The Unholy Nuclear Triad

Nukes are so last century - “The United States is slated to spend about one trillion dollars over the next thirty years to maintain and rebuild its nuclear arsenal. That breaks down to roughly $35 billion a year, a fortune in this time of limited defense spending. Is it worth it? The Obama administration’s arsenal-modernization plans are also raising concerns among America’s non nuclear allies, who see the effort as inconsistent with the president’s stated nuclear-disarmament goals,” write Tom Collina and Will Saetren.

--“There are two main ways to save on nukes. First, the total number of nuclear warheads could be cut. The 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) sets a cap of 1,550 on U.S. and Russian deployed, accountable strategic warheads each by 2018. Second, while the two sides are temporarily stuck at New START warhead levels, the United States could reduce the number of new delivery systems it plans to build in the future.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1O8ZuFp

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Why buy a new nuclear cruise missile when JASSM-ER can do the job? ow.ly/W04Jj

An accident waiting to happen - “The nuclear triad… is an accident born of military service rivalry and contractor proposals,” writes Ploughshares Fund President Joe Cirincione for Huff Post. “The vague talk at the GOP debate is matched by similarly vague discussions about the triad at hearings and in official statements. This posturing inflates the value of these weapons and obscures their threat to our own security… We have not had a military mission that required the use of even one of these weapons in 70 years, and neither has anyone else.”

--“The [new generation warhead, bomber, missile and submarine] contracts are working their way through the Pentagon and Congress right now, with little opposition... There is a policy-procurement gap. Contracts race ahead of policy. Unless the president and his successor act soon, they will lock us into building weapons we do not need at a price we cannot afford… Judging from Tuesday's debate, we got a lot of work to do.” Read the full piece here. http://huff.to/1NxOBxK

Tweet - https://twitter.com/FAScientists/status/677495767322488832: What the #nuclear triad is, why it matters via @KingstonAReif @CNN http://cnn.it/1Oax0l9

B61 upgrade’s side effects may include new arms race - “With a new tail-kit to increase accuracy, the B61-12 will be an upgrade of a free-falling gravity bomb first built in the 1960s. President Barack Obama asked Congress to allocate $643.3 million for the project for fiscal year 2016. The total cost of refurbishing the bombs could exceed $10 billion. After the U.S. successfully tested a non-nuclear version of the bomb in Nevada this summer, Russia’s deputy defense minister, Anatoly Antonov, decried the move as ‘irresponsible’ and ‘openly provocative,’” writes Lindsay Wise for McClatchy DC.

--“‘It’s important what impression potential adversaries get about what the U.S. is up to,’ said Hans Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists... [He] and other critics believe the B61-12 could violate the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review, a pledge by the Obama administration that ‘life-extension programs’ to modernize old nuclear weapons won’t result in new military capabilities.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1Z7nZeb

Troubling implications of nuclear smuggling - “Three times in the past 16 years — Bulgaria in 1999, France in 2001 and Moldova in 2011 — containers of highly enriched uranium have been seized by authorities, according to an article published online last month by the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit investigative news organization. In each case, the person holding the uranium said it was part of a larger cache for sale,” writes the Editorial Board of the Washington Post.

--“But the three containers of highly enriched uranium have something in common that until now has been kept secret. According to the article, forensic analysis by U.S. and French nuclear scientists strongly suggests that the materials came from the same source. The theft raises the unsettling possibility that someone has tried three times since 1999 to sell highly enriched uranium that could be used for a nuclear explosion or a dirty bomb.” Get the full story here. http://wapo.st/1O6O0sk

Sanctions end in sight - “Iran's aim of having sanctions against it lifted by the end of January under a deal with major powers is ‘not impossible’, the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog monitoring its implementation said on Wednesday. ‘Our inspectors are on the ground and they are observing their activities, and with their report I can tell that Iran is undertaking activities at a very high pace,’ [IAEA director-general Yukiya] Amano said, though he declined to provide details on those activities,” write Shadia Nasralla and Francois Murphy for Reuters.

--“The restrictions Iran must put in place include drastically reducing the number of centrifuges installed at its underground enrichment sites, removing the core vessel of a reactor at Arak and shrinking its stockpile of enriched uranium. ‘If your question is that Iran is planning to complete their preparatory activities in two, three weeks' time, I don't have a reason to doubt it,’ he said. ‘If everything goes well it can go very smoothly, but if there's some mishandling it will take more time,’ he said. ‘It's difficult to say.’” Get the full story here. http://reut.rs/1ma6FH2

Iran deal monkey wrench - “A congressional resolution that toughens provisions of the US Visa Waiver Program... H.R. 158, has already passed the House of Representatives and has been sent to the Senate for its consideration, along with a similar Senate resolution,” writes Shireen Hunter for LobeLog. “If either resolution becomes law, any European businessman or tourist who has travelled to Iran in the last five years—in addition to dual nationals—will face the prospect of long delays in obtaining a visa to visit the United States and might not get a visa at all.”

--“Make no mistake: this is an indirect way of limiting Iran’s future economic relations with Europe... Should this resolution become law, it could endanger the very implementation of the JCPOA. Some Iranian officials have already indicated that such a law would violate the agreement because it stipulates that, following implementation, none of the P5+1 parties should take any action that could impede Iran’s economic and other interaction with the outside world.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1QP74KC

India’s hidden nuclear city - In early 2012, members of the nomadic Lambani tribe and the Environment Support Group inquired about excavation in India’s southern Karnataka state. “Officials warned its lawyers that the prime minister’s office was running the project… It finally become clear… that [it was] a project that experts say will be the subcontinent’s largest military-run complex of nuclear centrifuges, atomic-research laboratories, and weapons- and aircraft-testing facilities when it’s completed, probably sometime in 2017.”

--“According to retired Indian government officials and independent experts in London and Washington, [the project’s aim] is to give India an extra stockpile of enriched uranium fuel that could be used in new hydrogen bombs, also known as thermonuclear weapons, substantially increasing the explosive force of those in its existing nuclear arsenal. India’s close neighbors, China and Pakistan, would see this move as a provocation: Experts say they might respond by ratcheting up their own nuclear firepower.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1P6RIiJ

Quick Hits:

-- “PolitiFact Sheet: Military spending under Obama and Congress,” by Louis Jacobson and Amy Sherman for PolitiFact. http://bit.ly/1jYUz23

--“When Will Republican Candidates Speak Out About Pentagon Waste,” by William Hartung for Huff Post. http://huff.to/1QqMotV

--“Huge Omnibus Appropriations Package: An Unwieldy Mess,” by Council for a Liveable World. http://bit.ly/1QP5AjB