Former Defense Secretary: Nukes Remain Number One Threat

Bill Perry’s nuclear nightmare - “The 88-year-old former defense secretary is troubled by the risks of catastrophe from the very weapons he helped develop. Atop his list: a nuclear terror attack in a major U.S. city or a shooting war with Russia that, through miscalculation, turns nuclear. [In an interview earlier this month he noted that] a terrorist attack using a nuclear bomb or improvised nuclear device could happen ‘any time now - next year or the year after,’” writes Robert Burns for the Associated Press.

--“In his scenario, a small group gets its hands on enough uranium to fashion a crude nuclear bomb, flies it undetected to Washington's Dulles International Airport and slips the bomb into a warehouse in the District of Columbia. From there it is loaded onto a delivery truck and a suicide bomber drives it onto Pennsylvania Avenue midway between the Capitol and the White House. When detonated, it kills 80,000 people instantly, including the president. ‘The danger of a nuclear bomb being detonated in one of our cities is all too real.’” Read the full story here. http://apne.ws/1mCZd7C

Tweet - @FAScientists: Memories of Whistling Past #Nuclear Armageddon via @nytimes nyti.ms/1OH0CXB

Germany believes Iran will stick to deal - “‘I very much expect that there is no interest among the decisive actors in Iran - the Iranian government, the Iranian president, and elsewhere - in diverging from the agreements made in Vienna last summer," Martin Schaefer, [a German foreign ministry spokesman], told a news conference. ‘The day on which Iran fulfills all of its obligations from the Vienna agreement, which will result in international sanctions being suspended or revoked, is getting closer and could even be reached this month,’ he said.”

--“Volker Treier, managing director of Germany's DIHK Chambers of Commerce, said German companies were hoping that a timetable to dismantle Western sanctions would be presented in the first quarter and that this process would then quickly start. [He] said that ‘once sanctions on Tehran were lifted, the growth rate of German exports to Iran would probably be in double figures. German-Iranian trade volume could quadruple to around 10 billion euros within five to seven years from around 2.4 billion euros in 2014,’” write Paul Carrel and Michelle Martin for Reuters. Get the full story here. http://reut.rs/1SxbTJI

Tweet - @ArmsControlNow: Implementation of #Irandeal, Cuba visit high on Obama's 2016 wish list - http://CNNPolitics.com ow.ly/WzGHC

China’s nukes get new command - “On December 31, China inaugurated three new military forces: a general command for the army, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Strategic Support Force, and the PLA Rocket Force. The latter, which replaces the Second Artillery Force, will be in charge of China’s nuclear arsenal. Unlike the Second Artillery Corps, the Rocket Force will command all three legs of China’s nuclear triad, rather than just controlling land-based nuclear missiles,” writes Shannon Tiezzi for The Diplomat. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1RdBckJ

Waste and wishful thinking - “Proponents of the Precision Tracking Space System were not shy about touting its supposed benefits. The planned network of nine to 12 satellites, orbiting high above the equator, would detect missile launches and track warheads in flight with great precision, [they] said. Based on those promises, the Obama administration and Congress poured more than $230 million into design and engineering work on PTSS starting in 2009. Four years later, the government quietly killed the program before a single satellite was launched,” writes David Willman for the Los Angeles Times.

--“With at most 12 satellites, the system could not have provided continuous tracking of missiles across the Northern Hemisphere, as promised. That would require at least twice as many satellites. PTSS could not have reliably distinguished warheads from decoys and harmless debris. The satellites’ sensors were not powerful enough. The Missile Defense Agency’s cost estimate — $10 billion over 20 years — was way off. PTSS would have cost at least $24 billion over that time period, according to an independent assessment done for the Pentagon and Congress.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1QNV5yM

Tweet - @BulletinAtomic: Our best nuclear weapons stories of 2015. If "best" can be used in the same sentence as "nuclear weapons." ow.ly/Wxw2r

Quick Hits:

--“Declassified: How the Pentagon planned to nuke the Soviet Union and China during the Cold War”, by Thomas Gibbons-Neff for the Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1mmB6K6

--“Ronald Reagan’s Disarmament Dream”, by Jacob Weisberg for The Atlantic. http://theatln.tc/1UtC2Yk

--“N. Korea may be readying for thermonuclear weapon tests: S. Korean military”, by Yonhap News. http://bit.ly/1PdEkHb

Events:

--"Strategic Deterrent Forces: A Foundation for National Security." Featuring Cecil Haney, U.S. Strategic Command; Franklin Miller, The Sowcroft Group; Keith Payne, National Institute for Public Policy; and Thomas Karako. January 22 from 10:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, located at 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Second Floor Conference Room, Washington DC. RSVP by email at intlsecurity@CSIS.org. http://bit.ly/1Z5FIGd

--"Centrifuges, Sanctions and Security." Featuring Paul Carroll of the Ploughshares Fund. January 27 from 6:30-9:00 p.m. at Dominican University, Caleruega Dining Hall, 50 Acacia Ave., San Rafael, CA. Dinner reservations required by Jan. 22. RSVP online.http://bit.ly/1IOuOh8

Dessert:

Sorting fact from fiction in Fallout 4 - “While radiation ravaged ghouls and burly super mutants are easily identified as works of fantasy, how much of Fallout and its post-apocalypse is based in fact? Few people know more about the damaging effects of a nuclear war than Dr. Michael J Mills, a scientist working with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. In 2014, [he] published a study detailing the global climate effects of a nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India using less than one percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. The results were terrifying,” writes Steven Messner for War is Boring.

--“If Fallout 4 gets one thing right, it’s that life after the apocalypse would be a desperate struggle. Though nuclear stockpiles have diminished significantly since the 1980s, there’s still around 10,000 nuclear weapons — half of which are in active service. Though it might not be enough to create the irradiated desert of Fallout 4, it’d be more than enough to potentially wipe humanity from the earth entirely. The only difference being there won’t be conveniently located vaults to escape the fallout.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1ZM41Ga