On the radar: $357 billion sub program threatens Navy budgets; Can we afford the triad?; Turkey to get a missile defense radar; Another botched missile defense test; The costs of military action against Iran; More to Qom; Reductions by pen stroke; and Krauthammer’s nationals recognition.

September 2, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

A sub fleet the Navy can’t afford? - The Navy is choking on the price tag of its proposed fleet of ballistic missile submarines, which could cost some $347 billion over the boats’ lifetime. “The 12-sub program could be delayed and cut by two subs, sources said. And it will be funded within the shipbuilding account, not in a separate account as the sea service's top admiral has advocated,” reports Inside Defense (paywall). http://ow.ly/6jMIW

--In the hunt for savings in its FY13 budgets, the Navy is considering cuts to the carrier fleet and dropping plans for new cruisers. The Navy’s goal of a 313-ship fleet could fall to between 225 and 285.

Editor’s Note - Budget pressures are pushing the Navy to pair down its surface and sub fleets. DoD Planners should consider whether it is worth sacrificing ships with conventional missions in order to reconstitute the Cold War submarine fleet.

The triad is on the table - Budget pressures are putting the squeeze on costly plans to recapitalize the whole of the nuclear triad of subs, bombers, and ICBMs. Analyst Tom Collina gives context on how tightening defense budgets could force a rethink about whether new nuclear systems are affordable. http://ow.ly/6jNZI

--The military might not think so. “We’re not going to be able to go forward with weapon systems that cost what weapon systems cost today,” said STRATCOM chief Gen. Robert Kelher in July. “Everything is on the table.”

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Turkey to station missile defense radar - As part of NATO plans for defending against Iranian ballistic missiles, Turkey has agreed to host an AN/TPY-2 radar at one of its military bases. The move advances the Obama administration’s phased adaptive approach to missile defense in Europe. http://ow.ly/6jO6c

Not that missile defense works yet - Yesterday’s test of Raytheon’s SM-3 block IB missile defense interceptor failed to hit its target. The block IB is an upgrade to the interceptors now deployed on Aegis ships in the black sea. Aviation Week reports. http://ow.ly/6jPn8

About those Iran plans - Most defense analysts accept that the consequences of using military force against Iran would be disastrous. Following yesterday’s reports of Pentagon plans for an Iran invasion, Peter Crail at Arms Control Now asks if proponents of military strikes have even considered the unimaginable costs in blood and treasure of an Iraq-style invasion of Iran.

--Military and defense leaders have. Former JCS Vice Chairman Gen. James Cartwright called the costs “astronomical” and benefits uncertain. More simply, former Mossad Chief Meir Dagan called the Israeli military option “the stupidest thing I have ever heard.” http://ow.ly/6jRq4

Iran’s nuclear program heading underground - Iran is transferring more uranium centrifuges into its more fortified underground facility near Qum, The New York Times reports.http://ow.ly/6jSbH

--This comes shortly before the release of an IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program, due any day now.

How to quickly scrap unneeded nuclear weapons - “In 1991, with a stroke of his pen, President George H. W. Bush forever changed America’s nuclear force structure,” writes Peter Grier in Air Force Magazine about what became known as the “Presidential Nuclear Initiatives.” http://ow.ly/6jTnq

Hagel and Sestak on defense budgets - “I think the Pentagon needs to be paired down” said Sen. Chuck Hagel to The Financial Times in response to proposed cuts to defense spending. http://ow.ly/6jSZ8

--Former Congressman and Admiral Joe Sestak argues that better Pentagon planning and defense acquisition changes are necessary to get the military the resources it needs during an era of tighter budgets. http://ow.ly/6jSsQ

Keeping sports above politics - says @cirincione: “Don't often say this: Read Krauthammer today. An ode to #Nationals baseball. Glad I'll be at game tomorrow. http://ow.ly/6jTPI

Off the radar - Have a good holiday weekend. EW will return on Tuesday the 6th.