Former Officials Condemn New Nuclear Weapons

Questioning America’s Nuclear Status Quo - Experts and former administration officials agree. America's nuclear modernization plans are dangerous. “The explosive innards of the revitalized weapons may not be entirely new, they argue, but the smaller yields and better targeting can make the arms more tempting to use — even to use first, rather than in retaliation,” write William Broad and David Sanger in The New York Times.

--“Already there are hints of a new arms race. Russia called [recent] B61 tests ‘irresponsible’ and ‘openly provocative.’ China is said to be especially worried about plans for a nuclear-tipped cruise missile. And North Korea last week defended its pursuit of a hydrogen bomb by describing the ‘ever-growing nuclear threat’ from the United States.”

--The U.S. plans to spend $1 trillion modernizing its nuclear arsenal over the next 30 years. Andrew C. Weber, a former assistant secretary of defense and former director of the Nuclear Weapons Council, says that, “it’s unaffordable and unneeded.” According to Weber the advanced cruise missile program is estimated to cost up to $30 billion. “‘The president has an opportunity to set the stage for a global ban on nuclear cruise missiles,’ Mr. Weber said in an interview. ‘It’s a big deal in terms of reducing the risks of nuclear war.’” Read the full story here. http://nyti.ms/1Q2opjO

See also- Hillary Clinton says she may oppose Obama’s nuclear modernization program, by Lee Fang for The Intercept. http://bit.ly/1O7cC12

Implementation day on the horizon - “U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Thursday the implementation of a nuclear deal agreed between Iran and six world powers was only days away, allowing tens of billions of dollars in sanctions against Iran to be lifted. He said he discussed implementation of the nuclear deal with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif during a phone call on Thursday. They also talked about tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia triggered by the execution by the Saudis of a Shi'ite cleric,” writes Lesley Wroughton for Reuters.

--“‘The foreign minister made it clear to me they intend to complete their obligations with respect to implementation day as rapidly as possible,’... Kerry told reporters. ‘We are currently engaged ourselves in making certain that we're prepared to move on that day. And I think it could come -- without being specific -- sooner rather than later.’ Kerry said the United States would continue to ensure that Iran lives up to its commitments under the nuclear deal and press for the release of American prisoners ‘that have been unjustly detained’ by Iran.” Get the full story here. http://reut.rs/1Z8S778

Meeting expectations - “An evaluation of the [Iran nuclear] agreement must begin with how it is being implemented. On this front, the JCPOA has exceeded expectations, as the Iranians have moved more quickly than experts expected to dismantle the nuclear program. A secondary measure of the agreement’s success is its impact on the struggle inside Iran between hardliners and pragmatists,” writes Ilan Goldenberg for The National Interest.

--“The most important step that Iran has taken thus far has been shipping 25,000 pounds of low-enriched uranium to Russia, leaving it without enough LEU for a bomb. This step is vital because it is irreversible, since the LEU is never coming back and would instead need to be produced again… Iran is nearing completion of other requirements, including dismantling the requisite number of centrifuges, reconfiguring the Arak heavy water reactor and allowing for more intrusive inspections.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1UM4yV6

More nuclear smuggling - “Georgia's security agency said Monday it has arrested three men suspected of peddling radioactive cesium, the latest in a series of operations against nuclear smugglers in the ex-Soviet nation. The agency said Monday that the men were arrested in the capital, Tbilisi, while trying to sell an unspecified amount of cesium-137 for $100,000. It didn't say when the arrest was made or give any other details,” according to The Associated Press.

--“Georgia and some other ex-Soviet nations have seen numerous attempts at contraband trade in radioactive substances. There have been fears that if such materials fall in the hands of extremists, they could be used in a ‘dirty bomb,’ a device intended to contaminate large areas using conventional explosives.” Read the full story here. http://nyti.ms/1W3osfy

Containing North Korea - “North Korea’s latest nuclear test, its third successful one, was most likely intended to test a compact device suitable for a missile warhead. If that is correct, the test takes us closer to the point where Pyongyang’s limited nuclear arsenal could pose a real threat to other nations in the region. Japan and South Korea, both within range of North Korea’s already operational missiles, are deeply concerned—as they should be,” writes former Secretary of Defense William Perry for Politico.

