intelligence data overlaid on maps shown on high-def LCD screens. And the plane’s myriad communications, targeting and navigation systems can receive data electronically, rather than having it relayed by radio and entered by hand… t is expected to take four years to outfit all 76 airplanes. According to a March 2014 budget request, the Air Force plans to spend $14 million on the project this year, and a total of $40.6 million between 2014 and 2019.” Full report here. http://wrd.cm/1ksXEof

Events:

--“The Korean Peninsula Issues and U.S. National Security.” Discussion with Wallace Gregson, Gen. Seung Jo Jung, Joseph Bosco, David Maxwell, and Larry Niksch. May 23 from 1:15-4:30 at 345 Cannon House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lBkqXQ

--“The United States and Global Missile Defense.” Discussion with 20 policy experts. May 28 at 8:30am at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St. NW, 12th floor, West Tower. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lFlA5Z

--“Chain Reaction 2014.” Ploughshares Fund Gala with Michael Douglas, Jeremy Ben-Ami and Trita Parsi. June 3 from 6:00 to 8:30 at The Open Square at Futures Without Violence, 100 Montgomery Street, The Presidio of San Francisco. Purchase tickets here. http://bit.ly/1nexkld