STRATCOM Feels the Budget Pressure

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Wednesday, July 27, 2011.

Top U.S. Nuclear Commander Signals Modest Tack on Updating Forces - Elaine M. Grossman in Global Security Newswire [link]

• The nation's top military commander for nuclear weapons on Tuesday said he wants to preserve the U.S. strategic triad of bomber aircraft, submarines and land-based ICBMs, but warned that modernization plans for aging platforms could fall victim to the budget axe.
• "We're not going to be able to go forward with weapon systems that cost what weapon systems cost today," said Strategic Command chief Gen. Robert Kehler … "I think that's true. Case in point is Long-Range Strike. Case in point is the Trident replacement. ... The list goes on."
• [Kehler said] that long-term defense procurement plans could run up against a funding wall. "The question remains: Where are we headed? And what will the budgetary impacts be on the force and on these plans?" Kehler said. "Everything is on the table."
• Kehler also said he is reorienting Strategic Command to plan more fully for handling a worst-case scenario in which terrorists gain access to weapons of mass destruction, while maintaining more traditional forms of deterrence, as well.

Stopping the Nuclear North - Joel Wit and Jenny Town in Foreign Policy [link]

• U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's announcement this weekend that North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kae Gwan will soon visit New York City is the strongest indication yet that the six-party talks...could resume as early as this fall.
• The first key to successful negotiations will be to keep expectations in check.
• Some nuclear steps forward appear to be in reach...A temporary moratorium on nuclear weapons and missiles tests would not be a permanent solution, but it could delay the North's ability to develop more sophisticated weapons. A new package of measures could irreversibly and verifiably end Pyongyang's plutonium program.
• The United States' first priority should be to seek greater transparency for [the North’s uranium enrichment] programs.
• Finding a way through this thicket will prove difficult and may well be impossible. But decision-makers in Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo don't have much more room to delay.

India-Pak Talks: India Insists on Realistic CBMs - Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury in India Today [link]

• India insisted on realistic confidence building measures (CBMs) on Tuesday when foreign secretary Nirupama Rao met her Pakistani counterpart, Salman Bashir, in Delhi to set the stage for the foreign ministers' meeting on Wednesday.
• In the two-hour meeting, Rao and Bashir gave the finishing touches to the agenda of foreign minister S. M. Krishna's talk with Khar, following which CBMs are expected to be announced to increase … trade and travel, liberalise the visa regime, release prisoners and allow easier exchange of academics and journalists.
• While CBMs regarding nuclear safety and defence exchanges that were considered at the June Islamabad meeting are also on the table, India harped on measures that were not ambitious in nature at this stage, sources reported.

US Nuclear Weapons to South Korea? - Ralph A. Cossa in The Korea Times [link]

• A growing number of South Koreans, including many prominent politicians, are calling for the reintroduction of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea, and an even larger number believe that the South should have its own independent nuclear weapons capability to match that of the North's.
• A decision by South Korea to develop its own nuclear weapons would … severely damage Seoul's international image and respectability, especially in advance of its hosting the second Nuclear Security Summit next year.
• The one audience in which the overwhelming majority was against either redeployment or an independent ROK nuclear weapons capability was comprised of ROK military officers and cadets. They more fully understand the implications and consequences of such actions. This argues for a broader attempt to similarly educate the public on nuclear issues.

Arms Race: 24 More Missiles to Be Added to Arsenal - The Express Tribune [link]

• Pakistan plans to add at least two dozen nuclear-capable, short-range missiles to its swelling arsenal this year, sources said in a revelation that indicates a growing "urge" in the powerful security establishment to seek "strategic parity in the region".
• If the government successfully achieves its target, this would be the highest number of missiles Pakistan had ever produced in a year.
• Sources said the plan was in line with Pakistan’s official policy of having what is rhetorically called ‘maintaining a minimum deterrence’ especially against India. They added that the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) — a high powered body that oversees Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal — was also supervising the production of new missiles.