Perry: Nuke Conflict More Likely Now Than During Cold War

Déjà vu - “During the Cold War we had a half dozen nuclear crises... I believed then, and I believe to this day, that we got through these crises and avoided a nuclear catastrophe as much by good luck as by good management,” writes former Secretary of Defense William Perry for Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. “When the Cold War ended, I breathed a huge sigh of relief—we had dodged the nuclear bullet... Surely we would never be so foolish as to allow that existential threat to reemerge.”

--“But for the last two years I have come to believe that I was too optimistic; indeed, that we are facing nuclear dangers today that are in fact more likely to erupt into a nuclear conflict than during the Cold War.” Over the last several years “trouble spots that could lead to a nuclear conflict” have emerged. “Specifically, I will look at nuclear dangers with Russia, China, North Korea, Pakistan, and ISIS.” Read Perry’s full analysis of the modern day nuclear threat here. http://bit.ly/1Qh6Kpd

Is Dr. Strangelove in the house? - “Moscow claims to be developing a nuclear super-torpedo that can radioactively contaminate economic targets on enemy coasts, which presumably includes fishing grounds… The Status-6 torpedo is designed to create ‘wide areas of radioactive contamination,’ according to the BBC translation. ‘The submarine-launched weapon can ‘destroy important economic installations of the enemy in coastal areas and cause guaranteed devastating damage to the country's territory.’”

--“[The] Status-6 [is] part of Perimeter, the Soviet-built automatic command system that is supposed to launch a retaliatory missile strike should Russia's leaders be wiped out by an American first strike. The implication seems to be that Status-6 will deter a U.S. nuclear attack. Frankly, given that Americans would be busy climbing from under the radioactive rubble created by Russian ICBMs, nuclear torpedoes would be the least of their worries.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1lLWAjb

Don’t fall for the Ohio replacement trick - “This week, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said this about the debate on how to fund the replacement for the Navy's Ohio class submarine: ‘I do believe that you only have so much money in the budget – you can call it and put it in some particular area, you can earmark it, you can do a lot of things but it's not going to change the amount of money.’ It's good to hear the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee state the obvious about the so-called ‘National Sea-based Deterrence Fund,’” writes Ryan Alexander for US News.

--“So far the appropriations committees, which write the bills that actually spend federal funds, have declined to place any money in such a fund. Other members of Congress who believe that Congressional prerogatives would be short circuited by a fund that spends money on components of a submarine – or any other weapon system – that hasn't been approved by the Congress, should oppose this budget charade.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1OitOxY

Tweet - @ArmsControlNow: Unable to attend today's briefing on the recent IAEA report & the #IranDeal? Look for the audio & transcript later → bit.ly/1NOY4Qf

Russian cruise missiles - “Vladimir Putin has said he hopes nuclear warheads will not be needed to deal with terrorists or anyone else, after Russia launched cruise missiles from its submarine at Syria,” writes Serina Sandhu for The Independent. “During a meeting in the Kremlin, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told the President that Kalibr cruise missiles had been fired by the submerged Rostov-on-Don submarine from the Mediterranean Sea for the first time. President Putin said the new cruise missiles could also be equipped with nuclear warheads - but that he hoped they would never need them.”

--“‘Naturally, we do not need that in fighting terrorists, and I hope we will never need it’… Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov later sought to temper [the] suggestion [stating], ‘Of course not, and the president has stated this, that there is no need to use any nuclear weapons against terrorists, as they can be defeated through conventional means, and this is fully in line with our military doctrine.’” Read the full story here. http://ind.pn/1lOCu83

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard : How do we prevent #ISIS from getting dirty bomb? For starters, #Russia & the US need to talk. http://bit.ly/1TsURek

Slow motion nuke cleanup - “Had the cleanup at Los Alamos National Laboratory gone as planned, this weekend would have marked the closure of a decade-long effort to remediate the effects of a 70-year legacy of making and maintaining nuclear bombs”, writes Elizabeth Miller for the Santa Fe Reporter. Instead, the deadline stated in the 2005 consent order, an agreement between the US Department of Energy and the lab on how and when to clean up radioactive and toxic waste stored on site… came and went on Dec. 6.”

--“‘We hear that we can’t afford to do cleanup and at the same time the US government is ready to embark on a trillion dollar modernization of nuclear forces, so budget arguments against cleanup ring pretty hollow in our view,’ [Jay] Coghlan [Director of Nuclear Watch New Mexico], says. ‘Go ask the public what they want, and ask northern New Mexicans what they want. They want cleanup over weapons.’” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1XZ1oDo

Tweet - @Cirincione : There could be significant scientific an environmental benefits flowing from the Iran agreement. # via theworldpost http://huff.to/1lxFEh7

Quick Hits:

--“Revisiting South Africa’s Bomb,” by Jeffrey Lewis for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1Q4I2s6

--“Civil Nuclear Cooperation with Pakistan: Prospects and Consequences,” testimony by George Perkovich from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. http://ceip.org/1SQiE7m

--“North Korean leader Kim's H-bomb claim draws scepticism,” by Reuters. http://reut.rs/1NXyj6Q

--“I Like Ike (and the Nuclear Taboo),” by Michael Krepon for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1OhSExY

--“The Forgotten Threat: North Korea as America’s Most Durable, Dangerous and Diverse Enemy,” by Matt Cavanaugh for War on the Rocks. http://bit.ly/1M57eqE

--“Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Names Rieser Award Recipient,” at The Bulletin for Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1IXxjb6

Events:

--“The Wisdom of a Grand Nuclear Bargain with Pakistan,” with Toby Dalton, Gaurav Kampani, and Sameer Lalwani. Monday, December 14th at 3:30 PM at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC. RSVP here.http://bit.ly/1jQrPZc

--“Reducing the Risk of Nuclear War in the Nordic/Baltic Region,” featuring Barry Blechman, Alex Bollfrass and Laicie Heeley. Tuesday, December 15th from 12:00 - 1:30 PM at Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW, 8th Floor, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1kRxVdf

--“Implementing the Iran Nuclear Deal: What's Next?,” featuring numerous experts. Thursday, December 17th from 8:30 AM - 3:45 PM at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lsMjIF