Iran Struggling with Nuclear Setbacks

On the radar: Mechanical troubles, desperation for Iran’s program; US, Russia, China all doing nuclear upgrades; North Korea’s tests on a map, poster; Commission looks at MOX; Lt. Gen. Klotz on arms control; Confidence for GBI failures; and a “Safe, Harmless, Giant Atomic Bomb.”

October 18, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Setbacks for Iran’s nuclear program - Mechanical problems with the centrifuges at Natanz, the subject of two new ISIS reports, have “hurt Iran’s ability to break out quickly,” David Albright told the Washington Post. “Their procurement efforts are less thought-through, and they’re getting caught a lot more, which suggests that they are becoming more desperate.”

--“Without question, they have been set back,” said Albright. http://owl.li/70Vgl

Get the Iran Reports Here - “Iran’s Advanced Centrifuges” and “Performance of the IR-1 Centrifuge at Natanz” by David Albright and Christina Walrond of ISIS.

Tweet - @cirincione: “An Iranian nuclear bomb is neither imminent nor inevitable, reports WasPost in front page today.”

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On nuclear modernization - “The claim that they are modernizing and we are not is baloney...I don’t know when these guys woke up, we have been spending billions of dollars modernizing our nuclear weapons over the last decade," said Hans Kristensen in response to the talking point that Russia and China are updating their nuclear weapons while the US is not.

--Global Security Newswire has the full story on the recent HASC hearing on Russian and Chinese nuclear modernization programs. http://owl.li/70ViR

Sizing North Korea’s Tests - Several analysts at SAIC released a paper using geospatial and seismic data to locate and estimate the yield of North Korea’s nuclear tests. They conclude that the data indicates yields of 0.9 kilotons at a depth of 200 meters (2006) and 4.6 kilotons at 550 meters (2009).

--Jeff Lewis sums up the paper and shows it in convenient poster format. http://owl.li/70Vk4

Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future - The Commission just released a draft of its report on managing the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. MOX plans were assessed. On cost, the report finds, “Capital cost increased because of need to build reprocessing and MOX fuel fabrication plants. Operating costs also increased due to the high cost of fabricating fuels containing plutonium. Cost of electricity increased a few to several percent. Technology is relatively mature with evolutionary improvements largely in the hands of industry.”

--On security, MOX has an “Increased proliferation risk. Creates highest inventories of separated plutonium.” Full PDF report here. http://owl.li/70Wwm

Quote - “No one should ever expect quick results in the arms control business. Preparing the proverbial battlefield is an indispensable first step to success in any negotiation, and that takes a lot of hard work, persistence…and patience,” said Lt. Gen. Frank Klotz, former Commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, in a CFR blog on the nuclear arms control agenda. http://owl.li/70Vmp

Comfort on GBI failures - Extensive ground testing and modeling have demonstrated with high confidence the source of the failure,” said Missile Defense Agency spokesman Richard Lehner in a statement on the most recent test failure of the Ground-Based Interceptor. Cost of one failed test: $300 million. Bloomberg reports. http://owl.li/70Voe

Atomic Toys - Gizmodo has a gallery of toys from the early-Atomic era - including one “Safe, Harmless, Giant Atomic Bomb." http://owl.li/70XZE