--“Unfortunately, as long as the administration continues its North Korea strategy of the six-party talks, which have failed so far and are likely to continue to fail without a change in strategy, these threats will only become more pressing.” Read the full piece here. http://politi.co/1ncpmKQ

Tweet - @Cirincione: The @ctbto_alerts network is an amazing global resource. It's time to make it permanent & fully funded. http://bit.ly/1TStj1H

North Korea is no joke - “While the explosion Wednesday was too small to be caused by what we normally think of as a thermonuclear weapon — a two-staged device with megatons of nuclear yield — the more likely possibilities are not comforting. What North Korea probably did was test a ‘boosted’ device ... an essential technology for reducing the size and weight of nuclear weapons. If North Korea is going to fit nuclear warheads on the long-range missiles it has paraded through Pyongyang, boosting is a significant step,” writes Jeffrey Lewis for The Washington Post.

--“We are forgoing any meaningful opportunity to slow or constrain their nuclear development. We are not making any effort to open their appalling system; in fact, we are helping close it off. Perhaps one day we’ll stop laughing and notice that a brutal, nuclear-armed North Korea that terrorizes its citizens and its neighbors isn’t all that funny. They’d like that.” Full story here. http://wapo.st/1RJiPCT

Tweet - @BulletinAtomic: New on North Korea: After this week’s nuclear weapons test, it is #China’s turn to wonder about a knife in the back: ow.ly/WU7Jw

Canada pushes for new treaty - “Canada plans to kick-start a long-stalled international effort aimed at ridding the world of the key ingredients needed for nuclear weapons, The Canadian Press has learned. The renewed push this week by Canada's United Nations ambassador to Geneva to spearhead the creation of a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty or FMCT, comes as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to attend U.S. President Barack Obama's Nuclear Security Summit,” writes Mike Blanchfield for CBC News.

--“‘A nuclear terror attack anywhere in the world would have catastrophic human, political, economic and environmental consequences,’ Trudeau was told by federal officials who prepared the briefing documents. ‘While the immediate risk of such an attack may appear to be low, states and terrorist groups are known to be actively seeking nuclear or radiological weapons capabilities.’” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1N4U2CR

Tweet - @ArmsControlNow: Russia to deploy new divisions on Western flank, form nuclear regiments, via @YahooNews yhoo.it/1RJg0BA

Quick Hits:

--“Democrats, frustrated with Obama on Iran, float new sanctions proposals,” by Karoun Demirjian for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1VNrmoK

--“Jeremy Corbyn talks common sense on nuclear weapons,” by Katrina vanden Heuvel for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1Kbefqx

--“Japanese student activist to keep up lifelong fight against nuclear arms,” by Miya Tanaka for The Japan Times. http://bit.ly/1Zi8KNE

--“Space weapons and the risk of nuclear exchanges,” by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1l33KPv

Events:

--“Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Role of the U.S.-Japan Alliance.” Featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, Ambassador Nobuyasu Abe, former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations for Disarmament Affairs, Andrew Weber, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs, and Narushige Michishita, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. Moderated by Vikram Singh. January 14, 2016, 1:30pm - 3:00pm. Located at the Center for American Progress, 1333 H St. NW, 10th Floor, Washington, D.C.. RSVP here. ampr.gs/1JwFaSN

--“Strategic Deterrent Forces: A Foundation for National Security." Featuring Cecil Haney, U.S. Strategic Command; Franklin Miller, The Sowcroft Group; Keith Payne, National Institute for Public Policy; and Thomas Karako. January 22 from 10:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, located at 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Second Floor Conference Room, Washington DC. RSVP by email at intlsecurity@CSIS.org. http://bit.ly/1Z5FIGd

--“Centrifuges, Sanctions and Security.” Featuring Paul Carroll of the Ploughshares Fund. January 27 from 6:30 p.m. - 9:00 p.m. at Dominican University, Caleruega Dining Hall, 50 Acacia Ave., San Rafael, CA. Dinner reservations required by Jan. 22. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1IOuOh8