Questioning the Promise of Missile Defense

The False Promise of Missile Defense – Pavel Podvig in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists [link]

• Missile defense will never make a shred of difference when it comes to its primary mission--protecting a country from the threat of a nuclear missile attack.
• Missile defense eventually might be able to reduce that chance, maybe even considerably, but it will never reduce it to zero. In other words, the defending side would still face a threat that isn't much less credible than it was without missile defense. So the best missile defense can do is to replace one small probability with another.
• If a real confrontation ever comes about (and let's hope it never happens), we quickly would find out that missile defense offers no meaningful protection whatsoever.

Japanese Diplomat to Lead U.N.’s Nuclear Watchdog – Wall Street Journal [link]

• The International Atomic Energy Agency named Japanese diplomat Yukiya Amano as its new head after a long struggle among member nations, a shift from the 12-year leadership of Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei that a Western diplomat described as going "from a rock star to a quiet bureaucrat."
• In his acceptance speech, Mr. Amano said the IAEA must pursue a "dual objective" of blocking the spread of nuclear weapons while promoting the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. 

Iran Nuclear Talks Likely in Turkey – Reuters [link]

• Talks between world powers and Tehran on Iran's nuclear program will likely be in Turkey, the chief Western negotiator said Tuesday, while urging Iran to respond positively to U.S. engagement in the process.
• Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Burak Ozugergin confirmed Turkey had offered to host the meeting. "We are entering a critical period that should be used wisely," he said.
• Turkey, a predominantly Muslim NATO member and close U.S. ally that is also looking to expand economic and energy ties with neighboring Iran, said earlier this year it was trying to bridge U.S.-Iranian differences.
  

UN Must Empower IAEA, Not Rely on Sanctions – Reuters [link]

• The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog urged the U.N. Security Council on Monday to give it more powers to prevent the spread of atom bomb know-how and avoid relying on sanctions he said often did not work.
• He said that if three burning issues were not addressed soon -- the IAEA's weak legal authority, underfunding of the agency, and the threat of militants obtaining nuclear materials -- they would "could put the entire non-proliferation regime at risk".

A View from the Dark Side

Chavez Goes for Nukes – Washington Times Editorial [link]

• Venezuelan autocrat Hugo Chavez has announced that he has agreed to purchase some "little rockets" from Russia and also will begin work on a nuclear program, which he insists is for peaceful purposes. Yeah, right.
• To defend U.S. interests, the Obama administration needs to reassert the Monroe Doctrine prohibiting intervention in Latin American affairs and register a strong objection to any move by Venezuela toward Russian-backed nuclear capability.
• The threat of force doesn't need to be invoked immediately. Eventually, though, Mr. Obama must somehow establish that he's willing to use military power against more than teenage Somali pirates and the odd Islamic terrorist killed by remote control.