Outlining a Successful Iran Nuclear Deal

On the radar: What a successful Iran deal includes; Marathon talks in store for negotiators; Iran nuclear sanctions and the drug trade; Uneasy coexistence between sanctions and business; India could be ready to export ballistic missiles; Minot AFB gets a new missile wing commander; and Frivolous Manhattan Project claim rejected by courts.

June 26, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka

Outlining the deal - “In less than one month, negotiators from the United States and its P5+1 partners (China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom) and their Iranian counterparts aim to conclude a historic, multi-year agreement to ensure that Iran's nuclear program is exclusively peaceful. A new report from the research staff of the nonpartisan, independent Arms Control Association (ACA) reviews the key issues and outlines realistic and effective options that are available to the negotiators that could help secure a ‘win-win’ outcome that guards against a nuclear-armed Iran.”

--“Our analysis shows that the agreement can and should: 1) establish verifiable limits on Iran's uranium-enrichment and plutonium-production capacity that substantially increase the time it would take for Iran to break out of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and try to build nuclear weapons; 2) increase the international community's ability to promptly detect and effectively disrupt any future effort by Iran to build nuclear weapons, including at potential undeclared sites, and decrease Iran's incentives to build up its nuclear capacity through nuclear fuel supply guarantees and phased sanctions relief," said ACA nonproliferation analyst and lead author, Kelsey Davenport. Full article here. http://bit.ly/1wB5AZ7

Full report - “Solving the Iranian Nuclear Puzzle: Toward a Realistic and Effective Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement” from the Arms Control Association (pdf). http://bit.ly/1iJE2Oe

Marathon talks - “Russia's U.N. envoy on Wednesday said the next round of talks between Iran and six world powers will be a two-week marathon session, while warning a panel of U.N. sanctions experts not to sabotage the final phase of the delicate negotiations,” Louis Charbonneau reports for Reuters. “Speaking about the previous round of negotiations, June 16 to 20, Churkin said ‘it was very useful and confirmed the overall readiness to continue cooperating in a constructive vein.’ He predicted that their readiness for cooperation would continue in the talks beginning next week.”

--“The long period set aside for the negotiations between Iran and the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany may be an indication both of how difficult it will be to overcome the differences between Tehran and the six - and the parties' determination to get a deal.” Full article here. http://reut.rs/1o6vGiS

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: "Avoiding the Worst: Re-framing the Debate on Nuclear Disarmament" Must read oped by Amb @alexanderkmentt via @theELN http://bit.ly/1nLc2Gd

Sanctions and drugs - “Iran's interior minister says international sanctions imposed over the country's controversial nuclear program have slowed down its ability to fight drug smuggling,” the AP reports. “Iran lies on a major trafficking route between Afghanistan and Europe, as well as the Persian Gulf states. Large drug seizures are common across the region. The country's official IRNA news agency on Thursday quoted Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli as saying the sanctions have ‘caused a failure to get electronic equipment’ badly needed for the anti-drug campaign.” Read the full report here. http://abcn.ws/1iJzEim

Tweet - @globalzero: Scientists at @Princeton make progress on new technology for verifying dismantled #nuclear weapons: http://owl.li/ytEJo

It takes time - “With the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough next month bringing an end to Iran's international isolation, officials in Tehran are preparing to roll out the red carpet to foreign firms,” writes Andrew Torchia in Reuters. “But a tough legal environment and tricky domestic market mean the hoped-for billions in investment may not come soon.”

--“Even if a nuclear deal is reached, the sanctions won't disappear quickly. Over decades of confrontation between Iran and the West, they have developed into a complex network of overlapping measures introduced by the U.S. government, the European Union and the United Nations, covering areas from banking and shipping to autos and aviation, as well as individual Iranian firms.”

--“Untangling the rules will take considerable time - and in the meantime many foreign companies, alarmed by fines worth hundreds of millions of dollars imposed by the U.S. government on violators of its sanctions, may avoid taking legal risks.” Read the full piece here. http://reut.rs/1sEKHxx

Missile exports - “The head of India's biggest weapons agency says that the country will soon be ready to export indigenously developed ballistic and cruise missiles,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Locally developed weapons that could be exported at competitive prices include the nonstrategic Prahar ballistic missile, the surface-to-air Akash missile and the Brahmos supersonic cruise missile, which was jointly developed with Russia.”

--“Thus far, India has not been a major weapons exporter, but the recent development of more advanced systems, such as the supersonic Brahmos missile has had India moving more confidently in recent years in displaying its wares at defense shows.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1rCMXRw

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: "Fort Greely may get 14 missiles at $75 million apiece, though they may soon be obsolete @adndotcom ow.ly/ytGJj

Job swap - “Minot Air Force Base has a new missile wing commander and it might be in line for more personnel,” the AP reports. “Command of the 91st Missile Wing was transferred Tuesday from Col. Robert Vercher to Col. Michael Lutton. The military routinely brings in new leaders every few years.”

--“The two commanders are essentially switching jobs. Vercher will become deputy director of mission assessment and analysis at U.S. Strategic Command at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska — a position Lutton has held for the past two years. Vercher has commanded the 91st Missile Wing during the same time period.” Full article here. http://1.usa.gov/VqGzTt

Events:

--“Iran Sanctions: What the U.S. Cedes in a Nuclear Deal.” Discussion with Suzanne Maloney, Kenneth Katzman, and Elizabeth Rosenberg; moderated by Robin Wright. July 8 from 9:30 to 11:00 at the U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lTst7K

Dessert:

Frivolous claim - “Detroit is off the hook for $150 million to buy garbage trucks that one resident claimed or to compensate a California man $1 trillion for the loss of nuclear research materials, a U.S.Bankruptcy Court judge ruled on Wednesday,” writes Cherie Curry in Reuters.

--“The city characterized the claim for $1 trillion by Albert O'Rourke of Oceanside, California, as frivolous. O'Rourke said the city had lost or destroyed ‘Manhattan Project’ nuclear research materials housed in property he owns in Detroit. The claim amount was based on the price tag for building various nuclear weapons and devices related to the missing materials.” Get the full story here. http://reut.rs/1jQLPoh