Iran in Perspective: There's Time for Diplomacy

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Monday, June 13, 2011.

Iran Accelerates Uranium Enrichment: Danger or Bluff? - Howard LaFranchi in The Christian Science Monitor [link]

• Iran’s announcement this week that it plans to speed up its enrichment of uranium...has spawned wide-ranging speculation on Tehran’s nuclear intentions.
• “It suggests they are determined to expand their enrichment capabilities despite the difficulties they are facing as a result of sanctions, and despite the fact they are more and more isolated,” Says Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association.
• “They’re shortening their decision time” between amassing the enriched uranium it would take to begin building a nuclear weapon and actually moving forward with building one, says Henry Sokolski.
• “There is still time to arrive at a diplomatic solution,” says Kimball. The international community’s focus, he adds, should be on “limiting the size of Iran’s enrichment facilities,” and requiring Iran to accept a much more extensive monitoring and inspections program.

What the Inspectors Say - The New York Times [link]

• If there is any good news in the I.A.E.A. report, it appears that Iran’s enrichment program is not advancing as fast as many feared — the result of the Stuxnet computer virus and sanctions that make it harder for Tehran to import needed materials from overseas.
• The Iranians said on Wednesday that they plan to triple production of the most concentrated nuclear fuel — the kind that could get them closer to a bomb.
• The United States and its allies need to tighten the current round of sanctions and start working on another Security Council resolution with even tougher sanctions.

Iran Nuclear Progress Report - The Wall Street Journal [link]

• The biggest Middle Eastern story continues to be the steady progress Tehran has made toward acquiring the components of a deliverable nuclear weapon. The most recent news is disquieting, to say the least.
• So far, neither American nor U.N. sanctions have been much of a brake on the mullahs' nuclear pursuits. If President Obama is serious when he says a nuclear Iran is "unacceptable," he'll need to do more than arrange another round of sanctions
  

U.S. Said to Turn Back North Korea Missile Shipment - David Sanger in The New York Times [link]

• The United States Navy intercepted a North Korean ship it suspected of carrying missile technology to Myanmar two weeks ago and, after a standoff at sea and several days of diplomatic pressure from Washington and Asia nations, forced the vessel to return home, according to several senior American officials.
• American officials have described the episode as an example of how they can use a combination of naval power and diplomatic pressure to enforce United Nations sanctions imposed after the North’s last nuclear test, in 2009.
  

The Fukushima Accident—Three Months In - James Acton and Mark Hibbs of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [link]

• It is now clear that the accident [at Fukushima] became more serious, more quickly than could be confirmed at the time. Reactor units 1, 2, and 3 are all believed to have suffered extensive meltdowns in which much—or perhaps virtually all—of the fuel in their cores melted.
• Unfortunately, there is still a real possibility of further significant releases of radioactivity into the environment.
• In the longer term...the [clean up] process could take decades to complete and the total cost is almost certain to run into the tens of billions of dollars.

Another Nuclear Hawk Glosses Over the Benefits of New START Verification

New START: From Russia with Glee - Keith Payne in The National Review Online [link]

• As of February 5, the day the treaty came into force, Russia already was below the ceilings mandated by the treaty both for deployed strategic nuclear launchers and for warheads.
• In contrast, the United States must make reductions, including a 25 percent cut in deployed strategic launchers.
• Negotiations are all about compromise — you have to give something to get something, right? Apparently not when it came to the reductions required by New START.