Iran Warns of Time Limit to Negotiations

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Wednesday January 12, 2011.

Iran Says Time Running Out for Nuclear Deal - Alan Cowell for The New York Times [link]

• A week before nuclear talks resume with outside powers, a senior Iranian official was quoted on Wednesday as saying that time was running out for negotiations on some parts of his country’s nuclear program because of Tehran’s enhanced ability to enrich and manufacture atomic fuel. It was not clear whether the remarks were intended as an overture — or as a maneuver to raise the stakes — before the negotiations restart.
• The official, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, referred in particular to an abortive agreement dating to October 2009 providing for Iran to ship nuclear material abroad in return for nuclear fuel rods for a research reactor in Teheran. 
• “Time is moving against the negotiating side,” Mr. Soltanieh said, referring to the group of countries — the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — that, along with the European Union, are set to resume talks with Iranian negotiators in Istanbul on Jan. 21 following inconclusive negotiations in Geneva in December. “It should use the chance at the earliest...After the installation of the first fuel rods, produced by Iran, in the core of the Tehran research reactor, Iran’s Parliament will probably never allow the government to negotiate dispatching uranium to Turkey or other countries."
• A Western diplomat in Vienna, where the IAEA has its headquarters, said that it was not clear whether Iran was able to certify the enriched uranium for use as fuel.  “This kind of last chance language has been used repeatedly by both sides” in negotiations with Iran, the diplomat said. “But time keeps on running anyhow.” Moreover, he added, “neither side wants to scupper the deal, even though it has not progressed.”
• Two days ago, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said sanctions had delayed Iran’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon. Her remarks offered the strongest and most public claim by the Obama administration that its campaign was impairing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.  “Iran has had technological problems that have made it slow down its timetable,” Mrs. Clinton said during a visit to the Gulf state of Abu Dhabi. “The sanctions are working.”

Russia Lukewarm About Further Nuclear Arms Cuts - By Vladimir Isachenkov in The Washington Post [link]

• Remarks Thursday by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov signaled that the United States would be unlikely to score quick progress in its push to discuss deeper cuts in nuclear arsenals with Moscow as part of President Barack Obama's goal of a nuclear arms-free world.
• "We are convinced that before talking about any further steps in the sphere of nuclear disarmament, limitation and reduction of nuclear weapons, it's necessary to fulfill the New START agreement," Lavrov said at a news conference, "It will become clear then what further steps must be taken to strengthen global security and strategic stability."
• The U.S. has long pushed Russia to also negotiate cuts in shorter-range nuclear weapons not covered by New START. Moscow has been reluctant to do that because it sees its massive stockpiles of the so-called tactical nuclear weapons as a compensation for the Western edge in conventional forces and new weapons technologies. "The balance of forces in Europe has been seriously tilted with NATO's expansion," Lavrov said.
• Lavrov said that talks on cutting tactical nuclear warheads must include such issues as potential weaponization of space, strategic missiles equipped with conventional explosives and other non-nuclear conventional weapons.  Lavrov also reaffirmed Russia's stance that the U.S. should withdraw its tactical nuclear weapons from Europe. He added that future talks on nuclear weapons cuts must also engage other nuclear powers.

Defusing Venezuela's Nuclear Threat? - Doug Bandow and Juan Carlos Hidalgo in The Huffington Post [link]

• Venezuela's close relationship with Iran and plans to build nuclear facilities with Russian help are raising fears in Washington of another nuclear crisis.  Washington need not panic. A 'Chávez bomb" is but a distant possibility and much will happen in Venezuela in the meantime. The U.S. should work with other interested states to discourage Caracas from pursuing nuclear weapons.
• Obviously, it would be foolish to dismiss the possibility of Venezuela becoming a nuclear power, but it is equally mistaken to speak of "an over-the-horizon Cuban Missile Crisis," in the words of the Heritage Foundation's Peter Brookes. Venezuela is nowhere close to or certain of becoming a threat to the U.S. Thus, the Obama administration should develop a long-term strategy to head off any "Chávez bomb."
• The U.S. should maintain a low profile in Venezuelan affairs. The chief issue in the upcoming election should be Chávez's disastrous record. The less attention received by U.S. officials and policy, the less blame Chávez can off-load on Washington, and the less he can claim that America poses a threat.
• The U.S. also should engage Moscow. The Obama administration should be prepared to make concessions on matters of NATO expansion and missile defense as part of a larger political understanding, which would limit or end Russia's military relationship and nuclear plans with Caracas.
• Washington should encourage Venezuela's neighbors and United Nations Security Council members to press Caracas, as a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to comply with International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. Particularly important are the roles of Brazil and Argentina, which have had nuclear ambitions in the past.

Nuclear Weapons Sites Cuts Put Public at Risk, Says Watchdog - Rob Edwards for The Guardian [link]

• Staff shortages and funding cuts at nuclear weapons sites across the UK have put the public and the environment at risk, according to the Ministry of Defence's nuclear safety watchdog. The analysis, marked "restricted", points to 11 "potentially significant risks" at bomb-making sites and ports housing nuclear submarines, documents seen by the Guardian show.
• The reports cover 2006 and 2007 and were written by Rear Admiral Nigel Guild, chairman of the defence nuclear environment and safety board, an agency within the MoD that oversees nuclear safety. They were released in response to requests under the Freedom of Information Act.
• Guild identified 11 "potentially significant risks" at sites across the UK, including the atomic bomb factories at Aldermaston and Burghfield in Berkshire and the nuclear submarine and weapons bases on the Clyde near Glasgow. The workforce, the public and the environment were all being put at risk, he warned.
• A spokeswoman for the MoD said that it took its safety responsibilities extremely seriously. Guild's role was to provide "assurance on safety and environmental aspects of the defence nuclear programme through a process of regulation and assessment," she said.
• "This rightly involves the identification of areas requiring attention, with the objective of achieving ongoing improvement in safety performance to ensure that the UK's defence nuclear programmes continue to operate in a safe manner."

View From the Dark Side

North Korea's Imminent Threat - Bruce Klinger for Wall Street Journal [link]

• Secretary of Defense Robert Gates made headlines this week by announcing that "North Korea is becoming a direct threat to the United States" since it will develop an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) within five years. Although the media depicted Gates's comments as a major "new assessment," North Korea's expanding missile threat to the United States and its allies has been long known. But it has been ignored, due to failures and self-imposed limitations on the part of the U.S. and its allies.
• The 2001 National Intelligence Estimate warned that "before 2015 the United States most likely will face ICBM threats from North Korea and Iran"...The NIE also predicted that a three-stage Taepo Dong would be able to reach all of North America with a payload sufficiently large to accommodate a nuclear warhead.
• More recently, the Department of Defense's U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Review warned in February 2010 that the global ballistic missile threat is "increasing both quantitatively and qualitatively, and is likely to continue to do so over the next decade . . . ballistic missile systems are becoming more flexible, mobile, survivable, reliable, and accurate, while also increasing in range."
• Diplomacy, engagement, international condemnation and United Nations resolutions have failed to stop North Korea from advancing these capabilities.  Clearly, the U.S. and its allies need to change tack: They should take steps to deploy sufficient missile defenses, not only to protect their citizens, but also show Pyongyang they mean business. It's unfortunate that while the North's threat has grown, the level of preparation on part of Washington and its allies has dwindled.
• Mr. Gates' remarks this week will be something major and new only if they trigger greater efforts to defend against Pyongyang's growing missile threat. Here's hoping that greater pressure in Washington from the new Republican Congressional leadership can convince the Obama administration to reverse cuts to U.S. missile defense budgets and programs