Intelligence Estimate Finds Rifts in Iranian Nuclear Resolve

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Tuesday February 22, 2011

U.S. Report Finds Debate in Iran on Building Nuclear Bomb - Greg Miller and Joby Warrick in The Washington Post [link]

• A comprehensive new U.S. intelligence report concludes that Iran has resumed research on key components for a nuclear weapon, but that the slow and scattered nature of the effort reflects renewed debate within the government over whether to build a bomb, U.S. officials said.
• But the new report reaches no firm conclusions about when Iran might acquire the bomb. The classified estimate has already triggered debate among American officials over whether Iran's apparent hesitation is the result of U.S.-backed sanctions meant to derail any weapons program.
• Overall, the National Intelligence Estimate concludes that Iran is conducting "early-stage R&D work on aspects of the manufacturing process for a nuclear weapon," said a U.S. official familiar with the report. At the same time, the estimate describes "serious debate within the Iranian regime . . . on how to proceed."
• Over the past year, U.S. intelligence officials have become increasingly convinced that Iran's progress toward building a bomb has suffered setbacks, giving the United States and its allies an additional cushion of two years or more before Tehran would be in position to test a device.
• Delays to Iran's program have been attributed in part to elaborate attempts at sabotage, including the unleashing of a computer worm, called Stuxnet, that caused major equipment failures in centrifuge machines at Natanz.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Folly - The New York Times [link]

• With the Middle East roiling, the alarming news about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons buildup has gotten far too little attention. The Times recently reported that American intelligence agencies believe Pakistan has between 95 and more than 110 deployed nuclear weapons, up from the mid-to-high 70s just two years ago.
• Pakistan can’t feed its people, educate its children, or defeat insurgents without billions of dollars in foreign aid. Yet, with China’s help, it is now building a fourth nuclear reactor to produce more weapons fuel.
• Washington could threaten to suspend billions of dollars of American aid if Islamabad does not restrain its nuclear appetites. But that would hugely complicate efforts in Afghanistan and could destabilize Pakistan.
• The ultimate nightmare, of course, is that the extremists will topple Pakistan’s government and get their hands on the nuclear weapons. We also don’t rest easy contemplating the weakness of Pakistan’s civilian leadership, the power of its army and the bitterness of the country’s rivalry with nuclear-armed India.
• Washington also needs to urge the two militaries to start talking, and urge the two governments to begin exploring ways to lessen the danger of an accidental nuclear war — with more effective hotlines and data exchanges — with a long-term goal of arms-control negotiations.
• Washington and its allies must also continue to look for ways to get Pakistan to stop blocking negotiations on a global ban on fissile material production.
• The world, especially this part of the world, is a dangerous enough place these days. It certainly doesn’t need any more nuclear weapons.

After New START: Challenges and Opportunities for 21st Century Arms Control - Jonathan Pearl for The Bulletin for Atomic Scientists [link]

• Now that the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) has finally entered into force, how will the Obama administration achieve further bilateral nuclear reductions with Russia? With tremendous effort, public engagement, and compromise.
• Washington and Moscow will need to reach compromises on four challenging issues: tactical (nonstrategic) nuclear weapons, missile defense, conventional missile technology, and space security.
• To resolve differences, Washington must be similarly creative, perhaps exploring options that offer flexibility instead of strict force parity -- allowing Washington to keep (under an overall warhead limit) more non-deployed strategic warheads while Moscow keeps more tactical weapons, for example.
• The Obama administration is already looking to resolve the above challenges and has suggested a timetable for next steps in US-Russian arms control negotiations, but even in the best-case scenario, follow-on negotiations will take years. Despite this extended timeframe, however, the administration would be wise to learn from its experience with New START by taking three near-term steps to help pave the way forward.
• Domestic diplomacy. The more a follow-on agreement represents a true transformation in strategic thinking, the harder it will be to secure support for it.
• Strategic evolution. Charting a new strategic course requires the development of new strategic thinking; however, not enough open-source strategic analysis has been devoted to managing stability in a world with very low numbers of nuclear weapons.
• Investing in the future. The Obama administration repeatedly emphasizes the need to invest in America's future. It is essential that nuclear weapons -- which will be a part of that future -- be kept safe and secure.

An Essay by Chuck Hagel - Sen. Chuck Hagel in the Omaha World-Herald [link]

• We are today defining a new world order. Not since World War II has mankind witnessed such a realignment of interests, influences and challenges.
• One of these transformational 21st century centers of gravity is the Middle East. What occurred in Egypt is but one of the new global frameworks that are being constructed. New architecture requires new pillars of support.
• The shaky and incomplete transition in Iraq, the 10 years and counting of the U.S. being bogged down in a war in Afghanistan, the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, combating terrorism, the possibility of a nuclear armed Iran, and the uncertainty of the future not only in Iraq, Tunisia and Egypt, but also Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, Lebanon, Algeria and possibly Jordan, all remain U.S. foreign policy priorities. Now, the new realities of Middle East popular reform are part of the calibration of U.S. strategic thinking and policy.
• How events play out in Bahrain and Yemen will have consequences for Saudi Arabia, the other Persian Gulf countries and the U.S., which has vital energy security and counterterrorism interests — including preventing the spread of nuclear weapons in this part of the world. Jordan, Lebanon, Iran, Libya and Iraq are also open questions, driven by the specific conditions in each country.
• Individual and societal freedoms that allow men and women to innovate, invent, improve and imagine will never be driven from the human spirit. Human endeavor will always eventually dominate and dictate the course of events. This is the story of world civilization. This is the drama that is now playing out in the Middle East.

North Korea Digs Tunnels For Likely Nuclear Test: Report - Reuters [link]

• North Korea is digging tunnels at a site where it has launched two nuclear tests, suggesting it is preparing a third, the South's Yonhap news agency said on Sunday.
• "South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities have spotted North Korea building several other underground mines at Punggye-ri where it had run two nuclear tests," the unidentified source was quoted as saying.
• Military talks broke down between the two sides this month, dealing a setback to the resumption of six-party aid-for-disarmament negotiations, which North Korea walked out of more than two years ago.
• Analysts say leader Kim Jong-il wants to use the country's nuclear and missile programs to herald the success of Kim family rule, and smooth the way for his youngest son Jong-un's succession.
• North Korea has said it wants to return to the broader six-party negotiations, but Seoul and Washington have questioned its sincerity about denuclearising -- pointing to its revelations in November about a uranium-enrichment program.
  

The Lighter Side

Nuke Plant’s Coal Smokestacks Demolished - Gizmodo [link]

• This complex helped create the nuclear bomb that leveled Nagasaki. Now, it's debris. Karma?